The global market seems to be moving towards an oversupply of oil again, as high prices limit demand and change the estimates for the balance of supply and consumption. According to analyses by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, shortage concerns are receding, giving way to concerns about a potential surplus, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
OilPrice.com JPMorgan estimates that the global market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, which widened to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
This level is close to last year's average of 1.3 million. barrels per day, according to a report by the investment bank published this week.
For its part, Goldman Sachs presents a diversified assessment, arguing that the oil market was in equilibrium in both September and October.
Export recovery despite attacks on the Strait of Hormuz
The two investment banks' estimates come amid reports of a recovery in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, despite an escalation of Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Five such incidents have been recorded since Sunday alone, which maintains concern about the safety of navigation and the stability of energy supply.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs points out that no reduction in global oil inventories has been recorded in the last two months, following successive reductions in previous months, which were linked to efforts to contain fuel prices.
The risk premium remains high
Despite forecasts of increased supply, the price picture does not yet fully confirm the scenario of the market returning to surplus, according to the OilPrice.com.
Futures prices are still significantly higher than the levels at the beginning of the year, as is the case with natural oil prices.
At the same time, the risk premium associated with the war remains high, although it has narrowed slightly after the Democrats' broad electoral victory in the United States midterm elections.
This development suggests that geopolitical risks continue to weigh on valuations, despite declining demand.
Oil flows at 86% of pre-war levels
The movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of recovery, according to data from the Vortexa company.
In particular, daily flows are estimated at 14 million barrels, including condensates, which corresponds to 86 percent of pre-war levels.
However, Vortexa analyst George Morris pointed out that October's data reflected a slight decline in maritime exports from the Middle East, compared to recent highs recorded after the conflict began.
As he explained, this development is linked to the increase in risks in the Strait of Hormuz, which still affect the transport of oil from the region.
