By Jill Goldenziel
Despite the U.S. blockade and weeks of negotiations, Iran still claims sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Russia and China are watching with great interest. Before the US blockade began, Iran provided Russian and Chinese ships with privileged access through the Strait, while at the same time charging 2 million euros. dollars as "tolls" on some ships and completely excluded the passage of others. To protect their interests, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution in April to reopen the Strait. But the veto was not just about Hormuz: Moscow and Beijing have a bigger prize in mind 5,000 miles to the north. Ceding sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran would open the door for Russia to forcibly impose its sovereignty over the most important sea route you may have never heard of: the Northern Sea Route. Allowing Russia to control the Northern Sea Route would threaten U.S. national security interests, global trade, and freedom of navigation around the world.
The Northern Sea Route runs through the Arctic, connecting the Bering Strait in the east with the Barents Sea in the west. It is impassable for most of the year, but the melting ice makes it increasingly easy to navigate and transport goods from Asia to European markets. Carriers see the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to the dangerous route through the Suez Canal. The route is about 5,600 kilometers shorter and can save 10 to 15 days. The Northern Sea Route is shallower than the Suez Canal, which means that not all large cargo ships can use it. However, it could "welcome" the undersea cables that carry much of modern digital commerce. These cables can be laid seasonally and by smaller vessels, making the Northern Sea Route very important for economic growth.
How Russia controls access to the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic
Russia is asserting its control over the Northern Sea Route using "legal polemics": the deliberate abuse of the law to achieve strategic or military gains. Moscow is applying an illegal interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to claim much of the Northern Sea Route as its sovereign waters. Russia has enshrined these claims in its domestic law, setting the legal framework to consider any unauthorized passage of foreign ships illegal.
Like Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, Russia already imposes illegal fees and other restrictions on ships passing through the Northern Sea Route. Ships passing through this sea route must pay customs duties to Russia and comply with strict pollution rules and harsh insurance standards. Russia is also forcing private foreign vessels on the Northern Sea Route to use Russian ice guides and icebreaker escorts. So Russia essentially determines which ships use the Northern Sea Route. The Russian Warship Law of 2022 also requires a 90-day warning for the passage of foreign warships, restricts the route to one warship at a time, and requires submarines to emerge to the surface. This law violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The warship law also means that any warship sailing through the Northern Sea Route without Russia's permission would violate Russia's domestic law. Any passage of a foreign warship therefore carries the risk of conflict with Russia.
How China Supports Illegal Russian Claims to the Northern Sea Route
China supports Russia's illegal maritime claims. Beijing and Moscow are increasingly working together to expand their military presence in the Arctic. A Chinese icebreaker successfully crossed the Northern Sea Route in September 2024. In 2025, Russia announced that it was training Chinese sailors to work in polar conditions, while Moscow and Beijing agreed to collaborate on a project on the "Polar Silk Road". In addition to demonstrating military cooperation against the United States, the trade-offs China is getting to support Russia's claims to the Northern Sea Route are priority access to this region, but also to Russian oil and LNG, which are under sanctions.
China's support for Russia's strategic goals in the Arctic is likely to continue. Beijing needs the Northern Sea Route to evade sanctions and promote its energy security. In return, it provides Moscow with diplomatic cover, financial investment in the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, and more military support. Since submarine cables are to be laid in the Northern Sea Route, Russian control is actually promoting China and Russia's desire for cyber dominance — which in turn threatens the free and open internet.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters for the Control of the Northern Sea Route
Recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz would embolden Russia in the Arctic. Iran has achieved in a few months what Russia has been trying to do in the Northern Sea Route for years. Iran has declared control over the Strait, determined which ships will pass through, imposed strict tariffs and rules, and granted privileged access to partner states. Thanks to the example of Iran, Russia knows that it will have a strong negotiating asset vis-à-vis the United States and Europe if it demonstrates its military might to assert its dominance over the Northern Sea Route. Russia's veto power in the Security Council, combined with that of China, ensures that the Council will never approve the use of force to thwart Moscow's ambitions in the Arctic.
The United States should continue its efforts to promote freedom of navigation globally, and protest Russia's claims to sovereignty over the Northern Sea Route. Washington has been protesting Moscow's claims diplomatically since 1963, a necessary step to ensure that Russia's claims are not anchored in international law. Stepping up diplomatic efforts and coordinating them with NATO allies would put more pressure on Russia. The United States could also promote international shipping standards through the International Maritime Organization in order to prevent Russia's internal regulations from becoming de facto world norms. This coordination must take place before the increasing commercial value of the Northern Sea Route creates competitive incentives. The United States must show that it is determined to keep the waters of the Arctic free and open.
People watch the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow also has its sights set on the north. Ensuring that Iran does not have sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — in law or in practice — will set a precedent for the Northern Sea Route and other Straits around the world. To avoid a crisis on NATO's northern flank, the US and its allies must step up their reactions to Russia's claims to the Northern Sea Route before... the ice melts.
Forbes
