Filenews 21 March 2021
Has the coronavirus pandemic peaked in the world? Scientists are trying to answer the crucial question by looking at mutations.
The question of whether we have reached the peak in the pandemic of COVID-19 around the world is explored in a recent publication in the journal Nature scientists.
The literature is reviewed by the Professors of Medicine of the EKPA Dimitrios Paraskevi (Deputy Professor of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine) and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of ekpa).
Initially the evidence is encouraging, but legitimate concerns are raised about the possibility that mutations may escape pre-existing immunity. Also, in several areas population immunity and vaccination coverage are low which means that populations are largely vulnerable.
Vaccinations have reduced cases and deaths
On 11 January, a record 740,000 new CASES of COVID-19 were recorded worldwide, followed after 2 weeks by the peak in the daily death toll (14,400). After this peak, the numbers are constantly decreasing until 20 February, when around 360,000 cases were recorded and fewer than 9,500 deaths.
The decrease in the number of cases and deaths occurred as a result of increasing vaccinations worldwide. As of March 16, nearly 90 million people have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, while a total of about 390 million doses have been administered.
Some are optimistic.
Although new pandemic waves with a large number of cases will occur locally, however, with regard to outbreaks and deaths on a global scale, "the worst case scenario is a thing of the past", estimate researchers who are optimistic that the pandemic has already peaked.
The decrease in the number of cases is partly due to the large number of people already infected. This phenomenon is pronounced in densely populated areas such as New York, or in countries such as India and Mexico. "These places have already overcome the most dangerous phase of the pandemic."
Other countries, however, where larger percentages of the population are still affected, i.e. have not developed immunity, for example, in China, Singapore and South Korea are likely to continue to use public health measures to control future spread of the virus.
The unknown signs of the pandemic
However, some researchers estimate that there are unknown signs regarding the pandemic, such as the duration of ias against re-infection, as well as the unpredictability of virus biology and human behaviour. The number of cases has started to increase slightly again since the end of February and their daily number is around 438,000 cases.
The researchers, who argue that the number of cases will not approach the maximum number in January, cite the results of seroepidimological studies from different parts of the world that estimate population exposure to the virus. These studies highlight the actual infection rates of the population.
In India, for example, a study carried out in late December and early January estimated that 22% of people over the age of 10 had contracted the virus. This figure exceeds 40% in major cities such as New Delhi and Mumbai. In other regions ias rates are lower than those in India.
A meta-analysis published in the Lancet journal on March 8 found that India had the highest rates of ist (~20%) to the general population. In contrast, the corresponding figures were 7% for America, 5% for Europe and 2% for the Western Pacific states. If in areas with low prevalence populations increase their mobility when the restrictive measures are relaxed there is a risk of an increase respectively and the spread of the virus.
Source of uncertainty the mutations
The development of mutant strains is another source of uncertainty, scientists estimate. The outbreak in the United Kingdom was a consequence of the rapid spread of the most infectious strains in group B.1.1.7. European countries are at high risk of a similar outbreak as the one that occurred in the UK at the end of last year.
A similar thing happened in Brazil with the P.1 strain. and especially in the city of Manaus, where there was a large outbreak of COVID-19 last April. Researchers estimate that, by last October, up to 76% of the population could have been infected, which contributed to a reduction in cases at the time.
But COVID-19 hospitalizations began to increase significantly in the January period - exceeding the numbers seen last April. This increase coincided with the detection and rapid spread of P.1 in the city.
Cases have continued to rise across Brazil and the country is an example of an ominous path for other parts of the globe.
Source: sputniknews.gr
