The reason for this intervention was a report by the Auditor General on energy issues and an excellent article by the expert Mr. C. Ellinas, on a Long-Term Strategic Energy Plan.
An issue on which I have written a few articles in the last 12 years, highlighting the problems that arise due to the absence of an Integrated Long-Term Energy Plan, covering all sectors and not fragmentarily one aspect of the energy sector.
Mr. Ellinas writes at the end of Part II of his long article: "The future of Cyprus' energy system will not be determined by a single project. It will be determined by whether the country can develop and implement a long-term plan that aligns energy security, affordability, decarbonization, water security and economic growth within a single strategic vision."
Obviously I wouldn't change a single word in this paragraph. However, I will limit my intervention only to the issue of energy security and more specifically to the issue of Production Adequacy to meet electricity demand in order to provide continuous and uninterrupted electricity to consumers.
A key issue in long-term strategic planning is ensuring that there is sufficient installed capacity.
At the same time, within the framework of our obligations, as an EU Member State, to reduce carbon emissions, we should continue to increase the penetration of RES in the electricity production system, in order to achieve the long-term goals of 2040 and beyond.
Also, an important element for diversifying the production mix, reducing costs and carbon emissions, is the urgent import of natural gas, to replace the very expensive diesel used by the large units of Vasilikos.
Today, the installed capacity of conventional production amounts to 1478 Megawatts, and in some cases, depending on the maintenance program of the Units or due to a breakdown, the coverage of demand is marginal.
The EAC's sixth Unit and the private PEC producer's Unit remain inactive because they can only operate on natural gas.
Looking at what will happen after three years, I think that the situation on the issue of Production Adequacy is NIGHTMARISH.
The withdrawal, after 2029, of the six steam power units of Dhekelia with a total capacity of 360 Megawatts and the three steam power units of Vasilikos with a capacity of 390 Megawatts, turns the scenario into a nightmarish one. Installed conventional power of 728 megawatts remains available!
Those in charge should not sleep at night.
I understand that some gas turbines will enter Dhekelia, but of small power, a total of around 100 Megawatts, which will run on the very expensive diesel.
Also, some electricity storage units will be installed, which will help reduce RES cuts and partially meet demand.
However, even if EAC Unit 6 in Vassiliko with a capacity of 160 megawatts, as well as the private unit, with a capacity of 260 megawatts, are converted to operate with diesel, there is still an issue of Production Adequacy.
At the same time, there is also a big issue of flexibility of the system to meet demand, due to the need for a rapid increase in the production of conventional units in the afternoon hours, when PV production is rapidly reduced, to be reduced to zero shortly after seven. A flexibility that today is offered mainly by Dhekelia and the gas turbines of Moni.
The introduction of natural gas by 2030 in order for the Units to operate at a lower cost is an illusory dream based on today's data.
Unfortunately, our State did not take care to bring cheap natural gas from our own deposits with a pipeline after so many years that they have been identified. I also don't think there is even one technocrat who considers the electrical interconnection feasible, for which there are no decisions yet, until 2030.
With the above in mind, I believe that the scenario in electricity production for after 2029 is NIGHTMARISH for both Security of Supply and electricity costs. SOS!
It is imperative that there is rapid state intervention and planning to ensure the continuous and uninterrupted supply of electricity to consumers after 2029. In this action, I believe that the State will need the semi-state energy organization to function as an arm of the State.
* Former President of CERA
