DO IT LIKE TRUMP - ALLIES TO PUT A PRICE ON AID TO HORMUZ - Filenews 19/3
Who would want to be a US ally in 2026?
Donald Trump started a war ignoring the advice and interests of some of America's closest friends, and this has consequences that only he seems to have failed to foresee. Now, after ignoring these allies – or in the case of the United Kingdom, underestimating them as useless – the American president is demanding that they help him in the Strait of Hormuz.
There are indications that they will agree. The United Kingdom, France and the European Union are looking at what they can do. Trump told the Financial Times that if they don't help, "it will be very bad for the future of NATO." Japan and South Korea are also considering helping. Although neither is a member of NATO, they know that they are at least as dependent on U.S. security and are therefore equally vulnerable to retaliation.
All these countries have a strong interest in reopening a sea route through which, under normal circumstances, 20 million barrels of oil have to pass through every day. Oil prices are rising, and the longer this situation continues, the more damage will be done to their economies. But Trump needs the opening of the Straits even more than that. Not only for financial reasons, but also to avoid "losing" a war of choice that he himself started. U.S. allies will have to set conditions for their help and take a price.
None of this applies to China, which Trump also appealed for help. Iran's tankers are still passing through Hormuz and supplying China with cheap oil, so it is unlikely that Beijing will volunteer to transport fuel for other countries. The US president says he will postpone his planned trip and meeting with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, if Beijing does not help, but that is more likely to sound like a gift than a threat: Iran is an ally of China and the war makes Trump a somewhat "uncomfortable" guest.
The hardest-hit countries are US allies in the Persian Gulf. The US military bases hosted by these countries were supposed to provide them with security precisely against such threats from Iran. On the contrary, the American presence has turned them into targets in a conflict that they have tried to prevent. The Trump administration's failure to prioritize Gulf allies will have long-lasting repercussions, prompting a reassessment of their security policies. However, for now, they need Hormuz open.
This is not a question of alliance, even if Trump wants to present it that way. NATO has a collective defense clause, but nothing obliges allies to participate in legally questionable military adventures – or "excursions," to use Trump's phrase – another ally. The same applies to the US allies with whom bilateral treaties have been signed in East Asia.
And yet, Trump now needs the military capabilities he has been mocking for so long, which means that these allies have bargaining power. Britain, France and Japan are leaders in mine clearance, including remote-controlled drones, a technology designed precisely for this kind of hostile environment. It is a mission that Britain is willing to participate in, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a news conference on Monday. Escorting ships, he admitted, will be more difficult.
The protection of tankers requires ships with air defense capabilities, and American ships equipped with this armament are already busy in tankers. Therefore, if the design and mission of this fleet does not change, the US needs another source of ships. And as long as there is no agreement between the US and Iran, these ships will be at risk.
There could not be a better example of the role of allies as a force multiplier. This is something Trump never understood, and allies should now use it to make demands.
To understand the conditions that U.S. allies will have to set, I asked Kevin Rowlands, a former Navy officer who until last year headed the Royal Navy's Center for Strategic Studies and is now editor of the journal of the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank. The first, he said, should be that any operation should be visibly independent of the US war effort. Europeans, Asians and Gulf states must not allow Trump to use the problem he created in Hormuz to drag them into a war that they and most of their voters oppose. This is something Starmer also emphasized on Monday.
Of course, this requires unusual discipline from Trump. It is also unlikely to make much of a difference to Iran's leaders for now, given that the closure of Hormuz is critical to their strategy in the war. They disrupt the flows through the Straits to drive up global oil prices enough for Trump to end the war on their own terms if he does not want to be "punished" at the polls because of the rising cost of living in the US. They will treat any interference in this strategy as a hostile act.
"Europeans, however, have to think about what will happen in one, two or six months from now," Rowlands told me. Then the intense conflict will have subsided, but Iran and its allies may want to continue the war by asymmetric means, including terrorist attacks. Crossing with Saudi or Pakistani ships, without an American flag, would matter in this long-running war.
However, any warships or minesweepers sailing through Hormuz will need the U.S. to provide real-time intelligence and air coverage. There is no way around the fact that the US controls the battlefield.
Beyond these operational issues, participants will also have to set a price. For the U.K., Rowlands says, this may include sending U.S. forces to the North Atlantic. Britain has reduced its naval presence in the Gulf and other more remote areas to focus – in part at Trump's behest – on taking greater responsibility for its own defence. Therefore, if the UK is to deploy resources in the Gulf again, it should ask the US to fill the gaps it leaves in its defense against Russia.
Another possible demand would be to accept the UK's plan to legitimize its presence in the Chagos archipelago, where the US base in Diego Garcia is located. Trump initially accepted the deal, but then turned against it, using it as a means to punish Starmer politically. And for all European participants, there should be a requirement for a specific commitment regarding Ukraine: A signed contract to supply Kyiv with Patriot interceptor missiles. This supply, which has always been a challenge, will be at risk after the rapid depletion of stocks in the Gulf.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said that any operation to escort the ships will probably have to wait until the US-Israeli military operation against Iran is completed. However, this moment may not be clear, and the pressure from Trump will be intense. This means taking risks, which should come with conditions and a price. Trump will understand it – he would do exactly the same.
Adaptation – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
