The U.S. war with Iran has shown the Tehran regime that it can close the Strait of Hormuz and work — it has acquired a new tool it did not have before the conflict, and there is nothing stopping it from using it in the future, according to information from US intelligence estimates.
Iran has begun planning to broaden its strategy to block global shipping should negotiations with the US fail, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Bab-el-Madeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, with the help of Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to CNN, who cites three anonymous sources with knowledge of the information held by the secret services.
Despite Trump's claims that the US has decimated the Iranian military, Iran still has significant stockpiles of weapons, among them: underwater mines, as well as vessels that it can use to control the Strait and which ships are attempting to pass through this sea route.
Another effective pressure strategy that Iran learned during the war is to attack neighbouring Gulf states such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be one of the conditions that Iran must fulfil under the agreement with the US to end the war, although the details of the agreement — such as the manner and timing of the reopening of Hormuz - have not yet been made public.
Trump said the Strait would be fully reopened by Friday, but some shipping company chiefs have expressed reservations about resuming shipping operations without specific security guarantees, while Iran has not fully demined the Strait.
Iran has left open the possibility of continuing to impose "tolls" on ships for their passage through Hormuz. Iran imposed transit fees on ships when it closed the Strait. Trump says the passage through Hormuz will be free, while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai said on Monday that Iran could continue to impose fees "in exchange for the services it provides".
An unnamed senior U.S. official told CNN that the U.S. will not lift economic sanctions or lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports unless Iran reopens the Strait and fulfils the other terms of the U.S. deal. Extending the blockade of the Strait could anger China and other Gulf countries, on which the Iranian economy depends, another anonymous source told CNN.
"We have now handed over to Iran de facto control of the Strait — a weapon more powerful than a nuclear weapon," one of the sources told CNN.
The United States and Iran signed an agreement to end the conflict electronically on Sunday and are expected to formally sign it on Friday in Geneva. Few details about its contents have been released, but Iran could secure several benefits it did not have before the war — and it is unclear whether key U.S. goals, such as regime change and ending Iran's nuclear program, will be achieved.
Forbes
