Filenews 17 February 2026
By Paul Iddon
U.S. forces have completed their withdrawal from the strategic Al-Tanf military base in southern Syria, where for more than a decade they have helped local forces fight Islamic State (ISIS), as well as from another base in northeastern Syria. These are the latest steps in the US military's effort to concentrate its limited forces in Syria before its final complete withdrawal. The remaining US forces in Iraq are expected to complete their withdrawal by September.
Analysts are divided on whether this means that the complete withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Iraq will finally be completed this year.
"Open window"
"Syrian Arab Army forces have captured the Al-Shadadi military base after coordination with the US side," the Syrian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.
The announcement came after the U.S. Central Command was informed on Thursday that the "orderly withdrawal" from Al-Tanf had been completed the day before and that it was "part of a deliberate circumstantial action" by the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. In addition, CENTCOM announced the completion of the operation to transfer thousands of ISIS prisoners from Syria to Iraq. The mission began on January 21 and ended last Thursday: "Over 5,700 adult ISIS fighters" were safely transported during these 23 days.
The latter action was necessary due to internal instability in Syria, following the launch of a military offensive by the central government against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which was the main U.S. partner in Syria during the war against ISIS. Until the start of the government offensive, the SDF guarded captured ISIS fighters and their families in various detention centers and camps across northeastern Syria. The US has said that the "original purpose" of its cooperation with the SDF militias is now "largely completed" and has advocated for an agreement to integrate them into the new Syrian army.
"I think the withdrawal of the guard from Al-Tanf signals that the U.S. sees the agreement to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army as an 'open window' that they can use to withdraw their military forces from Syria and Iraq, already scheduled for the end of 2026," commented Caroline Rose, director of the Crime-Conflict Nexus and Military Withdrawals portfolios at the New Lines Institute.
"The Trump administration, which has wanted to withdraw from the mission against ISIS since its first term in office in the fall of 2019, sees the possibility of stability through the SDF-Damascus agreement as a pretext for withdrawal, transferring its security responsibilities to the new Syrian army," she added.
At the Munich Security Conference on Friday, representatives of the Syrian government and the SDF met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and discussed recent developments.
"America's relationship with Syria continues to grow," Myles B. Caggins III, a non-permanent fellow at the New Lines Institute, a veteran U.S. Army colonel and former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Fight ISIS, told me.
"A few weeks ago, it was difficult to imagine a summit between Foreign Minister Rubio and the Syrian Foreign Minister, as well as the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, General Mazloum, and Ilham Ahmed, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference," he said.
"U.S.-Syria cooperation will continue to focus on security and counterterrorism, putting a new emphasis on economic growth and investment, especially in the oil and gas sector," he said.
"Dynamics of escalation in the region"
These critical developments in Syria come less than a month after Iraq announced that it had regained full control of the strategic Ain al-Asad air base in the western province of Anbar. This move follows the "complete withdrawal" of US troops from all military installations on Iraqi soil.
According to the transition timeline announced in September 2024, the US stated that it had a plan to complete its military mission in Iraq in two phases. The first, the withdrawal of all US forces of the alliance from Iraqi territory by September 2025, has now been completed. Under the second phase, US forces will operate from Iraq's Kurdistan Autonomous Region until September 2026.
"With the rapid withdrawal from northeastern Syria, the transfer of prisoners that is now being completed, and the build-up of US troops in northern Iraq, it is very likely that the Trump administration will try to 'overrun' this timeline and withdraw more quickly," Rose assessed.
"This situation will be exacerbated if Nouri al-Maliki takes over as prime minister in Iraq, given his history of sectarianism, which, according to Washington, could embolden Shiite militias that in the past have 'beaten' US forces causing their gradual withdrawal."
Donald Trump warned in January that the United States would stop supporting Iraq if Al-Maliki ran for a third term as prime minister. During Al-Maliki's second term, the Islamic State captured large parts of northern Iraq, including the city of Mosul. The Trump administration is skeptical about Maliki's relations with the regime in Tehran.
Caggins, for his part, does not believe that US forces will withdraw from Iraqi Kurdistan before September 2026 or even beyond.
"In Iraq, the US announces the 'end of hostilities', the 'troop reduction' and the 'end of the alliance' almost every year, mainly for political purposes," he said. "As the U.S. transitions to a bilateral security relationship with Iraq, it is likely that the presence of U.S. troops will continue beyond 2026, albeit by providing advice and technological support to Iraqi security forces."
Lawk Ghafuri, an Iraqi political analyst, expects that the "dynamics of escalation in the region" will determine the length of time U.S. troops stay in Iraq, not who will be the country's next prime minister.
"The American presence in Iraq is directly linked to the broader confrontation between the US and Iran," Ghafuri said. "If tensions escalate, US bases will be exposed to threats from Iranian ballistic missiles and attacks by militias. If a new agreement with Iran is reached, tensions will be reduced and risks will be reduced. If diplomacy fails, escalation will be the normal outcome, and Iranian-backed militias will likely resume attacks against U.S. forces."
The analyst on Iraq also warned that a possible US withdrawal from Iraq would not "happen in a vacuum" and could have "immediate and structural" consequences.
"Syria today is being ravaged by jihadist networks, including foreign fighters who fought alongside Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham against the Assad regime," Ghafuri said.
HTS was the armed Islamist opposition group led by current Syrian President Ahmed al-Saraah during the civil war with former President Bashar al-Assad's forces. It was officially dissolved after al-Saraa's overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the latter's assumption of the presidency.
"There is no comprehensive demilitarization framework, no reintegration mechanism and no credible long-term plan for the management of foreign fighters," Ghafuri said. "Many remain ideologically committed to jihadism. Their presence is a ticking time bomb for security."
Therefore, if Damascus tries to "disarm, marginalize or split these factions", the risk of the problem spreading could become much more acute, seriously jeopardizing Iraq's security.
"Geography matters," Ghafuri added. "Iraq's western border is vast and historically difficult to control. Sunni populated areas bordering Syria provide both the terrain and the social depth that networks of militants seeking relocation or space for their armed activity could exploit."
"In such a scenario, Iraq would not be isolated – it would be the most immediate relief valve," Ghafuri stressed.
"Geopolitical readjustment"
Rose from the New Lines Institute predicts that the escalation of tension between the US and Iran could affect the timing of the otherwise inevitable US withdrawal.
"I think the confrontation with Iran has thwarted U.S. plans for a quick withdrawal from the Middle East," he noted. "The weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon as a collateral effect of Israeli attacks and relative stability in Syria as a result of the fall of Assad were seen as a good opportunity for the U.S. to begin reducing its military presence, as deterring Iranian-backed forces was no longer considered necessary."
"However, tensions with Iran and the Trump administration's imperative to increase its pressure through warship deployments, personnel reinforcements, and threats of attacks are delaying—if not reversing—this strategy."
In the long term, Ghafuri expects the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq to "structurally weaken" Baghdad.
"It will limit Baghdad's strategic balance vis-à-vis Tehran, while at the same time increasing the vulnerability of Iraq to developments that will take place in Syria and will concern security," he added. "Iraq will find itself squeezed between Iran's influence and the moods of the jihadists – with reduced deterrence and less outside help to manage either."
"In this equation, withdrawal is not just a military decision," Ghafuri said. "It's a geopolitical readjustment — a readjustment that could leave Iraq strategically exposed."
