Filenews 2 January 2021 - by Marilena Panagi
28% of people over 85% infected with coronavirus die. So did 8.5% of people between the age of 75-84. The lower the age, the lower the percentages. The death rate among 65-74 year olds falls to 2.5% while for the 55-64 age group it does not exceed 0.75%. The percentages are correct and confirmed. "Relieve" and/or "relax", the younger ones, scare the elderly, cause great concern to the elderly. Simple reading of percentages, however, gives the wrong messages and creates pitfalls.
According to official data from Cyprus, in the last three months, 70% (69.9% according to the latest national report) of people who are shown after an examination, positive for the virus (cases), show symptoms and of these, 5% need inpatient care.
This means that 30% have no symptoms at all and the remaining 65% will not need hospitalization. Again, with a first reading these rates are reassuring. There is no reason to question them, they are confirmed at international level.
But as the months go by, this new virus begins to give new signs to experts. Thus, these percentages must now be added another one since of the 70% of people who show symptoms, (whether or not they need hospitalization), 30% will live the "post-COVID" syndrome, i.e. will continue to live with symptoms, the same or similar to those caused by coronavirus disease, for a long time (possibly over time to prove that these problems will turn into "years" for some people).
"As the number of cases increases, the more people will be at risk of developing severe symptoms," says Professor Konstantinos Tsioutis, who as a doctor monitors patients who have gone through the adventure of the crown and underlines that this also applies "for younger ages".
'COVID19 disease (i.e. the disease caused by the coronavirus) is an infection that mainly affects the respiratory system, although it can affect several other systems and organs of the body(neurological system, heart, kidneys)'.
Because it is easily transmitted (more easily than the flu with which it is often compared), "in recent months there has been a huge number of people being affected every day. A significant proportion of people with COVD19 do not have symptoms (so-called asymptomatics), but the majority of recorded cases show symptoms, which can vary in severity and duration."
In fact, explains the Professor," age is the factor that affects to a greater extent the severity of COVID19 infection. That is why we see that most people who die are over the age of 70." However, "it should be noted that COVID19 also causes symptoms in younger people and in several cases, the disease lasts longer than 3 weeks".
The data in detail
Concepts such as 'mortality', 'serious disease', 'hospitalisation in ICU' or 'duration of the disease' have been included in our daily lives for the last ten months. What do these concepts mean and how do they translate?
-Mortality (i.e. death due to COVID19). Data show that it is recorded by 28% in people over 85, 8.5% in those aged 75-84, 2.5% in those aged 65-74 and 0.75% in those aged 55-64.
However, as Mr Tsioutis explains: "as a percentage it seems low in the youngest age groups but it should be noted that the largest proportion of people with coronavirus belong to the age group of 18-60 years".
So, "the more people who get sick, the more people will die."
-Serious disease: This can be determined in several ways: e.g. people who need hospitalization because they usually have low oxygen, or people who need admission to the ICU because they suffer multiple organs".
The data shows that "5% of people with symptoms end up in hospital and 50% of those hospitalized are under 64 years of age".
-ICU hospitalization: 5-10% of nurses need ICU hospitalization. Indicatively in Greece, where the number of rescued is quite high, 50% of rescued patients are younger than 65 years of age.
- When a man is admitted to the ICU, he has a 30-50% chance of dying.
-A person who ends up with an ICU usually has symptoms 7-10 days before entering the ICU,
-He remains in the ICU for 10-15 days, and after leaving he needs hospitalization in a common ward for a few days before being discharged.
"Then this person needs rehabilitation several weeks."
-Duration of disease: the severe sufferer, that is, the man, who will be hospitalized in ICU, has a duration of disease of at least one month and needs an additional several weeks of rehabilitation.
However, as organised studies show, 'the long duration of disease does not only concern people who show very serious symptoms'.
TIME WILL REQUIRE TWO KEY QUESTIONS
1. Does this situation leave permanent damage?
"This remains unknown, as some monitoring time has to pass. These individuals do have some damage to their organs, such as spirometry disorders, heart muscle infection, impaired renal function. However, over time, their symptoms improved, though slowly."
2. How is it treated?
'Although directives have been issued (e.g. by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the United Kingdom), the way in which this condition can be diagnosed in a timely manner and treated is individualised. That is, every person with a history of COVID19 and persisting symptoms should undergo a detailed medical assessment, a detailed history should be taken, a careful and thorough clinical examination should be carried out.
Depending on the findings, the investigation (e.g. by spirometry, chest X-ray, heart ultrasound, blood tests) will be appropriately planned and the treatment of symptoms and rehabilitation will be adapted. In addition to medical care with appropriate medication, these individuals may need special nutritional advice, physical therapy and psychological support. Therefore, the approach of these patients is often multifactorial and needs input from many different specialties".
Post-COVID19 syndrome
SYMPTOMS REFERRED TO AND DURING
Post-COVID19 syndrome, is a concept that is now added to the flock of all the other scientific terms that enter our homes daily by television and radio from the day the coronavirus made its appearance on earth.
What exactly is this syndrome, how much does it affect us and why does it worry scientists?
-It concerns people who are infected with the virus, show symptoms and after their release, either have a negative result or maintain for a long time the positive result in laboratory tests but do not transmit the virus.
-Several studies now show that symptoms of COVID19 disease may persist for more than 4 weeks (persisting symptoms), but also beyond 12 weeks (post-COVID19 syndrome).
-Overall this condition is called long COVID19.
-It concerns people infected with the coronavirus, diseased but no longer transmitting the disease.
-They develop this condition due to residual inflammation and possible damage to various organs.
-This condition is observed in at least 30% of people who develop symptoms when infected with the virus, while age and underlying diseases have no role in who will show persisting symptoms, as it is observed at all ages. In fact it seems that more than half of people with long-COVID19 are under 45 years of age.
-It appears that people who needed hospitalization during COVID19 are more likely to experience this condition and their symptoms are more pronounced.
-Studies have shown that people with long-COVID19 are slow to return to their daily lives and work, while more than 50% of people with long-COVID19 needed care up to 3 months after the disease.
The most common symptoms observed in this condition are
·easy or continuous fatigue,
·muscle pains (brains),
·frequent headaches,
·difficulty breathing which may be a few minutes or longer,
·taste, smell,
·dizziness – drop of pressure especially in an upright position,
·tachycardia, chest weight,
·memory disorders – difficulty concentrating,
·sleep disorders (insomnia, nightmares),
Chronic anxiety, panic attacks.
"It is therefore evident that the symptoms of long-term COVID19 disease are very similar to the symptoms of the infection itself."
'Long-COVID19 clinics' have already started to be set up
"In several countries abroad, especially those most affected, long-COVID19 clinics have been set up to serve people in need of specialized approach and care. In Cyprus, although there is no organized system for recording patients with long-COVID19, several centers have the ability to assess and monitor patients with long-COVID19, as well as provide them with the care they need.
The recent outbreak of COVID19 disease in Cyprus signals the need for the medical world to be constantly informed of the possibility of several people with persisting symptoms after COVID19 to be identified in a timely manner and receive appropriate care."
When numbers are translated into people
The translation of the percentages into real numbers, changes the picture and the translation of the numbers into people, makes an even bigger difference, while confirming the predictions of the specialists for an even greater number of patients in hospitals in Cyprus in the next two weeks. Moreover, the Calculations of the Agency for State Health Services in recent weeks are unfortunately confirmed by reality.
Based on the data:
- 70% of new cases show symptoms of
- of these 5% will need hospitalization
- 5%-10% of nurses are admitted to ICU.
Detailed and as shown by the calculations (always given the fact that people are not numbers and in health matters are often recorded exclusions from predictions, whether they are optimistic or extreme)
- Of the 751 cases last Monday (i.e. 751 people), 526 have symptoms. Of these, 26 will probably need hospitalization in the next 7-10 days with 1 of them at best and 3 based on recorded rates having a chance of entering the ICU
- Of Tuesday's 907 cases, 635 people have symptoms. Of those, 25 will need hospitalization. One to two of them will need hospitalization in the ICU.
- Of Wednesday's 704 cases, 493 people have symptoms. Of these, 24 will need hospitalization, one will need hospitalization in ICU.
