By the Bloomberg editorial team
Even if the U.S. and Iran somehow reach an agreement on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the cessation of hostilities will not magically restore the previous state of shipping via the disputed sea route. An alliance of more than 30 countries, led by Britain and France, has begun to look into this problem. Success will require three things: the removal of mines, the creation of a reliable convoy to protect the ships and the restoration of the ability to secure the vessels.
Let's start with the mines. It is estimated that Iran has up to 6,000 mines, which can be deployed in a short time from small boats or tiny submarines. He has used them to disastrous effect in the past, causing serious damage to a US frigate during the so-called "Tanker War" in the 1980s. While estimates differ on the number of weapons that Iranian forces may have deployed, even a modest deployment would threaten shipping in the narrow corridor and it could take weeks, if not months, for a force with sufficient resources to remove it.
Moreover, mine clearance is not just a technical project – but a problem that requires the cooperation of all armed forces. Minesweeper boats move slowly and have minimal defensive cover. Convoy, air cover, and missile defense systems are essential for any reliable minesweeping mission. These efforts may have to continue for a long time, as mines can be repositioned.
The US is not in a position to manage this project on its own. The old Avenger-class mine detection ships based in Bahrain were withdrawn last year. Coastal warships carry the Navy's autonomous mine response package. However, this relatively new system took several years to develop and its operational effectiveness is still a matter of debate.
Any serious demining initiative will therefore require a joint effort. Britain and France can contribute with their own autonomous mine detection systems. The U.S. can help by providing intelligence, surveillance, as well as air and missile defense. Then, if it is possible to open a corridor, international forces should, at least initially, offer protection to merchant ships from harassment, drones and attacks by high-speed vessels. This will require a naval presence, clear rules of engagement, logistical support and unified command.
Finally, shipowners will seek relief in insurance premiums. As long as there is a possibility of a resumption of hostilities, the premiums against the risk of war are likely to remain at prohibitively high levels. In previous crises, governments had taken on the role of insurer of last resort: a mechanism called "Unity", created in parallel with the Black Sea grain corridor, halved the cost of premiums.
The task of the alliance is therefore clear. First, it needs to be ready for business once an agreement is reached, rather than waiting for perfect conditions that may never come. That means laying mines and frigates – as France and the Netherlands have begun to do – and planning for ongoing clearance operations, not isolated mine-detection exercises.
Second, governments should work with the shipping and insurance communities to decide what constitutes a "clean" route and how it will be certified. The rules of engagement for escort forces must also be published, in order to convince insurers and shipowners.
Although some U.S. officials have underestimated the intentions of the Europeans, the U.S. has a clear interest in supporting these efforts. The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz directly affect global oil prices, financial markets, and the economies of their trading partners around the world.
The Straits will reopen not because governments say so, but when the dangers in the waters of Hormuz are eliminated and the rules of an international support mission are reliable enough to allow ships to sail. It would be in the interest of the U.S. to support, not reprimand, allies who can help achieve this goal.
BloombergOpinion
