Filenews 7 July 2021
Could we, at someday, live with the coronavirus just as we live with the flu? These two have significant similarities but also striking differences.
As more and more countries reduce the restrictions on the crown, most recently England, the messages of at least British ministers are changing. Looks like it's time for the rules to be replaced by personal decisions. The mantra now is about life with coronavirus, as with seasonal flu.
The common characteristics of influenza and coronavirus
The pandemic has caused countless comparisons between coronavirus and influenza and both diseases have some common characteristics. Both are contagious, potentially deadly respiratory virus. They can spread through aerosols, droplets and contaminated surfaces. And they share some of the same symptoms in the form of fever, cough, headaches and fatigue. And next winter, one challenge doctors will face in hospitals will be separating Covid patients from those with flu.
The striking differences
But there are striking differences between coronavirus and influenza that are important for public health. The coronavirus spreads faster than the flu and can cause much more serious diseases. His symptoms may take longer to appear and people tend to transmit it more, making them more prone to transmitting it.
Seasonal influenza has existed for a long time, with the protection provided by vaccines limiting deaths and outbreaks. An analysis of previous flu cases suggests that the R value for seasonal influenza – the number of people to whom the virus is transmitted – is on average 1.28. This means that a group of 4 people with flu can transmit the virus in 5 more.
But the coronavirus spreads much more easily. For the Delta variant that is now growing worldwide, R is estimated at about 7, so in the absence of vaccines and other interventions, a single case will infect an average of 7 others. Of course, as vaccination programs continue and the virus continues to spread, immunity to the coronavirus will drive R further down, but how low it will be remains unknown.
Comparison of deaths from coronavirus with that of influenza
Also, coronavirus is more deadly than flu, mainly because the vulnerability hits the elderly. For example, seasonal flu killed about 44,505 people in England during the three combined flu seasons from 2015 -16 to 2018 -19. The same number of deaths was recorded in England in the first nine weeks of 2021. A major difference is that the number of influenza takes into account the protection of influenza vaccines where the effectiveness of 50% is considered good.
Vaccines against coronavirus should have a greater proportional impact on deaths from the virus. And so far, the most common Covid vaccines used in the European Union reduce the risk of hospitalization by coronavirus by more than 90%. As a result, the vaccination program has significantly reduced deaths from coronavirus.
However, vaccines do much more to prevent deaths than to transmit the virus, so cases continue to increase for a long time to come. The older the pandemic, the more likely you are for the virus to find vulnerable people who have not yet been vaccinated or are not adequately protected from the vaccine. And while vaccines dramatically weaken the relationship between cases and deaths, they're unlikely to wipe him out.
The global influenza monitoring network
Again, however, the differences between the coronavirus, influenza and their vaccines can easily eliminate a more fundamental issue. Learning to live with a coronavirus like we live with the flu doesn't mean society can accept it easily.
Each year, an integrated global monitoring network detects which variants of influenza are circulating and are likely to pose a threat next season. This information determines which strains enter the annual flu vaccines that are then available in pharmacies. Throughout the flu, public health authorities record and report cases of influenza and, if necessary, offer new advice.
Of course, there is still no such global system for the crown. And despite the well-oiled system that protects people from flu, the number of deaths from the virus in a typical year is still significant. In fact, every winter, the flu exerts enormous stress on the NHS, sometimes reaching its limits. And for health services, living with coronavirus means learning to endure a double wave every winter, as the coronavirus and flu come together.
In conclusion, then, coronavirus is more contagious and more deadly than influenza and we do not yet have the same global protection mechanism.
