Early data shows 2026 already among the hottest years, despite cooling La Niña conditions at the start.
Climate researchers expect 2026 to rank among the hottest years ever recorded, with a strong El Niño likely to push global temperatures higher as the year progresses.
Data from several scientific groups show that the first quarter of 2026 already ranks as the fourth warmest on record, even though weak La Niña conditions had a cooling influence. At the same time, Arctic sea ice has fallen to record lows for this time of year.
Forecasts indicate that a powerful El Niño could form by early autumn. If this happens, global temperatures are expected to climb further, increasing the likelihood that 2026 could challenge recent heat records. Current estimates give roughly a 19% chance that it could surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever measured, though it is more likely to place second.
El Niño is a warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide. It can trigger extreme conditions such as droughts, heavy rainfall, and marine heatwaves. Scientists monitor sea surface temperatures in a region known as Niño3.4 to assess its strength. A rise above 0.5°C signals El Niño conditions, while readings above 1.5°C indicate a strong event. When temperatures exceed 2°C, the event is often classified as “super” El Niño.
Recent climate model projections suggest that temperatures in this region could reach around 2.2°C above average by September. If that level is reached, it would qualify as a very intense event. El Niño episodes typically reach their peak between November and January, meaning the strongest effects would likely be felt late in the year and into early 2027. A particularly intense episode could also set the stage for 2027 to become the warmest year on record.
Predicting the strength of El Niño this far in advance has traditionally been difficult. Reliable forecasts usually become clearer closer to midyear. However, a new study from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa proposes a different approach that can estimate El Niño and La Niña conditions up to 15 months ahead.
Instead of relying on complex climate simulations or large AI systems, the researchers built a model using two key indicators. One is sea level variation in the tropical Pacific, which reflects the accumulation of heat in ocean waters. This method traces back to oceanographer Klaus Wyrtki, who used tide gauge data to anticipate El Niño events decades ago. The second factor is global sea surface temperature patterns, including regions outside the tropical Pacific, which can influence future developments months later.
By applying historical data from these indicators, the team tested whether their model could have predicted past El Niño and La Niña events over the last 60 years. The results showed strong accuracy, with useful forecasts extending more than a year ahead.
Their current projections point to a significant El Niño forming later in 2026, with temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rising more than 2°C above average. Early forecasts like this can help governments and communities prepare for potential impacts, from water shortages to flooding risks, allowing more time to plan and respond effectively.
