HEALTH IN CYPRUS IN THE VORTEX OF CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT RISKS DOES THE LANCET COUNTDOWN EUROPE 2026 REPORT RECORD? - Filenews 23/4 by Marilena Panayi
In the areas with the greatest increase in risk to humans due to heat and the highest increase in the death rate also due to heat, is Cyprus, which, among other things, is included in the high-risk countries for the transmission of infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes but also for the outbreak of allergic crises due to dust and prolonged flowering.
The effects of climate change in Europe are detailed in the Lancet Countdown Europe 2026 report, released yesterday, with the southern regions of the Old Continent and the Eastern Mediterranean being in the heart of the zone with the highest risk.
In general and for Europe in general, the report emphasizes that the region is entering a period of increasing health risk due to climate change, with the Mediterranean being among the most vulnerable areas.
For Cyprus, the already recorded incidents of heatstroke during the summer months each year, the presence of specific mosquito species and the effects of drought, are clear warning signs that prove that the effects are not just an assessment for the future but are a reality that is constantly evolving.
Lancet Countdown Europe 2026 indicators concerning Cyprus:
In the Lancet Countdown Europe 2026 report, it is pointed out that the exposure of the elderly to dangerous temperature days has increased significantly across Europe, with the Mediterranean regions recording the largest changes. Prolonged heatwaves, higher night temperatures and urban heat load, it is underlined, intensify the risk, especially for vulnerable population groups.
Regarding the thermal burden, the report states:
>> Significant increase in dangerous heat stress days across Southern Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean.
>> Greater exposure of older people (>65 years).
>> Increase in the intensity and duration of heat wave days compared to the 1990s.
Southern Europe appears:
>> In the areas with the largest increase in very hot days.
>> In areas with a higher increase in deaths attributed to heat.
The report points out that a total of about 52 additional deaths due to heat are recorded in Europe per million population, with the highest burden being found in the Mediterranean, Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The increase in deaths is characterized as "stable" over a period of 20 years with the elderly particularly vulnerable, while the increased exposure of the population in general to very high temperatures every year is underlined.
This picture is also reflected in Cyprus, as in recent years there have been repeated incidents of heat stroke during heat waves, mainly in the elderly (e.g. in 2024, deaths of elderly women from heat stroke were confirmed in Nicosia, while in the summer of 2025 there were also multiple serious admissions of patients with heat stress to public hospitals).
It is further stated that in Europe in general, heat warning episodes have increased by 318% compared to previous decades, with Cyprus being among the countries where heat waves have been recorded more frequently in recent years, with temperatures systematically exceeding 44 degrees Celsius during the summer months.
Risk for infectious diseases
The report records an increased risk of transmission:
>> Dengue fever.
>> West Nile Virus.
>> Leishmaniasis.
In particular, the likelihood of dengue fever transmission in Europe has increased, according to the report, by about 297% since the 1990s, a development that particularly concerns Mediterranean countries.
In Cyprus, after all, the confirmation of the establishment of the mosquito species Aedes albopictus (better known as the "tiger mosquito") by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2025 is considered a particularly important factor, since this species can transmit various viruses, including the virus that causes dengue fever and the chikungunya virus (closely monitored by the European Center in recent years). In addition, the country, based on the ECDC, has been classified in an increased risk category (risk level 2b) for these diseases.
For Southern and Eastern Europe, the report records an increased transmission period, an expansion of the risk zone and an increase in areas (land) considered as dangerous for the development of large mosquito populations.
Pollen period prolongation (allergen exposure)
The report records for Europe, an extension of the flowering period by one to two weeks compared to the 1990s. This also implies a prolonged presence of pollen. The phenomenon, according to the Lancet Countdown Europe 2026, is particularly found in central and southern Europe and the Mediterranean regions. It is associated with an increase in allergic rhinitis, worsening of asthma and, by extension, an increase in visits to health services.
Extreme drought
The report shows an increase in extreme summer droughts in 983 of the 1,435 European regions, with a stronger trend in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean. The effects of drought are also linked, as pointed out, to food security.
According to the report, more than one million additional Europeans were in moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023 compared to the period 1981–2010.
This is attributed to the decline in agricultural productivity due to high temperatures and limited water resources, factors that particularly affect Southern European countries.
At the same time, drought inevitably increases the risk of forest fires, with the report recording an increase in high fire risk index days in the Mediterranean.
Cyprus has already experienced severe episodes of forest fires in recent years, with significant impacts on the natural environment and air quality.
The Mediterranean appears, in the report, as a key zone for increasing the risk of fires.
Air pollution and health
The report for Europe generally records continued PM2.5 (harmful microparticles) pollution, differentiation between Western and Southern Europe, and cross-border pollution.
Southern Europe has a higher exposure to heat strokes, particulate matter and biomass combustion.
Although the Lancet Countdown Europe 2026 report does not separately examine African dust transport episodes, it does record a clear increase in the exposure of Southern European populations to particulate matter, in particular PM2.5, which is one of the most important environmental risk factors for public health.
These particles originate, among other things, from natural phenomena, such as the transport of dust from the desert, which affects the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. In Cyprus, dust episodes have been recorded more frequently in recent years, with the competent authorities making recommendations to the citizens.
Air pollution also remains a major risk factor for public health in Europe. As reported, despite the reduction in emissions in some sectors, the use of biomass for domestic heating increased related deaths by about 4% between 2000 and 2022.
The report also highlights that the health impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed across the population. The elderly, people with chronic diseases, urban dwellers and socially vulnerable groups are more exposed to risks related to heat, air pollution and infectious diseases.
