Filenews 12 January 2026
By Daniel Markind
2026 begins with the Tehran regime facing the most serious internal crisis it has ever managed. A simple strike of merchants in the Tehran market very quickly turned into a popular uprising. Of course, Iran's leaders have faced mass protests in the past, but this one seems to be different. On the one hand, the government almost immediately proposed negotiations to the protesters, which it was not always willing to do. On the other hand, the -almost complete- collapse of the Iranian economy, with the exchange rate of the rial against the dollar at 1,420,000 rials/dollar and inflation running at 42%, has made everyday life in Iran unbearable. If you take into account that in addition to the phenomena of corruption and mismanagement, due to the drought that plagues the country, Tehran is depleting drinking water supplies, the average Iranian citizen has nothing to lose by protesting against the regime or even if he tries to overthrow it.
For 47 years of the Islamic Republic, outside observers have been making analyses of what the impact would be if the regime fell. This time the assessments take on an urgent character. In the event that the regime finally falls, whatever the new government is, it should first seek to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the international community.
The lifting of sanctions would mean the return of Iranian oil to the world market. Surprisingly, despite international sanctions, Iranian oil exports reached the highest level in 7 years in 2025. However, perhaps as another sign of mismanagement in the Iranian economy, despite the increase in exports, the country's GDP shrank by 0.6% in 2025.
Despite the above analysis, free from international isolation, Iran could even regain its role as a regional economic power and global oil exporting power. Iran has - proven - oil reserves equal to 208-209 billion. barrels of oil, the third or fourth largest in the world, 12% of the world's total oil reserve. Even without Iran's oil supply, markets expect a huge oversupply of available crude in 2026, and therefore "black gold" prices are expected to decline. Adding Iranian oil supplies to the international mix can only exacerbate the current oversupply and exert even greater downward pressure on prices.
Internationally, this could have impressive geopolitical implications. Russia, which has continued to sell oil to European countries despite sanctions imposed on it due to its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, will see even smaller oil and gas revenues in 2026, a development that will put an even greater strain on its budget. In addition, Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which are now facing new pressures, such as the possibility of a war between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over a breakaway region in Yemen, may be forced to reduce their budgets to cope with the new realities, at a time of increased regional unrest.
Brent prices have already fallen by 19% since the beginning of 2025. For the United States, lower oil prices would be favourable to drivers and consumers, but may prove unfavourable for producers. Indeed, one element that could change this situation is to continue the severe winter in most of North America. This will not only increase oil demand in the United States, but it will also make it difficult to transport oil. This is especially true in the Northeastern states, where major cities - such as New York - face difficulties in transporting the oil and gas they need.
2026 begins with an oversupply in the oil market, coupled with intense uncertainty about future supply. In the energy sector, as in other sectors, the year 2026 brings instability everywhere. And this is a challenge that will be faced day by day.
