FRONT CLIFF AND BACK STREAM IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ - Filenews 9/5
In an effort to establish a peculiar control over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is attempting to impose a maritime surveillance regime in practice, extending its claims even to areas connected to critical port facilities in the United Arab Emirates.
This development intensifies the concern both in the international shipping community and in the energy markets, as it concerns one of the most important oil transport channels in the world.
The climate of uncertainty that has developed in the region has led many shipping companies to wait, avoiding applying for transit permission from the Iranian authorities, for fear of possible US sanctions.
As a result, a large number of merchant ships remain inactive or move with extreme caution in and around the Straits.
Iranian MP Saeedi claimed that about 1.500 ships are waiting to receive approval from Tehran to leave the area, which reflects the extent of the disruption to navigation.
According to maritime security company Diaplous, trade traffic has been limited almost exclusively to small general cargo ships serving Iran, mainly under 75 meters, as well as some small cargo ships under Indian and Comoros flags.
At the same time, Tehran has issued new guidelines, through which it attempts to establish a maritime "control zone" in the region.
Iran's new route mapping system around the island of Larac has intensified the degree of civilian and military oversight exercised over trade crossings through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran (IRGC) has instructed merchant ships wishing to pass through the strait to coordinate with Iranian authorities and follow designated routes near Larak Island.
According to the reported routing scheme, inbound ships heading to the Gulf pass north of Larak Island, near the Iranian coastline, while outbound ships pass south of the island.
This arrangement shifts traffic closer to the waters claimed by Iran and gives the IRGC greater ability to monitor passing ships.
Iran has also designated areas of controlled or limited surveillance between traffic lanes overseen by the IRGC.
This is a departure from the traditional traffic separation system, which relied more heavily on routes related to Omani waters and internationally managed navigation schemes.
While international maritime law still recognizes the rights of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, critics argue that the new system increases Iran's operational control over ships during their transit.
What is of greatest concern, however, in the shipping and energy markets is that this zone seems to extend to maritime areas functionally related to important ports in the United Arab Emirates, such as Khor Fakkan and Fujairah.
These ports have acquired particular strategic importance in recent years, acting as key hubs for transshipment and energy supply, especially after the significant decline in shipping within Hormuz.
Shipping and energy sources estimate that the Iranian strategy is aimed at maintaining a strong influence over the oil flows of the Gulf.
Also at the center of concern is the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, through which the UAE is attempting to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The expansion of the Iranian "control zone" increases the pressure on this energy route, as it creates conditions of immediate threat to both the pipeline and the sea flows that end up in Fujairah.
It should also be noted that according to NBC News, Saudi Arabia refused to allow the United States to use military bases and Saudi airspace for Operation Freedom, a development that - according to the same information - was one of the main reasons that led Donald Trump to suspend the operation.
This stance is interpreted by analysts as a sign that Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid direct involvement in a military escalation with Iran, fearing possible attacks on oil facilities and the country's critical energy infrastructure.
At the same time, it demonstrates the difficulties faced by the US in setting up a fully coordinated regional security front to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
It is also noted that the US blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart from Iranian ports remains in full force. CENTCOM forces continue to act to ensure compliance.
Fleet under pressure and "shadow" navigation in the Persian Gulf
According to Signal Ocean data available to the shipbroker Xclusiv Shipbrokers, a total of 186 bulk carriers and tankers of various categories are currently recorded within the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz region.
The picture shows a significant presence of tankers and bulk carriers, however market players point out that the data cannot be considered fully representative, as part of the fleet may be operating with AIS deactivated due to the increased geopolitical tension in the region.
The largest category is small bulkers with 50 ships, followed by handysize with 26 and panamax with 20 ships. Eight kamsarmax, six post-panamax, four supramax, four ultramax, four capesize, three handymax and three mini-capesize are also present. MR2 dominates with 25 ships, followed by MR1 with 11.
There are also eight VLCCs, five panamax/LR1, five aframax/LR2, as well as four suezmax. Of particular interest is the fact that about 40% of the tankers located in the Strait of Hormuz are classified as sanctioned vessels, while in bulk carriers the corresponding percentage is estimated at 11%.
This data reflects the significant presence of vessels related to sanctioned transport networks, mainly in the oil trade.
Shipping market players emphasize, however, that the term "trapped ships" cannot be used, as several of the ships remain in the area awaiting loading instructions or commercial orders.
In addition, there is no clear picture of how many of the ships entered the area after the crisis began and how many were already inside the Gulf before the escalation of tensions.
