Filenews 29 December 2025
By the Bloomberg editorial team
Does the European Union – a bloc of 27 states, 450 million people, politically divided even in its best days – need to be enlarged further? The answer - as is customary in Brussels - is a cautious and dubious "yes".
Nine countries have formally applied to join the Union, while EU officials have recently indicated that by 2030 more states may be added to the list. The European Commission's latest progress report reveals the gap between ambition and preparedness. Tiny Montenegro has quietly carried out much of the hard work required for membership, while Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are far behind. Other countries are unlikely to join anytime soon.
If done correctly, enlargement can strengthen Europe's security and credibility as a democratic bloc. It could prove particularly useful right now, as Russia's aggression, America's inward shift, and China's expanding influence have made regional integration a strategic necessity. The possible alternative is a union surrounded by fragile states that can easily be blackmailed and whose instability could spread beyond Europe's borders.
And from an economic point of view, the logic of expansion is correct. The previous series of EU accession in 2004 increased the per capita gross domestic product of new members from 59% of the EU average to 81% by 2022. Living standards have increased significantly, along with huge improvements in infrastructure, services and life expectancy. Older members gained a larger market, better flow in supply chains, greater regional stability and, therefore, greater prosperity: per capita income is estimated to be 10% higher than it would have been without the inclusion of new members.
However, these benefits are not self-evident and any further enlargement must be treated with caution. Adding small countries like Montenegro and Albania is a low-cost – high-yield option. It will strengthen a vulnerable region, improve border and migration management, and reward real reform efforts. The benefits that such additions would bring to the EU are likely to significantly outweigh the risks.
Ukraine's request, on the other hand, requires delicate moves. Its size, industrial capability, and military resilience could one day make it a strategic asset. However, the ongoing war, the enormous reconstruction needs, governance problems and political sensitivities complicate the situation. Here, the EU needs a more flexible approach that prioritises deepening ties under existing agreements on issues such as trade, energy and customs and regulatory harmonisation, while laying the foundations for full membership in the future.
Two more principles should guide the enlargement process.
The first is that the EU should be careful about how it influences candidate Member States. For a long time, it has insisted on judicial independence, transparency, the rule of law and other criteria of good governance as preconditions for membership. However, leaving the candidate countries on an endless waiting basis undermines the credibility of the Union and may leave the possibility of influence to external powers. The EU needs to offer better incentives for progress – such as faster market access and deeper participation in EU programmes – while imposing clear sanctions in the event of backtracking.
Then, the EU must reform itself if it wants to remain "governable". It should allow for more important decisions (in foreign policy, sanctions and other areas) to be taken by qualified majority, rather than requiring unanimity among members. It must also strengthen the Single Market: the elimination of friction in cross-border capital markets, banking, energy and other sectors should be accompanied by reforms to cut red tape. This is not just about enlargement: without these changes, even the current Union will find it difficult to remain functional.
The founding purpose of Europe was to unite nations for peace, prosperity and democracy. The EU can contribute to the renewal of this mission by realistically embracing more countries on its periphery. It can also, by the way. to save herself.
