A lot of publicity has been given in the last 24 hours to international media for meetings at the White House, under President Trump, to assess the possibility of the US hitting Iran's energy facilities on the island of Harg or even to carry out an operation to seize it.
The island of Harg, in the Persian Gulf (25 kilometers from the Iranian coast), is Iran's main oil hub, as almost 95% of Iranian oil exports pass through it. What makes the Harg indispensable to Iran is the great depth of its ports, which allows super-tankers to approach for oil loads. This possibility does not exist in other ports in Iran.
If Iran loses control of Harg or if the facilities on the island are knocked out, the country will suffer a very serious economic blow.
At the same time, global oil trade will also be severely affected, not so much by the loss of Iranian exports (which are mainly directed to China, Japan and India) but by a new escalation of hostilities in the Straits, by certain retaliation by Iranian forces, which would dramatically limit the transits of tankers to and from the Gulf countries.
* Yesterday's Wall Street Journal report said that President Trump and his advisers have been considering various escalation options against Iran in recent days, including the possibility of deploying ground forces to capture Harg Island. The same publication points out that no final decision was made.
* Reuters published interviews with military and analysts, who argue that a capture of Harg and especially its capture in American hands would be extremely dangerous and difficult.
* Axios also reported that US administration officials were discussing the possibility of capturing or blockading Harg as a means of exerting economic pressure on Iran.
Iranian threats
Reports of a possible US strike on Harg or even the occupation of the island provoked a reaction from Iran. He warned through the spokesman of the Central Headquarters of the Iranian armed forces, Ibrahim Zolfagari, that in such a case he would strike oil facilities in Gulf countries. "Our response will not simply be proportional. She will be superior," he said, according to Iranian state television.
Minimum crossings
Regardless of what the U.S. ultimately does about the Harg, the recent new conflagration has led to a severe restriction on the passage of ships to and from the Strait of Hormuz. The traffic of super-tankers is rare, while the smaller ships that crossed the straits in the last 2-3 days did not exceed 10-12 per day.
As expected, many shipping companies avoid the passage of their ships or keep them at a distance, outside the Persian Gulf, in anticipation of de-escalation.
Brent oil had a slight increase yesterday, reaching $85.83 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.18% to $80.54 per barrel.
