ENERGY CRISIS WITHOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - WHAT IS PREDICTED? -Filenews 26/3
By Güney Yıldız
The amount of oil that can be transported if tankers bypass the Strait of Hormuz falls dramatically short of what is needed. Existing oil transit alternatives can make up for a maximum of 13-28% of the approximately 20 million tonnes. barrels per day that are normally traded through this sea route — even optimistic scenarios predict a cap of around 33%. This gap – between the expectations created for four decades by pipeline investment and the amount actually traded through pipelines – is the biggest risk to global energy markets. The military operation "Epic Wrath" closed the Strait on February 28.
There are three bypass roads for Hormuz. Each has a restriction. Together they are shaping a crisis that Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, QatarEnergy, Shell, TotalEnergies and every commodity trader, from Trafigura to Vitol, have to deal with in real time.
Petroline is responding — its terminal is not
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, a 1,201-kilometer dual-line system from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, is a key factor. Two pipelines carry 5 million. barrels of crude per day. The conversion of LNG pipelines into oil pipelines – a possibility first tested after drone attacks in 2019 that put 5.7 million people out of service. barrels per day in Abqaiq — increases production capacity to about 7 million barrels. barrels. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed the pipeline's full production capacity during the Q4 2025 financial results conference call. Exports from Yanbu almost tripled.
The pipeline lived up to expectations. The terminal, no.
Yanbu's two port facilities offer a nominal cargo capacity of 4.5 million tons. per day, but the actual loading capacity in emergency conditions is close to 3 million. barrels Tidal conditions limit the access of supertankers to 4 hours, twice a day. In the first two weeks of March, the majority of VLCCs experienced anchoring delays exceeding 36 hours. The bottleneck was shifted from the Strait of Hormuz to the pier. It didn't disappear.
There are two other routes. But none of them makes a difference.
The UAE's Habsan-Fujairah pipeline carries crude oil 380 km to the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz entirely. Capacity: 1.5 million barrels per day, with the possibility of an increase to 1.8 million. Before the crisis, its use reached 71%. Its reserve capacity amounts to 440,000 to 730,000 barrels per day. These numbers are important for ADNOC. But not for the global market.
Iraq's Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey's Mediterranean coast has a nominal capacity of 1.6 million cubic meters. barrels per day, but was completely shut down in March 2023 following a decision by an international arbitration court, which ruled in favor of Iraq in a dispute with Turkey, even requiring Ankara to pay $1.5 billion in compensation. dollars. A US-brokered deal restored flows in September 2025 to 150,000 barrels per day. The Hormuz crisis urgently necessitated the reopening of the pipeline. Iraq now transports about 250,000 barrels a day through the pipeline — about 6% of the quantities it previously exported from Basra. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has announced that the 1973 pipeline deal expires on July 27, 2026. Ankara is demanding higher transit fees, the cancellation of the fine imposed on it and the extension of the pipeline to Basra. This energy pathway may be shut down again at the worst time.
Qatar has no alternative route
Qatar is catastrophically exposed to this crisis. 100% of its LNG exports – about 80 million tons of LNG – are exported. tons per year, a fifth of world trade — passes through Hormuz through Ras Lafan. Qatar transports gas to the UAE and Oman via the Dolphin pipeline, but it serves regional power grids, not global LNG markets. For exports, there is no alternative. LNG needs cryogenic liquefaction infrastructure that doesn't exist elsewhere. QatarEnergy declared a state of force majeure on March 4. Iranian missile attacks damaged 17% of its production capacity. Repairs will be completed in 3-5 years. The expansion of the North Field – with partners TotalEnergies, Shell, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Eni as partners, with the aim of almost doubling production by 2030 – has been suspended indefinitely.
The number that explains it all
The excess capacity of the Petroline pipeline: 2.6 to 5 million tons. barrels per day. Fujaira: 440,000 to 730,000 barrels. Kirkuk-Ceyhan: 250,000 barrels. However, the actual production of Petroline is limited by the Yanbu terminal to about 3 million. barrels per day, and not at 7 million. that the pipeline can carry. After considering the terminal's constraints, the realistic total bypass capacity is between 2.6 and 5.5 million. barrels per day. If we divide it by the approximately 20 million. barrels per day in which the normal flow of Hormuz amounts, the result is 13-28%. The bypass capacity through LNG is zero.
This bypass infrastructure was designed for a short-term outage. The release of 400 million. barrels from the IEA's (International Energy Agency) emergency stockpile — the largest in the organization's 50-year history — earns weeks, not months. It does not fill the gap.
The variable that determines whether the current phase will be a price shock or develop into a systemic crisis is duration. Only demining can last months. With a bypass coverage from Hormuz at 13-28% and zero LNG alternatives, each additional week of closure of the Strait leads to an energy deficit that no existing infrastructure can cover.
