By Melik Kaylan
The chaos in the international order is intensifying rapidly as the US moves away from its traditional role: to ensure continuity and cohesion among its allies and to contain its adversaries. Nowhere is this shift more evident than in the Middle East, where the confrontation with Iran has caused turbulence in strategic alliances and sustained pressures on oil prices.
It was one thing to denounce America as the "gendarme of the world" and another to be called upon now to deal with the consequences of the growing economic and strategic chaos. Disruption, as it turns out, is not always a virtue.
Let's look at the big picture.
Saudi Arabia, like other American allies in the Gulf, has suffered severe damage to its infrastructure from attacks by Iranian-backed organizations. The Strait of Hormuz, as well as alternative routes to the Red Sea for Saudi oil exports, are now under serious threat.
At the same time, NATO is constantly being challenged across Europe, with Russian drones and sabotage operations against it. Ukraine, for now, is effectively exposed to Russian missile strikes and jet-powered drones. Even international diplomatic missions have been targeted — a phenomenon until recently almost unknown in the Western world.
At the same time, the very concept of "West" seems less and less coherent as relations between Canada and the US deteriorate and pro-Russian populist parties strengthen in Europe.
Just two years ago, the picture was noticeably different.
Russia had lost Syria and could not protect its ally, Iran. Ukraine was preparing to launch massive drone strikes against Russian troops, oil facilities and the Russian Navy. Israel had just neutralized the leadership of the Iranian regime. Hezbollah in Lebanon was in a state of disarray after the Israeli operation with the booby-trapped communication devices.
The Strait of Hormuz remained as open as it had always been for international oil transports. Russia was so preoccupied with the war in Ukraine that it was now finding it difficult to intervene on other foreign fronts. And China has been busy warning Vladimir Putin not to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The picture has now changed dramatically
Russia and China helped Iran, without suffering substantial consequences, to attack US bases and aircraft in the Gulf, as well as facilities of the Gulf states themselves.
The leaders of the three countries appeared together at the recent BRICS summit, calling for "de-escalation" from the US. In practice, the message was more like a warning: "You have a solid front in front of you. You have seen what we can do. Now back off."
The FBI, in fact, only recently announced the existence of murderers and saboteurs financed by Moscow and operating on American soil. This alliance and the networks connected to it, in contrast to those of the West, appear coordinated and aggressive. They are in a position of initiative.
Western alliances, by contrast, are increasingly showing signs of disorganization.
Let's examine why.
Turkey and Israel are now in a state of open confrontation. In the absence of clear American leadership, Washington's allies begin to form their own "small alliances."
Israel has strengthened its cooperation with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus vis-à-vis Turkey. At the same time, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have concluded the so-called "Mecca Pact" for mutual defense, an agreement that so far seems to have limited practical value — except, perhaps, the possibility of transferring nuclear know-how from Pakistan to Saudi Arabia.
No one, however, has actually helped Saudi Arabia deal with attacks by the Houthis, whom Iran supports. Pakistan, for its part, has refused to get involved in countering the attacks that, according to Riyadh, are backed by Tehran and target Saudi infrastructure.
Russian pressure on Europe
In Europe, the Russian threat is taking on an increasingly concrete form.
Recently, a Russian warship reportedly fired flares at a Danish helicopter, while Russian drones repeatedly violate airspace in the Baltic region and more broadly in Europe. In Germany, at the same time, explosive devices were found allegedly linked to sabotage plans at Leipzig airport facilities.
And the incessant Russian bombardment of civilians and critical civilian infrastructure in Ukraine does not seem to have an end.
It is often argued that bombing alone does not win wars without the deployment of ground forces. This, however, overlooks the experience of the second Chechen war, when the capital Grozny was razed to the ground by Russian forces, helping to suppress the uprising.
Ukraine could face a similar fate over time if it does not secure a replacement for the Patriot missiles that have already been mostly used in the war with Iran.
Wars of attrition seem to be becoming the norm.
Ukraine is hitting Russian military forces and facilities deep in Russian territory, including energy and economic infrastructure, while Moscow is responding by making it increasingly difficult for Ukrainian society to function smoothly.
The question that remains is which of the two systems will bend first under the weight of chaos, a protracted war and mutual destruction.
The pressure on NATO and Europe to strengthen Ukraine is causing increasingly intense Russian provocations and sabotage operations in Europe. The possibility that the situation could develop into a wider conflict – most likely in the Baltic region – can no longer be ignored.
This threat is helping to strengthen pro-Russian or Eurosceptic populist parties in Europe, from Marine Le Pen in France to the AfD in Germany, which argue that "this is not our war".
At the same time, they are politically exploiting the issue of migration, with Russian disinformation reinforcing, according to Western governments and security services, relevant narratives. Moderate parties, for their part, find it difficult to manage the issue effectively.
And let's not forget one crucial element: the opponents of the West do not have to worry to the same extent about changes in public opinion in their own societies.
The US-Iran confrontation
The US-Iran conflict is evolving into a similar high-stakes game.
Iran will continue to try to influence shipping and force the US to react. Political pressure on Washington is increasing as congressional elections approach.
Will Washington back down, at the cost of a major political and strategic defeat, or will it opt for one last large-scale air operation as a last resort to bend the Tehran regime?
In any case, the field of information is expected to be overwhelmed by a wave of "post-truth", misinformation and questionable claims, while American society risks becoming further polarized — as is already happening in parts of Europe and the United Kingdom.
The message to the rest of the world
The consequences of the weakening of the Western alliance, as a result of reduced American involvement, are not limited to the above fronts.
Other countries and regions are getting the message.
Perhaps the only positive element is the de-escalation of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which creates conditions for the opening of a new trade route — the so-called "Middle Corridor" — that will connect Central Asia with international markets, bypassing Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.
However, in an environment where Western adversaries are strengthening their position, this strategic realignment effort may remain stagnant, fearing Russian aggression and instability of the American strategic focus.
At the end of September, a major investment conference in Baku is expected to offer indications of the direction that developments may take.
The world is at a critical crossroads.
Steps in one direction or the other could trigger a chain reaction — to the benefit of either the West or its adversaries.
Forbes
