Filenews 17 May 2021
The course of crown cases is expected to be downward, with double digits in the summer, estimates the member of the Advisory Scientific Committee, Professor of Microbiology/Molecular Iology of the Medical School of the University of Nicosia Dr Petros Karagiannis, while expressing concerns about the introduction of the mutant Indian strain from the United Kingdom to Cyprus by tourists. It notes that as a precaution against this strain, vaccination coverage of the population should reach 80-85%, as recommended by British scientists.
Dr Karagiannis welcomed the fact that our epidemiological picture continues to improve. "I think that despite all the easing so far things are going well. I hope that with today's further easing there will be no minor flare-ups, on the contrary we will continue to see a downward trend. Of course this will depend on the further vaccination coverage that is necessary and on our own behaviour over the next few weeks so that we can fully shield ourselves against the virus," he said.
Asked to comment on the situation in the summer, the Professor said that we will be "quiet" in the summer if and when there is no introduction of any of the mutant strains currently moving to some countries, especially the Indian strain, which has been imported into the UK.
He explained that in the UK there is a large community of Indian origin in the UK from which this strain has been introduced and has made additional mutations, which scientists are investigating.
The Indian strain, he pointed out, is 50% more contagious, which is what scientists are concerned about, which is why they are accelerating vaccination with the second dose of AstraZeneca to shield citizens of the country.
"I believe that at the moment this strain has not been widely transmitted but there is a fear that it will prevail as long as it is easily transmitted. That's why they're also trying with vaccination coverage to stop it because it seems to be being treated by vaccines. But we may need to increase vaccination coverage further from 65% to 70%, and we may have to go up to 80 to 85%. That's what scientists in the UK say. They are concerned about this strain and say that the higher the vaccination barrier, the better," he noted.
Asked what numbers and levels we will range from in the summer, Dr Karagiannis said that "the ideal for us will be to fall well below the three-digit numbers, to fall below 100 levels. I think it is possible with our own good behaviour and we are already seeing the positive results from the vaccination coverage that we have even with the first dose."
When more people are fully vaccinated, he continued, we may also limit the transmission of the virus so that we have double-digit numbers - the virus will not completely disappear from the community due to the mobility of the population and tourists we would expect.
Asked if there are risks of importing the Indian strain from UK tourists, he said all of them would come with their vaccination certificates and negative tests, expressing hope that we would not have the virus introduced to the island in this way.
The sampling currently taking place at airports, he noted, does not show a large number of positive people.
Asked to comment on whether we would have a fourth wave in the autumn, the Professor said that no one knows that. "I believe that if our vaccination coverage is such that we have reached herd immunity and perhaps higher rates, it is possible to avoid it. Maybe what we're going to have is micro-flares here and there that are controlled. This will depend on whether a strain emerges that is problematic and where vaccines are not effective."
Asked if the third dose of vaccine would be necessary, Dr Karagiannis pointed out that this is something that is widely discussed. "I think a third dose will be necessary that will act as a support for existing doses. At the moment we do not know how long immunity from vaccinations will last and it is good to strengthen this ammunition against the virus and furthermore because third-dose vaccines will also contain the mutated strains then there will also be protection against them."
Cna
