Filenews 29 August 2021 - byAndreas Bibissis
The West is still trying to recover from the shock of the Taliban's comfortable occupation of Kabul, while in Ankara, the Erdogan government is comfortably sending signals that it is ready to cooperate with the new dominant state of affairs in Afghanistan. At the same time, the Turkish President appeared, in their talks with the European leadership, ready to assist the international community in its effort to help the Afghan people.
Developments in Afghanistan came at a particularly critical stage for the Turkish President, who has begun to feel discomfort at home as the pronouncements and promises he makes from time to time become less and less acceptable among public opinion. And this discomfort Erdogan is trying to convey outwards in order to win at various levels on the international as well as on the European stage.
Turkey, as is well known, was one of the countries with the largest military presence in Afghanistan, a fact that Ankara exploited at various levels but mainly within NATO. The leadership of the North Atlantic alliance has always run in support of Turkish positions, taking into account the large number of soldiers that Turkey sent to Afghanistan and other areas where NATO was active. This tactic was convenient for both sides. On the one hand, NATO declared its presence and on the other hand, Turkey took full advantage of the fear of many member countries and strengthened its own participation with the appropriate quid pro quo.
Turkey is pursuing a specific strategy, attempting to exploit every vacuum that is created, whether NATO is involved or not. In addition to sending soldiers, Turkey is also promoting its own military industry. That is why it seeks to participate in every mechanism or mission so that it can have the appropriate benefit.
The crisis that followed with the disorderly withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan created on the one day a vacuum that Turkey wants to fill. Following a "successful recipe" as it did in Syria and Libya, as well as in other parts of the world. That is why Erdogan also appears to be the reliable interlocutor whom both westerners and the Taliban can trust.
In return for consideration
Talking to European officials over the past ten days, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not failed to record the demands he has on the European Union in exchange for keeping Afghan refugees as far away from Turkey's western border as possible. The quid pro quo that Turkey is asking of the EU are two very specific conditions - membership of the European security mechanism and visa liberalisation.
Last Sunday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by telephone with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, with the main topic of discussion being the situation created by developments in Afghanistan. Erdogan, experienced by such talks, especially when he knows that his interlocutor is anxious about the side effects of such developments, did not miss the opportunity to put on the table the quid pro quo he is asking for.
The Turkish Huriyet, transferring the Turkish position as reported by Erdogan to Charles Michel, wrote that "the latest developments in Afghanistan have once again demonstrated the importance of Turkey's accession to the European Union's defence and security programme, also known as PESCO"." Noting, at the same time and not by chance, that Turkey is meeting the demands of many EU countries to evacuate their citizens from Afghanistan.
On the occasion, the two leaders also discussed relations between Turkey and the European Union. According to Hurriyet, Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that Turkey looks forward to the resumption of accession negotiations; there will be an update of the Customs Union process and the Agreement of March 18th. On the issue of visa liberalisation in particular, Ankara is asking Brussels to implement it in its entirety.
Speaking about Afghanistan, Erdogan suggested that developments in the Central Asian country demonstrate the importance of Turkey's accession to PESCO. A purely European mechanism which Turkey wants to join in order to gain benefits for its own military industry as well.
Erdogan told Michel that he wants a smooth transition in Afghanistan, adding that if the necessary measures are not taken, the pressure on migration will increase even more, which will be a serious challenge for all countries. Erdogan said Turkey is hosting at least 5 million refugees, underlining that the country cannot handle an additional "migrant burden." Stressing that the whole issue cannot be overcome with symbolic steps and that Turkey cannot be expected to assume the international responsibilities of third countries.
Finds closed doors
Turkey has been trying to join the Permanent Structured Cooperation mechanism, or PESCO, since it was established. To no avail due to the reactions of Cyprus and Greece (who have been participating since the founding of PESCO). Last spring Turkey tried to join one of the projects promoted by PESCO. Countries outside the EU are also eligible to participate in PESCO projects and there has already been participation from the USA, Canada and Norway.
However, in this case too, Turkey found closed doors. Mainly because it was judged that it did not meet the conditions set by the EU for participation in this programme. One of the reasons was Turkey's aggressive actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, against Cyprus and Greece.
The fact that it has not been able to participate in one of the programmes does not mean that Turkey will not come back. And already with the developments in Afghanistan is making moves to open the door of PESCO. Because some countries may be blocking Turkey's accession, but there are others, such as Germany, which favour a Turkish presence in the mechanism. He also claims that with its participation in PESCO, Turkey will be able to normalize its relations with Cyprus and Greece.
How much the EU's attitude to Turkish membership of PESCO differs will become apparent very soon. The informal meeting of EU foreign ministers will discuss developments in Afghanistan and in this context some countries may throw Turkey's participation in PESCO into the discussion.
The European Council's answer to the question of four Italian MEPs who have asked whether the EU sees Turkey's participation in the mechanism as a special case is also awaited with interest.
Turkish aid to the Taliban
Turkey will use the strategic agreement with Afghanistan to help the Taliban in the military and defence industries, Abdullah Bozcurt wrote a few days ago. From Stockholm, where he is, in yet another revealing report about Erdogan's moves, Bozcourt said Erdogan is using Libya's recipe in Afghanistan as well.
Turkey was in Libya through a strategic relationship agreement approved by the Turkish Parliament in 2018. The relevant legislation is entitled Strategic Partnership and Friendship Agreement. This is a framework agreement that allows the Turkish Government to use it as it sees fit. And as the case of Libya appeared, this 2018 legislation was enough to allow Turkey to deploy troops under the guise of providing advisers to help the Libyan factions allied with Ankara.
Speaking on Turkish television on August 18th (Bozcourt mentions in his text) Erdogan spoke of the goal of reaching an agreement with the Afghan authorities: "For example we could reach a bilateral agreement as we did in Libya."
According to confidential Turkish military documents received by the Nordic Monitor, Turkey had 759 soldiers in Afghanistan in 2016: three generals, 265 officers of various ranks, 204 non-commissioned officers, 278 soldiers and nine civilians.
Of course Erdogan's plans depend on the positive approach of the Taliban and on whether they comply with existing agreements or are open to new agreements. So far, what Erdogan is hearing from the Taliban leadership seems to be mostly positive. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu welcomed the Taliban's recent remarks on Turkey.
The strategic agreement that Turkey has with Afghanistan, among other things, refers to cooperation through the competent authorities, without specifying which ones they are. An ambiguity that paves the way for the participation of the Turkish army, intelligence services, and state defence industries in Afghanistan.
