The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is not limited to the countries involved in the war, but also directly affects the security environment in Europe, intensifying concerns about new waves of terrorist activity. Attacks on Jewish synagogues have alerted the secret services of European countries, as the more military operations continue, the fears of terrorist attacks intensify. In the same context, the authorities of the Republic of Cyprus, on February 26, arrested a couple for terrorism offenses: a 28-year-old Azeri and a 27-year-old Estonian, who were allegedly carrying out actions against Israeli interests on the island. After their arrest, they were deported from the country.
The Director of Strategy International and Professor of International Security and Strategy at Vytautas Magnus University in Lithuania, Dr. Marios P. Efthymiopoulos, analyzed to Filenews the forms of terrorism that may appear in the coming period, while emphasizing the role played by the secret services in such conditions. Regarding Cyprus, he explained that the biggest risks are related to hybrid threats, cyberattacks, influence operations and intelligence activities.
In his initial statement, he pointed out that the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after the military operations related to Iran and its allies, directly affects the security environment in Europe. He noted how European security services closely monitor developments, as historically such conflicts act as accelerators of radicalization, propaganda and possible terrorist acts. "Despite the fact that Europe has strong prevention and cooperation mechanisms, modern threats are often decentralised, hybrid and difficult to predict. For this reason, understanding the trends, forms of terrorism and preventive security policies is crucial to maintaining stability and social security in the European Union," he stressed.
Since the start of the war in the Middle East, attacks on synagogues have been recorded in countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands. Is the escalation of the war with Iran likely to increase the risk of terrorist attacks?
The risk is indeed increasing, not necessarily in the form of large coordinated attacks but mainly through low- or medium-intensity incidents with high symbolism. The experience of recent decades shows that every major crisis in the Middle East has a direct impact on Europe's level of security.
According to Europol's Report on the Situation and Trends of Terrorism in the European Union (TE-SAT 2025), in 2024 there were 58 terrorist attacks recorded in the European Union, of which 34 were carried out, 5 failed and 19 were prevented. At the same time, 449 people were arrested for terrorist offences in 20 EU member states.
Conflicts in the Middle East influence the process of radicalisation through propaganda, ideological narratives and the mobilisation of extremist circles. In this context, symbolic targets such as synagogues, religious sites, and community institutions are often the subject of small-scale but large-scale psychological attacks.
Is there any evidence that extremist groups may attempt major strikes in Europe in response to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran?
To date, there is no confirmed information about plans for large-scale attacks in Europe. However, the security services are closely monitoring the possibility of mobilizing small cells or individual perpetrators.
Israel's National Security Council has from time to time issued warnings about potential threats against its citizens abroad. At the same time, in the past, operations linked to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps networks in European or neighbouring countries have been revealed.
In many cases the information relates more to threat indications than to specific operational plans. However, even these indications are considered important, as terrorist attacks are often organized in small groups or by individuals acting autonomously.
Which forms of terrorism are most likely to appear during this period?
The most likely forms of terrorism are attacks of low complexity but high symbolic impact. These can include attacks with improvised explosive devices, arson, knife attacks, or the use of vehicles as weapons.
Such attacks are often difficult to predict because they do not require complex organization. Perpetrators usually choose high-profile targets to cause maximum psychological effect by limited means.
Europol points out that the majority of arrests for terrorism in the EU are linked to jihadist terrorism, while other forms of violent extremism are on the rise.
How likely is the activation of "lone wolves" residing in European countries?
The activation of so-called "lone wolves" is considered one of the most likely scenarios of terrorist activity in Europe today. Many attacks in recent years have been carried out by people who have been radicalized online.
The spread of extremist propaganda on closed communication platforms and social networks allows for the rapid spread of hate ideologies. This makes prevention more difficult and requires a combination of digital surveillance and social prevention policies.
Is Cyprus, due to its geographical location as well as the presence of British bases, facing increased risks?
The geographical position of Cyprus places it in a particularly important geostrategic area near the Middle East. At the same time, the presence of the British bases in Akrotiri and Dhekelia integrates the island into the wider Western security system in the Eastern Mediterranean.
However, this does not mean that Cyprus is a direct target of terrorist attacks. The biggest risks are related to hybrid threats, cyberattacks, influence operations or intelligence activities.
What is needed is political will to strengthen the national security strategy, a clear distribution of responsibilities between services and effective control of critical infrastructure. Security is not only about dealing with military threats but also about the ability of the state to protect its society, economy and infrastructure in times of regional instability.
What measures should European countries take to prevent possible attacks?
European countries need to move along three main axes: strengthening the protection of critical targets, better detection of online radicalisation and strengthening cooperation between security services.
The protection of so-called "soft targets" such as schools, religious sites, airports, transport stations and large public events is a key priority. At the same time, greater investment in digital data analysis and artificial intelligence tools is needed to detect threats.
Equally important is the development of policies to prevent radicalisation at the social level, especially among younger ages, in order to address the ideological and social conditions that lead to extremist violence.
How important is the cooperation of the secret services between European states at this juncture?
Cooperation between intelligence services is key to preventing terrorist attacks. Modern extremist networks operate across borders and often radicalisation, funding and operational preparation take place in different countries.
For this reason, the exchange of information through European cooperation mechanisms is crucial. Organisations such as Europol and the European Counter-Terrorism Centre act as coordination hubs between states.
For countries such as Cyprus, it is also necessary to upgrade the national security system based on international standards and to strengthen the security mechanisms technologically within a clear strategic framework that will ensure the protection of citizens, legal residents and visitors.
