RUSSIA AND CHINA SEEK TO TRAP THE US IN A LONG-RUNNING WAR - Filenews 14/3
By Melik Kaylan
The chaos of information coming from the Middle East on the one hand captures the fog of war and on the other hand betrays patterns. What started as a conflict between the US-Israel and Iran has now taken on a regional and global character. None of the participants wants to state it publicly, let alone Washington. And certainly not Moscow or Beijing. No leader wants to admit that he is fuelling a global conflict.
Nevertheless, essentially, Russia and China aim to turn Iran into something akin to Russia's war in Ukraine: a quagmire that consumes resources and manpower and alienates allies, as Ukraine did with Russia. Moscow and Beijing are willing to sacrifice plenty of Iranian blood in this process.
Let's look at the realities. Russia lost its influence in Syria, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries while fighting in Ukraine. Meanwhile, a number of anti-Russian states allied with Kyiv, mainly Poland and the Baltic states. Russia's strategic alliances were fragmented. Moscow has always considered that in the Caucasus and the Silk Road, its neighbouring countries had nowhere else to turn, as they were closed by land and geopolitically limited for centuries. Thus, the Kremlin could risk a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The neglect and mistreatment of its allies in the security pact would not change things.
This calculation turned out to be incorrect. Today, Armenia has restored its relations with its old enemies, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Ankara has opened Turkish Airlines flights to Armenia. These three countries are developing the Middle Corridor, which will move trade away from the control of Iran and Russia to Turkey and the Mediterranean, thus liberalizing trade in the region.
The Russia-China axis intends to achieve the equivalent of this breakup against the US through the war in the Middle East. That is, to fragment Washington's alliances, to threaten the dollar and American influence in the world's most strategically critical zone. For now, the U.S. has failed to defend strategic locations among its Arab allies, alienating them in this way. When your main protector can't adequately protect you or neglects your safety, you look for other deals. Hence the relentless Iranian attacks against the Gulf countries and shipping in the region.
Meanwhile, Iraq's Houthis and Shiite militias are rallying in favour of Iran. The Gulf's desalination plants remain vulnerable. If they are destroyed, the populations of the area will face a problem of survival. You can interpret all Iranian attacks in the region as a warning, as a sign of Tehran's ability to hit water facilities if the situation reaches extremes. At times, Iran has shown impressive precision in targeting its attacks.
The strategy wants Iran to be used to drag the U.S. into a deeper entanglement in the region — the U.S. has gone through this stage in the past, in Iraq, from 2003 onwards when Washington and its resources were so busy that Russia and China re-emerged as superpowers. Their plan is to involve the US again. Moreover, they have always believed that this was the American policy towards Russia early in the Ukraine war, intended to ensure that neither side wins. This, for Beijing and Moscow, even explains why the Biden administration did not give Ukraine powerful weapons or permission to attack Russia. The US did not want either side to win quickly. This slow-bleeding approach was, they believe, entirely deliberate on the part of Washington.
And now they intend to reverse the scenario. It is clear that the assistance to target the facilities in the Gulf came largely from the Russia-China axis. Tehran simply does not have the satellites for precision attacks on Gulf facilities, US bases or attempts against Incirlik air base in Turkey and Nakhchevan. The latter is a strategic bridge to the much-publicized Middle Corridor, which received a boost when Trump presided over a historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thus came the missile attacks against Azerbaijan, which has shown great restraint towards Iran, which is in dire straits. These are very specific goals, with strategic messages: "Your strategic alignment with America will not protect you."
The most critical question that arises is this: when will President Trump retire? Will it send troops, thus repeating the destruction of Iraq? If not, he can theoretically announce a unilateral cessation of hostilities at any time, right? If Moscow and Beijing intend to keep the U.S. "entangled" in the region for a long time, how can they prevent Trump from choosing his own withdrawal timeline? This is the crucial issue. And the simple answer is that they can do so by continuing attacks against America's allies, even after the US has announced a cessation of military operations. In this scenario, any attack against the Gulf, Turkey, Israel or Armenia/Azerbaijan is a blow to the timing and credibility of the American president. Or about his decision to involve the US in this story.
Why didn't all this happen in the previous "round": when the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities in 2025? Because there was no attempt to change regime or destroy Iran as a strategic ally of Russia and China. The regime remained in place, relatively capable of fulfilling its geopolitical functions for its supporters.
Certainly Iran will not be very functional in this role in the foreseeable future. Especially if internal strife continues, as the bombings weaken the regime's leaders and its soldiers. Meanwhile, Trump is not innocent either. He makes statements that he will end the war by saying that "the military operation is complete", but without doing so. Questioning his timing holds the enemy back on how many missiles and how many drones to use immediately or save for a later stage.
