in-cyprus 22 February 2026
A diplomatic impasse and the largest United States military build-up in the Middle East since 2003 are fuelling fears of war, according to analysts and diplomatic sources.
Reuters reports that Tehran is making “dangerous miscalculations” by insisting on concessions, while Donald Trump has locked himself into a vast military mobilisation he cannot reverse unless Iran abandons its nuclear weapons ambitions. The agency published images showing US military aircraft crowding an airport in the Azores.
Trump's post
NEW: 
Something big could be happening in Iran soon…
The United States has completed both basic and full deployment for potential operations, indicating that action could occur at any time.
“Over 100 mid-air refuelling planes in the Middle East or Europe— Double the amount used for the June strike.”
In his latest post, the US president said more than 100 refuelling aircraft are airborne over the Middle East or Europe — double the number used in the June strike on Iran.
Mr Trump, who has spoken of a formidable armada led by two aircraft carriers, warned Tehran on Thursday that it must strike a deal on its nuclear programme or face “very bad things”. He later referred to the possibility of a “limited-scale attack”.
However, a US official said full deployment of American forces would not be completed until mid-March.
Following talks in Geneva on Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the sides had agreed on “guiding principles”. The White House, however, said significant gaps remain.
Iran is expected to submit a written proposal in the coming days, a US official said, with uranium enrichment and the lifting of Western sanctions remaining red lines.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 28 February to discuss Iran.
BBC: Seven Possible War Scenarios
According to the BBC, one optimistic scenario would see US air and naval forces launch strikes targeting bases of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia, a paramilitary force under IRGC control.
The least likely scenario, dubbed the “Venezuela model”, envisages swift and forceful US action that leaves the regime intact.
Another scenario foresees the collapse of Iran’s regime and its replacement by military rule — described by some as the most plausible outcome.
A further, highly likely scenario involves Iran retaliating against US forces, Arab neighbours and Israel. Tehran has already declared it has its “finger on the trigger”, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed to “slap” US forces if attacked.
Iran could also respond by laying mines in the Persian Gulf, posing a renewed threat to global shipping and oil supplies. During the 1980–88 Iran–Iraq war, Iran mined key maritime routes. Royal Navy minesweepers helped clear the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.
Another possibility sees Iran retaliating by sinking a US warship. A US Navy spokesperson said one of the gravest concerns is a potential “swarm attack”, involving so many drones that they could not be neutralised in time.
A final scenario envisions the collapse of Iran’s regime descending into chaos — a key concern for neighbours such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Beyond the risk of civil war, similar to conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya, there are fears that ethnic tensions involving Kurds, Baloch and Azerbaijanis could escalate into armed confrontation.
Fresh University Protests
Students at several Iranian universities have staged the first large-scale demonstrations since last month’s deadly crackdown, coinciding with the start of the new academic term.
The BBC has verified footage of protesters marching on the campus of Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, as well as reports of a rally in the north-east.
Crowds chanted “death to the dictator” — a reference to Ayatollah Khamenei — while supporters of the regime were seen nearby before clashes broke out.
Verified images have also emerged showing a peaceful sit-in at Shahid Beheshti University in the capital, at Amir Kabir University of Technology, and in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city in the north-east.
Further information:
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier was sighted on Friday (February 20), sailing in waters off Gibraltar near northern Africa
Reuters confirmed the identity of the vessel from ship design which matched file imagery of the USS Gerald R. Ford. Reuters confirmed the location of the videos from the shape of the mountains and road layout which matched satellite imagery of the area. The date when the videos were taken was confirmed through the metadata of the original files.
The sighting of the aircraft carrier comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a huge buildup of forces in the Middle East and preparations for a potential multi-week air attack on Iran. But he has not laid out in detail to the American public why he might be leading the U.S. into its most aggressive action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday (February 21) that his country would not bow its head to pressure from world powers amid nuclear talks with the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday he expected to have a draft counterproposal ready within days, following the talks.
Trump’s fixation on Iran has emerged as the starkest example yet of how foreign policy, including his expanded use of raw military force, has topped his agenda in the first 13 months of his second term, often overshadowing domestic issues like the cost of living that public opinion polls show are much higher priorities for most Americans.
