UKRAINE IS DOING SURPRISING WELL IN THE WAR IN IRAN - Filenews 3/4
By Marc Champion
Donald Trump's decision to get involved in a war in the Middle East has dealt a huge blow to Ukraine. He saved Russia from a fiscal crisis, tested Kiev's indebted benefactors in Europe, depleted stockpiles of critical US weapons that Ukraine is now less likely to receive, and prompted the White House to pressure – once again – Volodymyr Zelensky to accept Russia's territorial claims.
But why does the president of Ukraine seem so unperturbed?
There are, without a doubt, many reasons, but one of them is that Ukraine has now created bargaining chips since the American president told Zelensky a year ago that he had none. Another reason is the significant loss of US influence over Kiev, simply because they now offer less and therefore have less for which they can threaten to withdraw.
In that now-infamous "ambush" in the Oval Office, Zelensky's calm reaction seemed to reveal in a harsh way the degree to which his country is dependent on American support for its survival. Just in November, he told Ukrainians that they might soon be faced with one of the most difficult choices in their history: succumb to Russia's terms or lose an indispensable ally, the United States.
Today, as the White House again pressures Kiev to accept Russia's request to hand over the so-called "fortress zone" that has been the key to halting the Russian advance for four years, Zelensky reacted. He said the U.S. is linking its offer of security guarantees to the implementation of Russia's territorial ultimatum.
Foreign Minister Marco Rubio was visibly surprised and called Zelensky a liar. He also said that the door was open for the withdrawal of US weapons destined for Kyiv, as part of NATO's so-called PURL program. However, instead of backing down for fear of displeasing Washington as in the past, Ukraine's president responded by further elaborating on his claim.
All of this needs some explanation, given Ukraine's heavy reliance on American-made Patriot interceptor missiles to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, as well as Himars missile systems and satellite and other intelligence that have helped so much in targeting Russian forces. What has changed is that the US no longer provides so much to Kyiv.
Since Trump took office, Congress has not approved new funds for Ukraine, while the previous administration's funding lines have dried up over time. Trump effectively wiped out most of the support for Ukraine and capitalized on what was left, forcing Ukraine's other allies to pay for it through PURL.
"We have passed the zenith of [Trump's] policy," Mykola Bielyeskov, a researcher at the Kyiv National Institute for Strategic Studies, which advises Zelensky's office, told me. "To threaten something, you have to have that in order to withdraw it — but we already had a shortage of interceptor missiles, and after this conflict in Iran, U.S. influence has been further curtailed."
The lifting of sanctions against Russia is no longer such a big threat, as the US has already relaxed the most important ones, those related to crude oil exports, in order to help deal with the increase in oil prices caused by the war in Iran. Even the amount of US intelligence information shared in Ukraine has decreased, now that attention and resources have shifted to the Middle East, according to Bjelyeshkov. Meanwhile, offering American security guarantees is rapidly losing its appeal.
After all, why give up critical defensive positions and territories in exchange for the promise of protection from an American president that gives new meaning to the concept of unreliability?
At the same time, Ukraine itself has become more attractive as a partner in the field of security, due to its innovations and experience in drone warfare. These have allowed it to repel the Russian navy from parts of the Black Sea, while recent developments in both intercepting drones and robotic vehicles are helping to offset Russia's large numerical advantage in manpower, tanks and artillery.
Russia's spring offensive has begun and, judging by the protests of some of the country's nationalist military bloggers, is suffering record losses with almost no territorial gains. They attribute this to Russia's inability to keep up with Ukraine's technological innovation.
On the one hand, the so-called "death zone" around Ukraine's vanguards has become more deadly, and on the other hand, the supply of Russian forces is at increasing risk at a depth of about 120 kilometers behind the front lines. The increased production of drones and long-range missiles has allowed Ukraine to hit Russian energy infrastructure up to 2.000 km away, putting 40% of its oil export capacity out of service at some point - allegedly.
Zelensky has begun to use these achievements in the search for new allies. Shortly after the start of the war in the Middle East on February 28, he hastily sent about 200 instructors in the field of intercepting drones to the Gulf states, drawing on Ukraine's experience in shooting down Iranian Shahed-type drones, offering help in their own war in exchange for support for his own.
The Ukrainian leader said he signed ten-year, billion-dollar deals with three of these oil-rich nations – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – late last week. He said the agreements were for the supply and joint production of Ukrainian drones, as well as the provision of know-how, in exchange for energy from the Gulf and other "scarce resources". He did not specify who they were, but had previously stated that he would be looking for interceptor missiles. Saudi Arabia has one of the world's largest arsenals of Patriot missiles, which Ukraine still desperately needs, and in January received State Department approval to purchase another 730.
Zelensky also offered to help create, in the Strait of Hormuz, a multi-layered defense system, similar to the one that keeps the Russian fleet at a distance and the Black Sea open for Ukrainian exports.
Whether Ukraine could actually "open" Hormuz, how long it can maintain its renewed technological advantage over a Russia with new funding, and how much its Gulf deals will actually yield, are all open questions. But the loss of American influence in Kiev is clear and should raise questions in the White House.
For example, when planning the attack on Iran, why didn't they focus on the lessons learned from how Ukraine deals with the Iranian Shahed? Why has the White House not recognized that Kiev is no longer just a military burden, but also a resource – even for the mighty US military? Why does he continue to reduce the pressure on President Vladimir Putin, even as he helps Iran kill American soldiers and Zelensky offers to help protect them?
Or, to put it in terms more familiar to President Trump, Ukraine has some unexpectedly good cards, so, play them.
