Filenews 13 December 2020
The European Union and the United Kingdom are now taking a decision on the fate of their thorny post-Brexit negotiations.
In fact, they are either expected to see a failure with serious consequences or to judge that an agreement is still possible, just twenty days before the final rupture.
The scenarios for Brexit
No scenario can be ruled out, including the unexpected announcement of a compromise, as these tense talks, which included bluffs and deadlines that were not met, have been rich in fluctuations since they began in March. But the trend last Saturday night seemed negative. "In the current situation, the EU offer remains unacceptable," said a British government source while talks were continuing in Brussels and could continue today.
"Any agreement must be fair and respect the fundamental position that the UK will be a sovereign nation within three weeks," the source added. In a sign of heightened tension, the British defence secretary announced on the eve of this new deadline that Royal Navy vessels are ready to protect national fishing zones, where tensions could arise if no agreement is reached.
The decision whether or not to resume talks will be taken by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after a telephone conversation today, in light of the latest negotiations, which may continue into the day.
Tonight's Brexit debate
The two leaders have been trying for days to unblock the politically-level talks, which are at an impasse. During a dinner in Brussels on Wednesday evening, all they could see again was that their seats were 'far apart'.
But they gave themselves another chance: an extra three days of negotiations to find an agreement, before a "final decision" on Sunday.
They have since competed in pessimism, with Johnson saying a failure is "very, very likely" and von der Leyen deeming hopes for a deal "slim."
The European Commission on Thursday released urgent measures to continue, in the event of a 'no deal', air traffic between the UK and the EU for six months, as well as to reciprocal access to fishing waters for one year.
These measures were requested by the Member States, which have been trying for months to remain united behind their negotiator, Michel Barnier.
According to a senior European official, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel even refused last Monday to speak separately with Boris Johnson.
Despite increasingly intensive talks, the compromise seems impossible between the British, who want to regain full commercial freedom, and the Europeans, who want to protect their huge market.
The only certainty is that the UK, which officially left the EU on 31 January, will permanently leave the single market and customs union on 31 December.
"British sovereignty"
Without a trade agreement, its exchanges with the EU will only take place under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, which are synonymous with customs duties and quotas, at the risk of a new shock to economies that have already become vulnerable to the crown.
Discussions stumble on three issues: european fishermen's access to British waters, how to settle disputes under the future agreement and, above all, the conditions that Europeans require to avoid unfair competition.
The EU is ready to offer London access without customs duties or quotas to its huge market. In this case, however, it wants to ensure that the United Kingdom does not engage in dumping by setting aside environmental, social or budgetary standards or state aid rules. If that happens, it wants to be able to quickly proceed with countermeasures, such as customs duties, without waiting for the dispute to be judged in a classic arbitration procedure in order to protect its businesses. London is firmly opposed to this. "Defending the single market is a red line for the EU," stressed a European source. "What we have proposed in the United Kingdom respects British sovereignty. It may be the basis of an agreement."
Source: iefimerida.gr - https://www.iefimerida.gr/kosmos/brexit-fon-nter-laien-kai-tzonson-syzitoyn
