TURKEY - SECURITY GAPS CAUSED BY THE WAR - Filenews 5/4 by Costas Venizelos
Turkey's geopolitical limits have been shown by the ongoing war in the region. It is clear from the developments that the US-Israel military conflict with Iran did not confirm what Ankara itself highlights and presents in terms of its geopolitical value. It is confirmed that Turkey does not have a leading role in the developments. It has a role, but it is not at the forefront of developments.
It is clear that this time, due to various circumstances, the game did not "turn out" as Ankara wanted. That is, as happened in the case of the Ukrainian issue, which had the role of a mediator and functioned supposedly "bridging". Its tactics did not work, while Turkey itself, high in the hierarchy, seems to be concerned about its ability to react to Iranian attacks.
This war, therefore, has further highlighted that Turkey has dependencies in terms of its security as well. It does not seem to be able to face attacks on its own and that is why it has asked for the help of its NATO partners. Any Iranian missiles heading towards Turkey have been intercepted by the Americans and NATO and not by Turkishair defenses. In view of these data, Ankara has asked Washington to strengthen with anti-ballistic systems. Also, according to the Athenian "Kathimerini", Ankara seems to have asked the Netherlands, through NATO, to transfer to Turkey a Patriot artillery battery that they have ceded to Ukraine. The argument of Ankara's representatives in the Alliance was that Ukraine is not a NATO country, therefore Turkey is ahead and must defend itself.
Turkish priorities
At the same time, it is clear that for Ankara the problems are ahead. And these concern in the first phase the Kurdish issue, which is not excluded in a "new order of things", which will be imposed on the region, for the issue of a state to return to the Kurds, who, by the way, are making cautious moves. The second is immigration. It is an issue that is already preoccupying Ankara and there is a fear that mass migration flows will begin. There is, of course, the dimension of the economic consequences, which concerns all countries.
Turkey, while acknowledging its weaknesses, is clear that it will not stop promoting its goal of becoming an autonomous regional power. It has already taken many steps in this direction and has expanded to different regions of the planet. It is a country that has military bases outside of Turkey. In addition to occupied Cyprus, it has bases in African countries (Somalia), Qatar, among others, while it maintains a presence in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan. Its expansionist policy is also expressed through the construction of infrastructure projects (airports, schools, hospitals) in various countries of Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, creating a relationship of dependence, which is also reinforced by Turkish "philanthropy".
No one can doubt the strong Turkish footprint in various regions of the planet, however, at this stage, on the occasion of what is happening in the region, the data is being evaluated in Ankara as "corrective moves" are obviously needed. In a period of power redistribution, the Erdogan regime obviously does not want to "miss the train" and be out of the new state of affairs.
Ankara, although it was cooperating with Iran, did not want and does not want a strong Persian, Shiite power to dominate. He prefers a weak and divided Iran. Turkey, therefore, believes that with a weak Iran, which will not be an alternative center of power to it in the region, it will have a "clear landscape" against Israel. The possibility of a clash between the two countries is not visible, but this is not ruled out in the future, as both want to prevail in the region. After all, the protagonists, the leaders of the two countries, have proven to be dangerous operators of developments.
Its attention to Cyprus
Turkey always holds Cyprus high in relation to its geopolitical aspirations, considering the occupied territories important for its security. Ankara believes that its presence on the island "breaks" its encirclement by various actors in the region or, including the Republic of Cyprus. At the same time, however, it has been confirmed over time that when Turkey is pressured, it makes moves in Cyprus. Either by actions on the ground (the tactic of advancing in areas of the buffer zone), or by creating tension with rhetorical outbursts. Cyprus used to be its "decompression outlet" and its point of reference to highlight its enforcement power.
Turkey is clearly not threatened by Cyprus. At the same time, however, Cyprus is being used by the occupying power to strengthen its plans in the region. It is considered a security arm for Turkey. That is why it wants to fully control the island and does not favour any other presence, which may threaten or influence its plans. Hence its reaction to the presence of forces, European states, in the maritime area of Cyprus.
The most important thing, perhaps, is that Turkey would never want Greece militarily in the southern part of Cyprus and against it. And he has confirmed this many times.
In and out of frame
Cyprus, as it is known, entered the frame of developments due to the drone strike on the British Akrotiri Base. But precisely because it was placed in the "picture", without seeking it, on the contrary, it also entered the security system of the area. It coordinates with all the forces operating in the region. What was shown from the result is that the Republic of Cyprus can rely on Europe for its security. To be precise, to our European partners and of course to Greece. Regardless of the relations it has developed and maintains with the USA and Israel, which in this case are part of the problem, the Republic of Cyprus has found support in its European partners. After all , it could not - and rightly so - make an appeal for the strengthening of its security towards the warring countries.
At the same time, the developments, everything that has taken place, lead Nicosia to make moves to strengthen its security. Obviously, it cannot rely only on third parties. Having open channels with France, Greece, and the USA, the defense shielding of the Republic of Cyprus enters another level in terms of its armament program. The developments in the region and the data on the ground lead Cyprus to readjust its defense doctrine. It leads them to invest in defense.
At the same time, as it is known, the issue of the British Bases has also been opened, as a result of the clumsy handling of the British in the first days of the war, which also targeted Cyprus. Nicosia is determined to move forward with this issue to the end, moving evolutionarily. Inevitably, this dialogue will begin and London knows it.
It has, to a large extent, put the water in the groove in relation to this issue. What London may be concerned about is the stance of the United States on this issue.
Cyprus issue: Turkey kills small steps, so that they do not become big
The occupying side kills the small steps that can be taken on the Cyprus problem, in order to prove that they cannot be taken even big. This is the tactic methodically followed by the occupying side with the aim of highlighting the inability to proceed with a negotiation process, which Nicosia is requesting. Discussions on the opening of new passages on either side of the occupation line are not progressing, while at the same time, the Turkish side, among other things, has turned around the issue of photovoltaic parks, demining.
The tactic of gnawing at time is a timeless tactic, which has been applied by Ankara for a long time and yields in the sense that the Cyprus problem has remained stagnant for decades.
At the same time, the occupying side also creates a climate of tension, which aims to disorient from the substance. The case with the visit to the Khalan Sultan mosque confirms that the goal was not to carry out the pilgrimage but to cause a mini crisis and to denounce Nicosia for "cutting" the visit. On the issue of visits, there is an agreed procedure, which the Turkish side has chosen to bypass.
It is clear that the Turkish side is not discussing anything other than a two-state solution, aiming at a form of confederation. Tufan Erhurma, for example, is from the period of the so-called pre-election period who avoids mentioning a federal solution. It may not refer directly to atwo-state solution, but it does not speak of a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation either. The non-reference to the BBF is a choice to adapt to Ankara's instructions. Erhurman refers to cooperation between the two states. By this he directly means a confederation solution.
It is clear that this new effort, to the extent that it goes ahead, will be the last of the outgoing Secretary-General of the United Nations. Antonio Guterres appears determined to leave his own imprint on the Cyprus problem before his departure. Although he is aware of the difficulties, he will make his own last test, despite the failures he had in the past.
The Secretary General has all the facts before him. He recently visited Ankara and discussed the Cyprus problem with the occupying leadership. He has gotten the feeling that the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, does not seem to react to any attempt as if it is led (or will lead to failure), then it will suit the Turkish narrative. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, appears harsher and more absolute.
