By the Bloomberg editorial team
It is becoming increasingly obvious that the White House has rushed into a war with Iran without fully considering the possible consequences. This is an additional reason to hasten the end of the conflict.
After nearly three weeks of hostilities, the U.S. is reaching the limits of its air power capabilities. Although U.S. and Israeli attacks have destroyed thousands of military targets and killed dozens of high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime remains standing. Drone and missile attacks on neighbouring countries and merchant ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have paralyzed the Persian Gulf region. Oil prices are skyrocketing – industries from agriculture to semiconductors are worried about shortages of key raw materials. Inflation fears are spreading.
The expansion of air strikes seems more likely to increase collateral damage and turn the population against the West than to overthrow the regime. A real replacement for the government – reportedly now led by Khamenei's equally hardline son Mojtaba – would require tens, if not hundreds of thousands, of US troops. Even more limited ground missions, such as the seizure of more than 440 kilograms of near-war-grade uranium believed to be buried under Iranian nuclear facilities, the seizure of the oil export hub on Harg Island, or areas of coastline to protect shipping, would dramatically increase the chances of a new impasse in the Middle East. And it is worrying that, reportedly, a Marine unit is now heading towards the area.
The White House has a better option: declare victory and de-escalate. It has already laid the groundwork for such a shift. After the president demanded "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" and veto power over Iran's new leaders on March 6, his administration has focused mainly on more achievable goals: weakening Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles, launchers and production capacity, destroying its regular navy and blocking its nuclear program. Based on these criteria, the president is not entirely crazy when he claims: "We won."
Critics argue that the U.S. cannot leave the job unfinished. Iran maintains enough enriched uranium to build at least 10 bombs, although the state of its remaining nuclear infrastructure is unclear. The security forces, although weakened, remain strong enough to suppress dissidents. The regime could rebuild its arsenal of drones at a relatively low cost. More importantly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps probably maintains enough anti-ship missiles, drones and mines to close the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, effectively holding its Gulf neighbours and the global economy hostage.
However, these risks must now be weighed against the alternatives.
However, these risks must now be weighed against the alternatives. It is unlikely that the US and Israel will detect and strike even the last missile launcher, centrifuge or commander of the Revolutionary Guards, even if the bombing continues for several more weeks. Meanwhile, the cost of continuing air strikes is not negligible. The Pentagon has spent over $11 billion in the first six days of the campaign alone. Ships, aircraft, troops and air defense missile batteries have been detached from other fronts, causing concern among allies. The fighting is depleting stockpiles of hard-to-find interceptor systems and long-range missiles, which are critical to deterring China.
In essence, the threat has undoubtedly been contained. Although Iran's leaders will undoubtedly declare victory when the U.S. stops hostilities, the regime has been seriously wounded. It will take time and money to rebuild his military capabilities, let alone his damaged network of proxies. At the same time, it will face the constant hostility of its neighbours and its own citizens. Sanctions will continue to strangle the Iranian economy, while its airspace will remain exposed to American or Israeli strikes.
If the U.S. doesn't have more high-value targets to hit, which would further undermine Iran's nuclear program, the White House will have to wrap up that campaign. It should, however, ensure that the regime knows that the conflict will recur if Iran disrupts shipping or launches new attacks, and that any sanctions relief should wait for a credible nuclear deal. Unless the U.S. has other high-value targets to strike that would further undermine Iran's nuclear program, the White House should put an end to that campaign, ensuring that the regime knows that the conflict will resume if Iran intercepts shipping or launches any attacks, and that any easing of sanctions should wait for a credible nuclear deal. In its own adventure in the Middle East, a previous US administration declared "mission accomplished" very quickly. The current government would be wise not to delay it much longer.
