IN THE SHADOW OF THE CONFLICT IN LEBANON - WHAT THE EMERGENCY PLANNING PROVIDES FOR MASS ARRIVALS OF MIGRANTS - THOUSANDS OF SYRIANS HAVE RENOUNCED THEIR PROTECTION STATUS - Filenews 13/4 by Petros Afxentiou
The military conflicts in the wider Middle East region and in particular, the heavy blows that neighbouring Lebanon has been receiving in recent days, put the competent authorities on increased alert, in view of possible new migration flows to Cyprus.
Although the overall picture of recent months shows a significant decrease in irregular arrivals, there is no room for complacency, as the situation in the region remains highly fluid and unpredictable.
"The government has developed a multi-level network of measures"
In this context, the Deputy Minister of Migration, Nikolas Ioannidis, analyzed to Filenews the emergency planning to deal with possible mass arrivals, underlining that the government has already developed a multi-level network of measures, which covers both the prevention and management of a possible crisis, with the aim of a timely and effective response.
Initially, the Deputy Minister clarified that so far, there has been no change in migration flows to the Republic of Cyprus as a result of developments in the Middle East. "The picture that exists is that the affected populations are moving mainly within their countries or to neighbouring states and there is no direction of flows to Cyprus. This does not mean complacency," he said.
He added that the wider Middle East region remains unstable and any armed conflict may create new data. "This is beyond our control, but it is underlined for the umpteenth time that Cyprus is not part of the conflict. For this reason, the situation is being assessed on an ongoing basis and the operational readiness of the competent services remains increased."
Asked if there is an increase in migrant arrivals due to the war in neighbouring Lebanon, he replied that based on the available data and the image of the competent services, there is currently no increase in arrivals from Lebanon or other neighbouring countries.
He stressed that the overall picture of the last months confirms that illegal arrivals remain significantly reduced. This is linked to the overall policy of prevention, control and management implemented by the Republic of Cyprus.
Regarding the measures taken to deal with migration flows, Mr. Ioannidis underlined that the government has developed a multi-level network of measures that covers both the prevention and the management of a possible crisis.
As he said, the measures taken include the increased surveillance of the sea borders and the Ceasefire Line, operational monitoring by technological means, the acceleration of the procedures for examining asylum applications and the strengthening of the returns of third-country nationals to their homeland.
What does the contingency planning for Lebanon provide?
He also underlined that the Republic of Cyprus has contingency planning in place to deal with possible mass arrivals, including scenarios involving Lebanon or another neighbouring country. This planning is not theoretical, but is part of the overall preparedness of the state services for crisis management. This includes both the National Emergency Plan and the National Special Plan "Naukratis", which concerns the management of the mass arrival of people in need of protection. In the event that such a possibility arises, the response of the Republic will be based on ready-made mechanisms of coordination, operational mobilization and cooperation at national and European level.
"Cyprus has clearly set out the need for practical European support"
He added that the Republic of Cyprus is proceeding with its full preparation for the implementation of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum, which strengthens both border controls (with the exception, of course, of the "Green Line", which is not considered a border) and crisis management tools. "The goal is for the country to be able to respond in a timely, organized and adequate manner, if new pressures arise."
In addition, he pointed out that the Republic of Cyprus is in constant coordination with the European Union, the European Commission and the member states. "As a frontline state, Cyprus has clearly set out the need for practical European support in the event of a new refugee crisis. The European framework is stronger today than in the past. This allows for better preparation, faster mobilization of solidarity mechanisms and more substantial support to member states that may be under increased migratory or refugee pressure," he said.
The role of European powers off Cyprus
At the same time, European forces are concentrated off Cyprus with the aim of protecting the Republic of Cyprus. The Deputy Minister was asked if these forces function as a deterrent measure for the trafficking of boats with irregular migrants, explaining that the prevention of illegal trafficking is not based on a single measure, but on a combination of operational and political tools. Maritime patrols, technological surveillance, quick handling of asylum applications, and more efficient return procedures work together as a deterrent to smuggling networks. The overall presence of control and surveillance means in the area contributes more broadly to the deterrence environment. However, what is decisive for the Republic of Cyprus is the systematic implementation of its own operational measures and the constant pressure on illegal trafficking networks," he said.
Zero arrivals by sea - Flows from the occupied territories are a wound
The official data of the competent services also reveal the work done at the Deputy Ministry of Migration. Specifically, from January 1 until today, arrivals by sea are zero since no arrivals have been recorded.
All recorded arrivals are the result of crossings through the Ceasefire Line. In total, until the end of March 2026, the downward trend in flows continued, with only 436 arrivals recorded, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the measures taken. The main countries of origin of this year's arrivals are Somalia, Syria, Sudan, Iran and Nigeria.
In addition, from January 1 to April 3, voluntary and forced returns amounted to 2,155.
5,000 Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications
Since the day of regime change in Syria (09/12/2024) until today, almost 5,000 Syrians have either withdrawn their asylum application or renounced their protection status, with the aim of their repatriation. This flow continues, while for months we have been rejecting asylum applications and removing status from Syrians who are not entitled to asylum. Finally, it is worth noting that by the end of March, the pending applications amounted to 14,737.
