Filenews 11 January 2021
In the third week of lockdown there will be noticeable results of a reduction in cases, said the member of the Advisory Scientific Committee, Professor of Microbiology/Molecular Iology of the Medical School of the University of Nicosia, Dr. Petros Karagiannis, adding that the relaxation of strict restrictive measures can be done in February if the epidemiological picture allows.
He noted, however, that there has been some decline in the number of cases in the last three days. "On Friday we had the first downward trend. This is also shown by the positivity of the tests that come out positive every day that now range just above the 3 that is considered the safety ceiling. So we're marginal right now. I hope it's really like that,"" he noted.
He said the increased number of admissions to hospitals was something to be expected, and said he expected the number of admissions to increase in the coming days. "We've been warning about this for a long time. Of course with the numbers we had over Christmas, which we had beaten and 900 cases, it's next that we're going to see the hospitalizations right now. In the next few days the number of people in hospitals may increase further before we see a drop,' he added.
Yesterday, he continued, we had more than 50 patients in the Intensive Care Units, which is the highest number we have had so far, and pointed out that there are currently too many patients in lower age groups in our hospitals.
Asked if the record of deaths would continue, Dr Karagiannis said deaths would continue to be seen for some time because there are elderly people who are in intensive care. If the elderly are protected with the vaccine, then the deaths will also disappear, he noted.
Noticeable reduction in cases at 3 weeks of lockdown
In response to a question about when a marked decrease will be observed, Professor Karagiannis said that a decrease will be recorded if the numbers we are seeing at the moment are real and continue downwards. "Maybe by the end of the three weeks of lockdown we'll be at levels close to 100. On the other hand if there were any particular transmissions over Christmas we will see them this week,' he explained.
He pointed out that lockdown will limit positive people more at home, but that there is always a risk of them transmitting domestically more easily as they will all be at home. "But I hope that with the numbers we have at the moment we will not see any particular flare-ups. In our case it will help even though in other European countries the hard lockdown does not seem to have helped much," he noted.
He said noticeable results would be seen if not this week perhaps next week adding that the large number of tests being done, as well as the operations that are still open to monitoring what is happening, should continue.
Asked if the new mutated strain of the virus contributes to the large number of cases, he said that in the case of Cyprus we do not know because we do not know how widespread this strain is. He said that in Britain where scientific studies have found that the virus is 50-55% more contagious, there are more hospital admissions and more deaths. "I hope we avoid it," he noted.
Vaccination will help, positive impact towards the end of the month
Dr Karagiannis said vaccination will help and we may see its positive impact towards the end of the month when all residents in old homes will now develop immunity.
He noted that according to the Ministry of Health vaccination in nursing homes has been completed by 80%. "If we protect this population then hospital admissions will also fall and as vaccination progresses until mid-March if we manage to have an immunity of around 20-25% this will still be more positive because it will significantly reduce the likelihood of transmission. Of course the ideal is to reach 60-65% which we will not see until the summer. But as vaccinations and warm weather increase and the fact that we will be in open spaces, I think we will see a relaxation of measures from mid-March. Measures could be improved from February if our epidemiological picture improves significantly,' he added.
Dr Karagiannis said a study has been carried out in Britain by the astraZeneca vaccine team on all the mutations identified so far - the English strain, South Africa and that of Nigeria. "These strains have been used in the laboratory with antibodies from vaccinated people and they appear to be identified and neutralised which is a very positive element at the time when vaccinations are ongoing," he added.
Source: CYPE
