Filenews 7 February 2026
Major container shipping companies worldwide are bracing for a decline in profitability in 2026, as the growing likelihood of the Red Sea shipping route reopening puts downward pressure on freight rates and exacerbates existing oversupply problems in the industry.
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, Hapag-Lloyd AG, Nippon Yusen K.K., as well as China's Orient Overseas International Ltd. and Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., are expected to post lower earnings in 2026. The estimates come after an already challenging 2025, which was marked by turbulence in global trade due to tariffs.
The resumption of traffic through the Red Sea is expected to exacerbate the "structural oversupply problems" that characterize the market, according to Bank of America analysts. Global tonnage continues to grow at a record rate, with the total supply of new ships estimated to increase by 36% over the period 2023-2027, as noted by Bloomberg analyst Kenneth Law.
At the same time, demand for container transportation is forecast to fall by 1.1% in 2026, assuming shipping will fully return to the Red Sea route, he adds.
Global freight prices are already on the decline. The Drewry World Container Index recorded a 4.7% decline to $2,107 per 40-foot container in the week ending Jan. 29.
Although the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea is not yet considered a given, it is becoming increasingly likely, following the completion of two successful routes by Maersk — for the first time since Yemen's Houthis began attacking ships in 2023.
Analysts point out that a rapid resumption of traffic could initially cause congestion at European ports, offering temporary support to fares. At the same time, the need for Western economies to replenish stocks in the first half of 2026 may temporarily support prices, according to Citi estimates.
In the medium term, however, prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels. Maersk has already issued mild forecasts for 2026 profitability, while also reducing its share buyback program by 50%, according to Bank of America.
Major shipping companies are currently moving cautiously, avoiding extensive restructuring of their networks. As analysts at Drewry Shipping Consultants note, a sudden change in Houthi activity could turn the tables overnight.
Indicative of the instability is the stance of CMA CGM SA, which backtracked on its decision to use the Red Sea route, after the temporary resumption of three routes. "This shows how volatile and unpredictable the situation in the region remains," notes Law.
Asian companies face similar challenges. The full reopening of the Red Sea route is considered the key factor that will determine developments in Asian shipping in 2026, even more than tariffs, amid the US-China trade truce and the ongoing decoupling of the two economies, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
For Japanese companies such as Nippon Yusen, the pressure on the profitability of the container sector is expected to come mainly from oversupply and uncertainty around the trading environment, Jefferies analyst Carlos Furuya said in a note. Third-quarter operating income fell short of estimates, with Bloomberg predicting a further deterioration in activity due to lower freight rates and weaker demand.
Despite recent losses, Asian shipping companies may show greater resilience in profit margins compared to European ones, thanks to stronger regional demand and more resilient spot rates, according to analysts at Drewry.
As they point out, intra-Asian trade is more operationally stable, as it is less exposed to geopolitical turbulence, such as tariffs and security risks in the Red Sea, which continue to affect key global trade routes, such as transatlantic and Asia-European.
