The European Union is proceeding with a definitive halt to Russian gas imports, closing a cycle of long-term dependence on Moscow and ushering in a new era in European energy policy. The political deal between the Commission, the Council and the European Parliament sets an irrevocable timetable: stopping LNG imports from December 31, 2026 and terminating pipeline gas from September 30, 2027, with only limited exceptions for states that may not meet storage targets.
The decision marks a turning point for the European energy architecture. Ending dependence on Russia is affecting prices, supplies and new balances of power, at a time when the war in Ukraine remains at a critical juncture.
A decade of dependency is coming to an end for good
From 45% of gas imports in 2021, the EU fell to 13% in 2025, but another 35 billion euros were still being exported. cubic meters reached the European market last year, worth about 10 billion euros. With the new legislation, this relationship is interrupted "with a knife":
– All short-term contracts cease by 2026
– Long-term contracts for LNG expire in 2027
– Pipeline gas is strictly prohibited from September 2027
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it bluntly:
"Today we are entering the era of Europe's complete energy independence from Russia."
For the first time, the EU is introducing a permanent ban, not rolling sanctions. Countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and Austria will not be able to invoke force majeure from 2027, while in Brussels the logic of a "clean divorce" prevailed.
Impact on prices and markets
The key question is whether the decision will cause prices to rise. The answer depends on three critical parameters:
1. Availability of LNG internationally
From 2025, a global wave of new LNG infrastructure begins, with an additional 200 bcm of production by 2028 — five times the amount of current Russian flows to Europe.
2. Reducing European demand
REPowerEU envisages a removal of 100 bcm by 2030, of which 40–50 bcm will have been reduced already in 2027.
3. Competition with Asia
China remains the big unknown: increased demand will push Europe to offer higher prices to secure LNG flows.
Therefore, the EU can proceed with the "stop" without a price shock, provided that the LNG markets develop as intended.
The new balances of power in the energy map
The ban is reshaping the European energy landscape:
– Russia loses its largest market for good. From €12 billion a month before the war, it now collects €1.5 billion, with the EU's goal of reducing it to zero.
– Central European countries must redesign their procurement systems in a suffocating time frame.
– Companies with Gazprom contracts face penalties of up to 3.5% of turnover.
– LNG suppliers (USA, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria) acquire a more stable European field of activity.
– Countries with new LNG infrastructure, such as Greece, are strengthening their position as gateways.
– The EU is getting a single traceability system and a strengthened control mechanism.
The legislation includes:
• Prohibition of contract modifications that increase volumes or prices
• Strict traceability for each gas molecule
• Obligation to submit national rehabilitation plans by 1/3/2026
• Temporary exemptions of up to 4 weeks for countries with storage problems, subject to institutional approval
The new framework is radically different from sanctions: it is a standard legislation, which cannot be renewed, nor can it be blocked by veto.
