Filenews 24 June 2021 - by Marilena Panagi
In the reverse reading of all the numbers, "read" the reasons why almost all epidemiological indicators began to show an upward trend in the last 24 hours despite the fact that the first indications began to appear from a fortnight ago.
The vaccination coverage rate has reached around 63% for the first dose of the vaccine. However, this percentage concerns only the adult population of Cyprus, which means that at the moment in Cyprus a percentage of people approaching 50% of the total population remains completely unvaccinated. At the same time, of the percentage of people who have been vaccinated, only about 45% are fully vaccinated which means that citizens who have received only the first dose remain largely unprotected from the virus which can easily continue its course in Cypriot society.
But even of the people who have been fully vaccinated, at least 5% have not developed immunity and this percentage, if translated into absolute numbers, leads to a few thousand people who also remain unprotected. The fact that people who are fully vaccinated can be infected with the virus, transmit it or even need hospitalization has long been confirmed at international level.
The data released yesterday by the Ministry of Health confirm the calculations:
- 70% of new cases involve people under 40 years of age.
- Vaccination coverage at the age of less than 40 remains at very low levels, so the number of people who remain unprotected is correspondingly high.
- At the same time, however, of these individuals, 4% are fully vaccinated.
- And about 16% have a history of vaccination with the 1st dose, but remain prone to the virus as they have not acquired sufficient immunity.
- The remaining 80% of cases have no history of vaccination.
- Finally, over 90% of people admitted for hospitalization are unvaccinated.
The fact that the Ministry of Health since last week has re-entered the process of warning citizens by inviting them to be vaccinated, in the hope that even by taking the first dose of the vaccine, the percentage of citizens who would be protected or even somewhat protected, against it by far, compared to any other mutations of the virus would increase. There is also the more contagious Indian mutation, or the "D" strain of the coronavirus, in circulation.
The new "cycle" of the pandemic, which revolves this time around the Indian mutation, has been recorded in the UK for about four weeks, with the scene then repeated elsewhere in the world.
The fact that a new outbreak of the pandemic has also begun to emerge in Cyprus should probably not be surprising and should probably be expected as the data indications are based on the vaccination coverage of the population, the lifting of almost all measures and restrictions, the psychology of citizens and the need of the country to attract tourism to stimulate the economy.
In essence, at the beginning of May, two cases of the Indian mutation were recorded involving persons who arrived by air in Cyprus and were detected during their examination at airports, while at the end of the same month it became known that the strain "D" had also been detected in citizens who had no travel history, which confirmed the existence of this new mutation in Cyprus as well.
Epidemiological indicators, although at first glance, seemed stable for several weeks, had started to show an upward trend from the previous fortnight with the first indication given by the number of daily cases which for about a week remained stuck at the same level despite any fluctuation in the number of tests carried out on a daily basis.
The number of new cases remained stable, around 60 -65 during the three-day period, during which, due to the weekend and the Monday holiday, a very small number of molecular tests had been carried out through the tracing process from which, unsurprisingly, new cases arose as close contacts of people who tested positive for the virus in the previous days were being examined.
However, at a time when the daily results presented a "frozen" picture in the number of new cases, public hospitals began to give their own indications in the last ten days when very slowly, but steadily, there began to be an increase in the number of patients with coronavirus admitted for hospitalization.
The very slow growth rate in patient admissions, however, is expected by scientists, since the virus is now mainly transmitted among young and overwhelmingly unvaccinated citizens who do not develop severe symptoms and do not usually need inpatient care.
It is even estimated by some that in the next period, and despite any further increase in the number of daily cases, there will be no dramatic change in the number of hospitalized patients, but this may start to change if young people infected with the virus come into contact with older or elderly people. It is no coincidence that the possibility of a third dose of vaccines is under discussion internationally. The United Kingdom has already taken a decision on this and in Cyprus a number of scientists have publicly advocated such a prospect.
The Indian mutation
> It's six times more contagious than the British mutation.
> Causes more aggressive spread of the virus.
> It affects more young people who have more intense socialization.
> Detected primarily in unvaccinated individuals.
> Has also been detected in Cyprus in people without travel history. Bearing in mind that the sequencing process carried out in ECDC specialised laboratories is time-consuming, there is a high probability that the new strain has penetrated the community and is causing an increase in cases and serious incidents.
Reflection on rapid diagnostic tests
The rather 'frozen' picture in the number of new cases recorded in the previous period is attributed by some scientists to the way in which rapid diagnosis tests are carried out in the population in recent times since, with the application of SafePass, a large portion of the population is not examined and at the same time some are examined every three days or on a weekly basis. Those tested belong to the same group of citizens (they have not been vaccinated, three weeks have not passed since the first dose of the vaccine, have not been sick in the last six months, or are obliged to be examined for professional reasons). Students are now no longer tested after their obligation to take a rapid diagnosis test has ended with the closure of schools for the summer holidays. This data raises the concern that possibly several people who are infected with the virus but show no symptoms continue to unknowingly spread it to other citizens.
Indicators are going up on the coast
The increasing trend in the number of new cases and in the positivity rate began to emerge in the provinces of Limassol and Famagusta a few weeks ago. In the last fortnight, with the lifting of almost all restrictions but also due to the general relaxation of citizens, due to the summer weather, in the two specific coastal areas which attract a large volume of citizens mainly at weekends, the deterioration of the epidemiological picture is even more pronounced.
