UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ departure from Cyprus has immediately shifted public attention back to the backstage manoeuvring of the upcoming presidential elections. While Guterres’ visit dominated the public agenda early in the week, it remains unclear how heavily the Cyprus problem will influence public life in the near future. However, the next steps in the peace process will undoubtedly impact a political landscape where pre-election positioning has already begun.
Even before Guterres left the island, online commentary flared over a widely circulated photograph showing Averof Neofytou shaking hands with AKEL General Secretary Stefanos Stefanou at a bicommunal rally backing a Cyprus solution. Simultaneously, DISY leadership at Pindarou Street elevated the issue of identification cards while analysing the results of a major presidential election poll.
Filenews has obtained additional data from this poll, which, alongside a second private survey conducted by another prominent firm, outlines a highly competitive political landscape.
Key Poll Takeaways and First-Round Dynamics
The findings from both surveys point to several main trends shifting the political landscape:
Polling as a tactical tool:
-Surveys are set to serve as core instruments during this pre-election period, influencing not only the presidential race but also internal party processes.
-Demetriou leads within DISY: Annita Demetriou currently represents the strongest potential candidacy from the right-wing DISY party.
-Christodoulides vs. Demetriou deadlock: A first-round matchup between Nikos Christodoulides and Annita Demetriou predicts a neck-and-neck battle. In the survey presented at DISY headquarters, the DISY president held a slim lead, while the second private poll showed reversed data, confirming a dead heat in both scenarios.
-Neofytou’s improved starting position: Averof Neofytou is starting from a much stronger position compared to 2023. Given that the former DISY leader began the previous presidential race with single-digit polling before reaching over 26 per cent, current conditions appear more favourable for him.
-Christodoulides retains cross-party strength: Incumbent President Nikos Christodoulides remains a powerful contender despite facing daily opposition from both AKEL and DISY. Although the three parties that backed him in 2023 suffered losses in the parliamentary elections, Christodoulides still polls well above 20 per cent. He retains 25 per cent to 30 per cent of DISY voters and continues to lead his rivals in qualitative performance metrics.
-AKEL holds the second-round key: While Andreas Mavroyiannis and AKEL were not the primary focus of these specific polls, the data shows the former negotiator remains a potent choice for the left-wing party. If the right-wing vote splinters, AKEL could reclaim power. In second-round scenarios, Mavroyiannis leads both Christodoulides and Demetriou by a single percentage point. AKEL’s Stefanos Stefanou shows a lower probability of winning a second-round runoff, but data indicates that whomever AKEL backs is virtually assured a spot on the second Sunday, effectively ruling out a Christodoulides-Demetriou or Christodoulides-Neofytou runoff.
-Christodoulides Leads on Suitability Metric
A crucial element from the poll presented at DISY headquarters was an unprompted question asking citizens to name the person they consider most suitable to be the next President of the Republic.
Nikos Christodoulides placed first with 19 per cent, followed by Andreas Mavroyiannis at 16 per cent, Annita Demetriou at 12 per cent, and Averof Neofytou at 9 per cent. Other figures who received smaller percentages included Giorgos Pamboridis, Constantinos Yiorkadjis, Odysseas Michaelides, Christos Christou, Irene Charalambidou, and Christos Stylianides.
-Demetriou leads within DISY: Annita Demetriou currently represents the strongest potential candidacy from the right-wing DISY party.
-Christodoulides vs. Demetriou deadlock: A first-round matchup between Nikos Christodoulides and Annita Demetriou predicts a neck-and-neck battle. In the survey presented at DISY headquarters, the DISY president held a slim lead, while the second private poll showed reversed data, confirming a dead heat in both scenarios.
-Neofytou’s improved starting position: Averof Neofytou is starting from a much stronger position compared to 2023. Given that the former DISY leader began the previous presidential race with single-digit polling before reaching over 26 per cent, current conditions appear more favourable for him.
-Christodoulides retains cross-party strength: Incumbent President Nikos Christodoulides remains a powerful contender despite facing daily opposition from both AKEL and DISY. Although the three parties that backed him in 2023 suffered losses in the parliamentary elections, Christodoulides still polls well above 20 per cent. He retains 25 per cent to 30 per cent of DISY voters and continues to lead his rivals in qualitative performance metrics.
-AKEL holds the second-round key: While Andreas Mavroyiannis and AKEL were not the primary focus of these specific polls, the data shows the former negotiator remains a potent choice for the left-wing party. If the right-wing vote splinters, AKEL could reclaim power. In second-round scenarios, Mavroyiannis leads both Christodoulides and Demetriou by a single percentage point. AKEL’s Stefanos Stefanou shows a lower probability of winning a second-round runoff, but data indicates that whomever AKEL backs is virtually assured a spot on the second Sunday, effectively ruling out a Christodoulides-Demetriou or Christodoulides-Neofytou runoff.
-Christodoulides Leads on Suitability Metric
A crucial element from the poll presented at DISY headquarters was an unprompted question asking citizens to name the person they consider most suitable to be the next President of the Republic.
Nikos Christodoulides placed first with 19 per cent, followed by Andreas Mavroyiannis at 16 per cent, Annita Demetriou at 12 per cent, and Averof Neofytou at 9 per cent. Other figures who received smaller percentages included Giorgos Pamboridis, Constantinos Yiorkadjis, Odysseas Michaelides, Christos Christou, Irene Charalambidou, and Christos Stylianides.
DISY’s Internal Rift and the Cyprus Problem Card
The data reveals a clear island-wide lead for Annita Demetriou over potential internal party rivals. However, because this was a national poll, a second survey is currently running exclusively among DISY party members to gauge internal sentiment.
Leaked data from prior internal tracking suggests Demetriou’s lead narrows among core members, as Averof Neofytou maintains deep roots within the party machinery he led for a decade. Neofytou is currently positioning his candidacy toward a broader, cross-party audience to argue he can draw votes from outside traditional DISY boundaries, while Giorgos Pamboridis currently trails both Demetriou and Neofytou among party insiders.
The internal friction became apparent when President Christodoulides convened the National Council to brief leaders on Guterres’ arrival, prompting Demetriou to call DISY’s Cyprus Group into session. While veteran figures like Ioannis Kasoulides, Panayiotis Demetriou, and Stefi Drakou attended, Averof Neofytou was pointedly excluded, a move that drew widespread political comment.
The Cyprus problem remains Neofytou’s primary political platform. His joint appearance with AKEL’s Stefanou at the bicommunal rally was a calculated signal that he is a pro-solution candidate capable of appealing to a wider electorate. Following the leak of the DISY poll, Neofytou posted a sharp public critique aimed directly at party leadership on Thursday. He expressed concern over the outcome of the Guterres visit before targeting “old-party games” initiated by leadership to undermine his prospects, drawing parallels to how Christodoulides used polling tactics against him in 2023.
Meanwhile, DISY leadership remains focused on Nikos Christodoulides as their primary first-round opponent. Even when facing Demetriou, Christodoulides successfully retains roughly 31 per cent of the DISY voters who cast ballots in the last legislative elections, translating to about 9 per cent of the total electorate. This cross-over support remains high despite the wear of governance. Conversely, Constantinos Yiorkadjis pooled the lowest numbers when tested as a potential joint DISY-DIKO candidate.
ELAM Weighs Its First-Round Strategy
Debate is also growing over whether ELAM will field its own candidate on the first Sunday. DISY’s internal polling indicates that whether ELAM leader Christos Christou runs or not, the core balance between Demetriou and Christodoulides shifts very little.
With Christou in the race, the ELAM leader registers 10 per cent, Demetriou takes 24 per cent, and Christodoulides secures 22 per cent. Without Christou, both leading candidates see a bump, with Christodoulides benefiting slightly more to land at 26 per cent against Demetriou’s 27 per cent.
ELAM has not officially opened its presidential discussions. One faction within the party argues against running a candidate, fearing that strategic voting patterns could suppress their final percentage below the party’s actual strength. Another faction insists that a party polling in the double digits cannot sit out a presidential election, arguing they must use the platform to project their core policies on the Cyprus problem and migration.
