Northern Europe is experiencing suffocating conditions with residents facing heatwaves and record temperatures due to the heat dome. This phenomenon has already caused 11 deaths, while several more people are fighting for their lives. Meteorologist Kleanthis Nicolaides explains to "F" what a thermal dome is, clarifying that it will not affect Cyprus. However, he expresses fears about the El Niño system and the polar jet stream, which may hit our region with prolonged droughts, at a time when the water issue is a serious problem.
The characteristics of the thermal dome, the meteorologist explains, are related to its name. "It is called thermal, because the air temperature is high. And a dome, because if we look at the structure of the atmosphere in central Europe from a distance, we will notice that it is thicker than it is in other regions of the planet. That a dome is formed, a high-pressure system."
Globally, the meteorologist explains, there are some permanent centers of high and low pressure. "The region of Cyprus and Europe is affected by the permanent anticyclone of the Azores (North Atlantic anticyclone), that is, this high-pressure system, for a few days now it has extended from the Azores to the Iberian Peninsula, to Portugal, Spain, France and to the north now. The consequence is that this system presses on the layers of the atmosphere where humans live, the layers of the atmosphere, resulting in a rise in temperature. As a result, even extremely high temperatures are recorded."
The system, says Mr. Nikolaidis, affected Portugal and Spain in the previous days, now France and Germany and gradually England and Scandinavian countries.
"Very high temperatures combined with apnea – since high-pressure systems do not have air – and with the humidity that exists in several European countries due to lakes and rivers, create conditions that lead to a heat wave," he emphasizes and adds that for this reason orange warnings were issued in several areas. For example, he said, record temperatures were reported in France, such as 35 degrees to 40 degrees Celsius.
"This hot dome will not reach us in Cyprus and it will not affect us. Gradually, the high-pressure system will weaken. It is already moving to the northeast, in areas that are far away. In fact, it seems that in the coming days there will be rain in the region of France, where high temperatures are now recorded."
Cyprus, said Mr. Nicolaides, is currently affected by a seasonal center of low pressure, which brings local rains or even thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. However, he said over the weekend the mercury is rising.
The fear of drought, El Niño and the polar jet stream
Mr. Nikolaidis expressed concern about the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, the location of the polar jet stream and the prolonged drought it will cause.
"Last winter was a very rainy winter. We started from 9.3% dam occupancy and reached 43.8% today, but the water problem of Cyprus has not been solved. We had this blessed winter as the La Niña (which means girl) phenomenon prevailed, which has to do with the temperature of the waters of the Pacific Ocean in the Equatorial zone. With La Niña the temperature is lower than normal in that area, the water is colder," he says.
However, things are expected to change. "Now there are indications that we are leaving the La Niña phenomenon, we are going to its neutral phase, that is, the normal temperature of the water, in anticipation of a strong El Niño phenomenon, which means Divine Infant since it grows gigantic at Christmas."
El Niño, he underlined, raises the temperature of Pacific Ocean waters in the equatorial zone, perhaps up to 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal. "This has an impact on the global climate development, causing droughts in some places and a lot of rain in others.
Cyprus will also be affected by the El Niño phenomenon, but because it is extremely small, one cannot say with certainty what exactly will happen. However, what affects us a lot in Cyprus is the location of the polar jet stream. If it is kept north this year and not so south to catch our island, then we will have a very dry winter."
This year, instead of El Niña, we will have El Niño, a typical Cypriot summer and possibly a dry winter. After all, he says, empirical observation shows that dry year sequences have increased, and individual rainy years are becoming rarer.
"What always worries me is the water problem of Cyprus. I am very concerned about how the state will manage the existing water in the dams, in view of the fact that a desalination will not take place. In view of the fact that water is not already being given to serve the agricultural sector," he concluded.
