in-cyprus 2 January 2026
The planet enters 2026 having passed through a series of geopolitical, economic and political turning points, with uncertainty remaining the only constant factor.
In this environment, Politico attempts to map six probable global scenarios for the coming year, assigning specific odds to each—not as predictions of certainty, but as indicators of risk and momentum.
The common denominator? A world where politics is less predictable than ever, with Donald Trump back in the White House acting as an accelerator of developments.
Will Trump end the Ukraine war? (4/1 odds)
Despite expectations Donald Trump has cultivated that he can strike a deal with Russia, the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine within 2026 remains difficult. Vladimir Putin appears unmoved on his maximalist demands, whilst Volodymyr Zelenskyy has limited room for manoeuvre domestically.
Politico’s analysis emphasises that for the Russian president, prolonging the war may be strategically beneficial, as it exhausts Europe economically, tests Western cohesion and gives China time to weigh its own moves in Asia.
At the same time, an abrupt exit from the war economy could trigger internal upheaval in Russia.
On the other hand, Russia’s economy is pressured by high interest rates, labour shortages and rising public costs. Whether and to what extent these burdens will prove decisive within 2026 remains an open question.
Is 2026 the year bond markets say enough is enough? (5/1 odds)
One of the most worrying scenarios for 2026 concerns international bond markets. The public finances of many developed countries—from the US and Britain to France and Japan—are under mounting pressure, with high debt, low growth and political unwillingness to make painful fiscal decisions.
The precedent of Liz Truss’s brief tenure as British prime minister serves as a warning: markets can topple governments. Demand for government debt has begun to decline, whilst investors question the sustainability of major economies’ fiscal policies.
France appears as the “canary in the coal mine”, with the political system unable to support meaningful fiscal consolidation. If markets lose patience, financial and political crises could reinforce each other.
Netanyahu survives politically (3/1 odds)
Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly proved he possesses political survival reflexes—hence the characterisation “the Magician” attributed to him by allies and opponents alike. Despite the heavy shadow of Hamas’s deadly 7 October attack and his legal troubles, his position inside Israel has gradually improved.
Military pressure against Hezbollah and Iran’s weakening boosted Netanyahu’s profile, whilst accepting the Gaza ceasefire—with Trump’s push—allowed him to control internal reactions from his coalition’s far-right wing.
Although polls show no camp secures a comfortable majority, Politico estimates Netanyahu remains the favourite to emerge as the dominant player in 2026 as well.
Orbán’s reelection in Hungary (2/1 odds)
April’s electoral contest in Hungary is considered the toughest in 15 years for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Economic pressure, inflation and scandals have led to the opposition’s rise, with Péter Magyar emerging as a serious rival.
However, Orbán continues to wield strong media control and exploit confrontation with the EU and cultural division. With a large percentage of undecided voters, the scenario of his re-election remains slightly more likely than a political upset.
Shadow banking crisis erupts (3/1 odds)
The uncontrolled growth of the private credit market and so-called shadow banks has set off alarms amongst regulatory authorities.
With assets approaching $250 trillion, this sector comprises almost half the global financial system.
Whilst it’s not based on consumer deposits—something that reduces the risk of immediate panic—a serious disruption could spread quickly throughout the economy. Many funds’ exposure to artificial intelligence strengthens fears of a new bubble in 2026, Politico suggests.
Critical battle between Democrats and Republicans in US midterm elections
On the US domestic political front, the odds favour Democrats reclaiming the House of Representatives (2/1), following the historical pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the midterm elections of November 2026, Politico notes.
Conversely, Republicans appear stronger in the Senate, also with 2/1 odds to retain control.
To overturn this balance would require a strong anti-Trump current, even in deeply conservative states—a scenario not considered likely, though not impossible.
Politico’s six scenarios sketch a fragile world, where political personalities, markets and geopolitical balances interact unpredictably.
The year 2026 doesn’t promise to be one of stability, but rather a year during which small shifts may trigger disproportionate consequences, and the odds, however carefully calculated, remain merely indicators within a high-risk environment.
(information from Politico)
