WHAT DOES THE REVERSAL OF THE TURKISH-LIBYAN MEMORANDUM MEAN FOR CYPRUS AND GREECE - ANALYSES BY GIORGOS KENTAS AND PAMBOS CHRYSOSTOMOU - Filenews 25/10 by Ernest Moussas
Cyprus and Greece have been on diplomatic alert for a few days now, following the decision of the House of Representatives in Libya to approve the Turkish-Libyan maritime delimitation memorandum of 2019. This is an important differentiation of the data to date, since for 7 years the parliament of eastern Libya has been against this agreement.
The news caused a lot of reactions in Cyprus and Greece, but also at the level of the European Union. The 27 member states in a unanimous statement declared the memorandum invalid, acknowledging that it violates the sovereign rights of third states. The President of the Commission and the President of the European Council did the same in a joint statement. In addition, the response from Egypt is considered important, which underlined that the ratification by the Libyan Parliament has no legal force. Israel's stance was also condemning.
What does the agreement provide?
The Turkish-Libyan memorandum was signed on November 27, 2019 between Turkey and the then internationally recognized Government of National Accord of Libya, based in Tripoli. With the agreement, the two countries defined a line delimiting maritime zones between them. The main point of contention is that it bypasses the influence of Greek islands, mainly Crete, Rhodes and Karpathos, in the delimitation of the continental shelf and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The Greek side argues that these islands have rights in maritime zones, in accordance with the International Law of the Sea, and that Turkey and Libya cannot agree on a delimitation that ignores Greek sovereign rights. On the contrary, Ankara argues that the delimitation must take into account the geographical layout and length of the mainland coasts, considering that the Greek islands cannot cut off Turkey's maritime claims.
The turn of eastern Libya
In Libya there have been two governments for many years. One government is based in Tripoli, western Libya, and is recognized by the UN and most of the world's states as the country's legitimate government. The other government is based in Benghazi in eastern Libya. The Libyan parliament, the House of Representatives, which was voted in 2014, is also based there. Since then, there have been no elections due to political instability.
The most important political aspect of the recent development is that the approval came from the Libyan House of Representatives, which is linked to the political forces that support Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
When the memorandum was signed in 2019, eastern Libya had rejected the agreement, considering that the Tripoli government did not have the necessary authorization to bind the country. In 2020, the same parliament had taken decisions against the agreements with Turkey.
Greece's position
The Greek Foreign Ministry rejected the decision of the Libyan Parliament, saying that it does not change the legal status of the agreement, which Athens considers illegal and invalid.
According to the official Greek position, Turkey and Libya do not have objects or adjacent coasts that justify the specific delimitation of maritime zones. Athens also argues that the memorandum ignores the maritime rights of Greek islands, including Crete.
The Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it has informed the country's partners and allies and that it will take appropriate actions to protect its sovereign rights. On October 21, Greece's permanent representative to the UN, Aglaia Balta, informed the Security Council about the agreement.
Ankara's response
Turkey on Thursday rejected the reactions of Greece, the European Union and other sides. Turkey's Defense Ministry said the legal validity of the agreement cannot be challenged through "unilateral assessments of third parties," insisting that the delimitation of maritime zones is a sovereign right of the states concerned.
The Turkish ministry welcomed the approval of the memorandum by the Libyan House of Representatives on October 20, calling it a confirmation of the validity of the agreement and a step towards strengthening the strategic cooperation between Ankara and Tripoli. "The decision confirms the validity of the memorandum, which was signed on the basis of international law and the principles of equity," the ministry said. At the same time, he reiterated Ankara's determination to defend what it considers its rights and interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Direct accusations against Turkey by Israel
Israel and Egypt have expressed their strong opposition to the approval of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum by the Libyan House of Representatives, rejecting the maritime delimitation agreement signed between Ankara and Tripoli in 2019.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry condemned the decision of the Libyan parliament on October 21, stressing that the agreement violates the sovereign rights of Israel's close allies in the region.
At the same time, he directly accused Turkey of destabilizing actions, stating that "unfortunately, once again we see Turkey working to destabilize the Eastern Mediterranean."
Accordingly, the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the ratification of the memorandum does not produce any legal consequences for Egypt, reiterating that it considers the agreement invalid and contrary to the International Law of the Sea.
Cairo argued that the memorandum violates its sovereign rights in the Exclusive Economic Zone and its continental shelf. He also clarified that he rejects any action based on the agreement and contrary to the country's stated maritime boundaries, retaining the right to protect its interests under international law.
It has existed since 2019 but is ignored in practice
Expert analysts who spoke to "F tis Kyriakis" explained that the latest development with the Turkish-Libyan memorandum does not directly affect the Republic of Cyprus. However, it affects it indirectly as well as other third states, since Turkey is assisted in promoting its interests in the region. "Whether it does it against Cyprus or against the Greek islands, the result and the attitude of the Republic of Cyprus are the same," they pointed out.
What is important, however, in their opinion, is the fact that this memorandum between Turkey and Libya has been there since 2019. For 7 years, they added, Ankara has been invoking it despite the fact that there was no possibility to pass it through the Libyan House of Representatives. In essence, according to analysts, what changes is that there will be a sheet of internal legality. As far as the foreign affairs are concerned, nothing changes and this was shown in practice by the reactions of both the European Union and neighbouring states such as Israel and Egypt in particular.
"It is still illegal in international law," they underlined, explaining that it violates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This is the basic international legal framework that defines the rights and obligations of states in the seas and oceans. This is a very important convention for Cyprus and Greece, since it includes rules on the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the continental shelf, territorial waters and the rights of the islands. Turkey has not signed the convention, while Libya has signed it but has not ratified it. The same analysts explained in simple terms that anyone who does not serve their interests UNCLOS chooses not to sign it.
In addition, analysts stressed that the statements from Israel, Egypt and European states are of particular importance. But what really counts is the fact that this memorandum exists and has been invoked by Turkey and Libya since 2019, however, both Greece and Egypt have taken actions on the ground, ignoring its existence and without creating a problem.
Therefore, both of these countries are not just saying that the Turkish-Libyan memorandum is illegal, but in practice they are ignoring it. "Beyond that," they concluded, "the development demonstrates the degree of influence of Turkey in Libya. In a game of chess, whatever pawn anyone can use, he uses."
Giorgos Kentas: The memorandum and the provocation of Turkish lawlessness
"The approval of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum by the Libyan Parliament is another manifestation of Ankara's strategy to impose its own rules in the Eastern Mediterranean. This development does not change the legal status of maritime zones, but it does strengthen Turkey's political effort to create a fait accompli and redefine the terms of regional cooperation.
The problem is not limited to this memorandum. Turkey is pursuing a broader strategy of lawlessness, challenging fundamental norms of International Law and attempting to shape a regional order adapted to its own geopolitical aspirations. Instead of accepting the rules of coexistence, good neighborliness and cooperation, it seeks to make its unilateral claims the subject of negotiation.
This practice creates constant uncertainty in the Eastern Mediterranean. It affects the delimitation of maritime zones, undermines energy security and hinders the implementation of regional infrastructure. The Greece-Cyprus electrical interconnection is a typical example of a project of European strategic importance that is facing Turkish claims.
For Greece and Cyprus, the challenge is primarily strategic. It is not enough to invoke International Law, no matter how necessary it may be. Political confidence, determination and active diplomacy are required, with the aim of forming correlations that will limit Ankara's ability to unilaterally impose its terms.
Greece must strengthen its cooperation with the European Union, especially with member states that have substantial interests in the region, but also with Cyprus, Egypt, Israel and the United States. These partnerships must acquire a specific political, energy and strategic content.
The Eastern Mediterranean cannot be organized on the basis of unilateral claims and selective application of rules. Stability presupposes respect for sovereignty, International Law and equal cooperation. The most effective response to the Turkish strategy is not to wait for the next challenge, but to systematically build a regional order of cooperation, in which Greece and Cyprus will have an active and substantial role."
Pambos Chrysostomou: Geopolitical consequences of the ratification of the memorandum
The ratification of the 2019 Turkish-Libyan Memorandum by the House of Representatives of Eastern Libya is an important geopolitical development for the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, the revocation of the 2020 decision to sever relations with Turkey marks the rapprochement between Benghazi and Ankara and the change in the attitude of the Haftar camp.
This change is linked to Turkey's strategy to develop political, economic and military relations with both Western and Eastern Libya. Changes in the leadership of the Libyan parliament and the strengthening of the influence of the Haftar family play a decisive role, which may limit the traditional influence of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
The Memorandum is disputed by Greece, as it does not sufficiently take into account the influence of Greek islands, such as Crete, Rhodes, Karpathos and Kastellorizo, when delimiting maritime zones. In addition, it raises issues related to the rights of third states and the overlapping of maritime areas linked to the Greece-Egypt EEZ delimitation agreement. Ratification by the Libyan Parliament, however, does not automatically imply international legal recognition of the Memorandum.
The developments are also affecting the region's energy plans, particularly the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project, which concerns the electrical interconnection of Greece and Cyprus, with the prospect of connecting to Israel. Turkey could use the Memorandum as a means of diplomatic pressure, causing delays or tensions around energy projects.
To deal with the new data, Greece and Cyprus are called upon to strengthen diplomatic cooperation with the European Union, the US, France, Egypt and Israel, to accelerate energy projects and to develop more stable relations with the two sides of Libya.
In conclusion, the ratification does not by itself change the legal force of the Memorandum, but strengthens Turkey's geopolitical influence. Effectively addressing the challenge requires a combination of diplomacy, deterrence, regional alliances and energy cooperation.
