Filenews 30 May 2021 - by Frixos Dalitis
The next day of today's election is a hot potato for all those who want to have both a say and a role in the Cypriot State. The new electoral map, as it will be formed from tonight, also pre-lists the political scene of the country, certainly with a view to 2023 and the presidential elections. Party balances within the House will determine the axis on which political forces will move both within the legislature until the presidential elections, and outside it in terms of setting up bridges - plans for partnerships have already begun to be built.
Today's result will determine the position of power of everyone in the next day's game and the moves that will be made. At the same time, however, the composition of the new Parliament, as shaped by today's result, pre-lists a major challenge that will have to be managed, not only by the Government and the ruling party, but also by the traditional opposition parties. At the end of the day, a Babel House favours no one.
On the road to the Presidential election campaign
The day after the parliamentary elections essentially marks the beginning of the presidential election campaign, with a small stopover for local government elections. It is evident both from the moves made in the previous period and from the political discourse of the election period that ACPL and DIKO are preparing the ground for the creation of a pole for the presidential elections, with each of the two parties, however, wanting to have the leading role. Andros Kyprianou talks about the progressive change that can only be made a reality with a strong ACPL, calling on the people of the Left to send a message to the Government that the countdown has begun. Nikolas Papadopoulos, on the other hand, constantly stresses that change will arise through a strong DIKO, asking voters for the role of regulator. Role, which will certainly be limited not only within the House, but also in the context of any processes that arise for the Presidential elections.
Averof Neophytou, who monitors the movements of the two other party leaders, knows that a first today for DISY with as much retention of percentages as possible will be a victory for both him and the party, maintaining the role of the main player of the game in view of continuity. A continuation that in Pindarou recognize that it will not be easy, in terms of Cyprus as well as internal governance. They understand that they have a cost of managing power for a second five years, under extremely difficult circumstances and with a strong influence from external factors such as the pandemic and its effects. The alarmist president shrugged off the parliamentary campaign primarily by investing in the partisan patriotism of the alarm electorate as well as in mobilizing moderate voters who have been removed and are basically resenting the hot potato of corruption. It is essential to maintain the leading role in the party scene.
The scenarios of the ballot box and the House of Pluralism
Capturing the intentions of the electorate from all the polling surveys that have seen the light of the polls leaves open the scenario of a House with the largest number of parties it has had so far. In other words, it is not excluded from today's result that a House of nine or more parties will emerge tomorrow. This scenario may not be the most likely, but it is not very remote, as six parties certainly have a guaranteed parliamentary presence and at least three party combinations claim entry to the House. In particular, in addition to the DISY, AKEL, DIKO, EDEC, Ecologists and ELAM who have "locked" their position in the new Parliament, the door of the legislature is "knocking" with claims by the Democratic Party of Marios Karoyan, which is easily or hardly expected to secure its entry into the Legislature. From then on, Solidarity and Generation Change "acrobat" according to the polls between the parliamentary seats and the non-entry to the Parliament. Further back but with much less chance and the Party of Hunters (KEKK).
Babel Parliament
Disy President Averof Neophytou often refers to the dilemma of a Babel Parliament. His petition is, of course, mainly aimed at holding DISY voters' protest votes to smaller parties or shrinking abstention as the ruling party records difficulties in rallying.
Apart from that, however, the entry into the House of many small party formations will result in the creation of a dysfunctional legislature, which does not favour anyone. Androu Kyprianou's reports that "without a strong ACPL, change cannot be made", are a call to rally and limit the party's losses to smaller party formations and to claim to strengthen the position of the Left party within the Parliament. This means fewer dependencies from smaller parliamentary parties for battles within parliament. On top of that, there are also issues on the scale that have to do with funds that will be opened in Parliament by smaller parties, which will embarrass Ezekia Papaioannou. Such as the Position of the Ecologists on horizontal voting, which they are certainly expected to bring back for adoption.
A call for a strong DIKO for strong change is addressed daily during the election campaign by Nikolas Papadopoulos, who in recent days has also added to his speech the report of a lost vote. The entry into the House of many small party formations certainly weakens what the DIKO seeks to maintain in the political scene and this concerns the regulatory role it wants to have within the House. It is a prime example of the debate on the state budget, which was approved by its vote. He put suffocating pressure on the Government by putting the natural record files to the Auditor-General and then approving the budget. The Government has finally found an alternative to the positive vote of other parties in order to complete the magic number of "29" MPs to form a majority in the House.
Beyond that, however, the entry of many small party formations, plus the empowerment of others, such as the ELAM and the Ecologists, automatically means the removal of seats from the larger parties. And the losses will not only be from the ruling party but also from the ACPL and the DIKO. Let us not forget that in a House of eight parties such as the outgoing one, the five smaller parties had won only 13 of the 56 seats. EDEC, Citizens' Alliance and Solidarity from 3 and Ecologists, ELAM from 2 seats. In fact, Pavlos Mylonas moved to the benches of DIKO from the Citizens' Alliance and Anna Theologos, from the Citizens' Alliance became independent. Moreover, Solidarity actually stayed with two deputies since George Papadopoulos was one inside and one out because of the electoral process for the seat of Limassol, until he was finally left out. None of these parties entered the 3rd division and none managed to win a fourth seat.
As a result, the remaining seats were shared by the three major parties as follows:
DISY 18, ACPL 16, DIKO 9 (along the way they became 10 with Miller and last year with 7 after the departure of Angelos Votsis, Marinos Musiuta and Giorgos Prokopiou).
This correlation of forces allowed the creation of such alliances in the House that ensured its functionality. It is recalled that 7.2% allowing entry to the 3rd division of seats automatically means at least 5 MPs in the party that will achieve this.
The reforms in the waiting...
One of the major issues and challenges that the Government will have to manage with the composition of the new Parliament is, of course, the reforms that are pending. Local Government, Justice, the modernisation of the Public Service. It is, of course, a main question of how the Government will be able to operate and carry out its government's work, with a Parliament hostile to it and with the opposition already entering the electoral rhythms in the run-up to the presidential elections. Will the necessary partnerships be achieved? How much water will the government be able to put in its state by "vaccinating" government bills with proposals from other parties? These are some key questions that should Presidential and Pindarus find the answers in view of continuity. Of course, dialogue and consultation will be required before any bill reaches the House, so as to avoid the phenomena of either permanent rejection, or of many amendments and subsequent referrals by the President.
Test the presidency of the House
The electoral provision in the new Parliament, the number of seats and the establishment of fronts for the presidency of the Legislature, will be the first test that the political forces will be called to give post-election. During the presidential race, names were dropped in the behind-the-scenes debate. The promotion to the post of second-tier in the Republic of Cyprus was linked to the prospect of emerging cooperation for the 2023 presidential elections. More specifically, it was linked to ACPL-DIKO cooperation and the publicly proclaimed position of Ezekia Papaioannou in support of a candidate who is not a party leader. The name of the Speaker of the House was heard for the position of Speaker of the House, Nikolas Papadopoulos, provided that the green light from his party would be guaranteed in support of a joint candidate.
From then on some people keep another card in case they do not find them in order to move to a choice by the Ecologists and in particular Charalambos Theopetou forming a front of three and those others who want to give a positive vote to this choice.
Parties of the stars
They appeared on the party scene with a pannier change, as ambassadors of the new and the different. Political forces "born" either to fill a gap in political life, or by professing a revolutionary discourse with a mood of conflict with the... old party establishment. Other times, as a result of a split in party conflict, with the leaver or the party, they resort to the solution of the creation of a new political force. Over time and for different reasons in each case, the new party forces were dissolved and "erased" from the party map. Today, a total of 21 parties are registered in the register of parties, but only 15 of them go to the parliamentary elections, others with a full and partial combination of candidates. These include, of course, the four oldest parliamentary parties DISY, ACPL, DIKO and EDEC, which are the only ones that have lasted the course of time, maintaining their percentages and ensuring a permanent parliamentary presence, with ups and downs in their percentages.
What is remarkable, however, which certainly explains the record number of candidates we have in this election, is that a total of eight parties have registered in the last year alone, with some of them only a few weeks ago. It is typical that the "Generation Change" and the "Back Support Vindication Movement" were only registered in the party register on 29 April last year. The "Change of Generation" even descends on the elections with only a month to live. The second party does not go to the polls.
From January to April they were registered in the register of parties:
-the United Republican Party of Cyprus (E.R.K.K.)- its founders are presented to be Russians who have Cypriot citizenship and reside in Limassol. Its president, based on its website, is Yulia Ovrina-Komnini, whose name had passed up to the process at provincial level in ACPL but was "cut off" at the level of the Central Committee. He's not going to the polls.
-the "Independents-Alliance of Subversion" movement. It was deleted by the Registrar and brought before the Court.
The last three years have also been written the "Active Citizens- Movement of United Cypriot Hunters", the "Patriotic Coalition" and the "Awakening 2020", which are coming to the elections.
In April 2018 it was written as a party and the Democratic Party under Mario Karoyan which in the process also gained parliamentary representation through the Platform of Democratic Forces in which the three members of the DIKO, Angelos Votsis, Marinos Musiuttas and Giorgos Prokopiou, participate in the elections in full formation.
In a flashback, we will discover several parties that did not go completely unnoticed, nor simply held a place on the party register. Parties that have come to have achieved a strong parliamentary presence. A more recent example was the Citizens' Alliance, which was founded as a party shortly after the 2013 presidential election, with George Lillekas as its president, carrying the percentage it had received in the presidential elections as an independent with only the support of the EDEC. The parties also joined the march, after their disagreement over the support of Nicos Anastasiades in the 2013 presidential elections. In the 2014 European elections, he received 6.78% claiming a seat in the European Parliament. In the 2016 parliamentary elections he received 6.01% by electing three MPs. He ended his parliamentary term with only George Lilikas AS AN MP, as Pavlos Mylonas joined the DIKO parliamentary group, while shortly after the 2018 presidential elections Anna Theologos left, who became independent. In the 2018 presidential election, George Lilikas received 2% as a candidate, while in the 2019 European elections, in cooperation with the Ecologists, they received 3.29%. In today's elections, the Citizens' Alliance participates with certain candidates on the EDEC ballot, with the information also wanting to join the EDEC post-election.
In the 2014 European elections, the formation of "Message of Hope" under Stelios Platis, which involved academics and other personalities, had appeared. They got 3.83%. But they did not go to another election, nor did they ever register as a party. The 2016 parliamentary elections also included the Social Flag Movement, which received 0.58%. In the 2011 race, the EUROKO also took part for the last time, taking 3.88% and electing two Members. In 2016, before the parliamentary elections, he joined Solidarity. In 2011 the Civil Rights Office (LASOK), ZYGOS (Movement of Independent Citizens) and KY.PRO.S. also participated in the race, all receiving less than 0.5%.
Going even further back to 2006, the EUROKO at the time had received 5.75%, while this was also the last electoral presence of the EDI (United Democrats), a party founded by the former President of the Republic George Vassiliou and to which ADISOK joined, the leavers in the 1990s from the ACPL. In 2006 he failed to enter the House, receiving 1.22%, while in 2001 he received 2.59%. In 2006 we also meet the Free Citizens Movement which received 1.22%, EURODI with 0.44% and the Political Hunters Movement with 0.23%.
In 2001 we also meet the ADIK of Dinos Michaelides, who had left the DIKO and received 2.16% ensuring a parliamentary presence. Nikos Koutsou's New Horizons secured a 3% stake and brought out Chris Clerides in Nicosia.In 2004 there was a split in the DISY. On 6 July the Prodromos Prodromos, Rikkos Ertokritou and Christodoulos Taramuntas, in a letter to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, notified their decision from now on to belong to the newly created party "European Democracy" (EURO.DI). In 2005 Dimitris Syllouris, Christos Clerides, Rikkos Ertokritou and Christodoulos Taramuntas, in a letter to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, notified their decision from now on to belong to the newly created party "European Party".
These are just a few typical examples of the last 20 years for parties and political forces that came together dynamically and in protest on the political scene, but were extinguished after a few years.
