Filenews 16 November 2025 - by Theano Thiopoulou
The world has entered the last quarter of 2025, national economies are in a complex mix of recovery, economic pressures, changes in the energy market and geopolitical uncertainty. Newspaper headlines and financial websites often focus on nominal GDP, but these figures can be misleading, as inflation and price changes can distort the true value of economic output. Real GDP, which is adjusted for these factors, provides a clearer picture of which economies are really growing and which are struggling. This is reported, among other things, by the analysis of the Bestbrokers website, entitled "Real GDP by Country in 2025".
Over the past decade, it is noted, a number of measures have highlighted the countries that have successfully adapted to global crises, as well as those that have been left behind, making them particularly important today as policymakers and investors consider future strategies. To shed light on these dynamics, the Bestbrokers team used International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from 2016 to 2025 (data for 2025 are estimates), covering 135 countries, and calculated real GDP, using the most recent Gross Domestic Product data and so-called deflation indicators.
Not surprisingly, the analysis says, global economic performance is proving to be significant: Small nations such as Liechtenstein and Malta lead the way in "real" per capita wealth, while large economies such as the United States, China and India continue to grow strongly, albeit with an uneven internal distribution. Extreme inflation and exchange rate fluctuations caused sharp declines in real GDP in Turkey and Argentina, while nations like Ghana and Ireland experienced rapid growth.
"A decade of changes in real GDP can reveal the long-term adaptability of an economy, highlighting both its resilience and how fragile it can be. Continuous increases in the GDP ratio indicate improved productivity, job creation, higher living standards for the population, and overall economic growth. Negative rates, on the other hand, indicate economic contraction and the broader negative impact on the country," the analysis says.
Dynamic growth in Cyprus
According to the data, GDP in Cyprus between 2016 and 2025 increased by 53.61% and is among the economies showing dynamics. In addition to this analysis, if we take into account the data recorded in the 2026 budget, the Gross Domestic Product (at current prices in 2023 is €31.34 billion, increases to €33.56 billion in 2024 and the forecast is for €34.83 billion in 2025). If we move forward in the next three years, we will see an even greater increase in GDP. The forecast in 2026, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, is €36.80 billion, in 2027 it is estimated at €38.61 billion and €40.50 billion in 2028. That is, from 2023, the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced will increase by 29.22%.
For countries in the Balkans, Albania experienced a wave of optimism, recording growth of 88.5%, as hopes of EU membership and major infrastructure projects fuelled expansion. However, not all states had growth stories. Turkey's GDP plunged 88.4% due to the economy being hit by political unrest, while Argentina's economy almost collapsed, shrinking GDP by 98.8% under the weight of hyperinflation.
The situation in India
The analysis highlights that India, often seen as a growth champion, presents a different story when inflation prices are removed. Real GDP is falling to $2.3 trillion, almost half of its face value, revealing how rising prices and the weaker rupee (the country's currency) have inflated its value on paper.
Saudi Arabia, by contrast, offers rare stability: stable oil exports, moderate inflation and prudent fiscal policy have allowed its real output to slightly exceed nominal GDP, a sign of real resilience.
According to the analysis data, Russia's wartime economy is moving in the opposite direction, whose real GDP is falling to $1.7 trillion as sanctions and rising prices erode any nominal profits. Across Africa, Nigeria's real GDP is about half of its nominal value, while Ghana's is at about one-seventh and Ethiopia's at about one-fifth of their respective nominal figures.
United States, China, Germany
With a real GDP of approximately $23.8 trillion, the United States remains the world's largest economy, although its momentum is overshadowed by political stalemate and rising price pressures. "The federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, has left hundreds of thousands of federal employees unemployed and shaken market confidence, while inflation expectations have risen. A plethora of federal employees remain unpaid, potentially curbing consumer spending and weighing on economic growth, while the suspension of government programs and discretionary spending further limits fiscal support at a time when market confidence is already fragile," the report said.
On the other side of the Pacific, it is noted, China, with a real GDP of about $16.8 trillion, faces the opposite challenge: persistent deflation and weak consumer sentiment, despite new stimulus measures to stabilize the real estate market and revive exports.
In Europe, Germany, with $4.1 trillion in GDP, is struggling with structural stagnation, a modest recovery in industrial production and a decline in energy costs. These suggest cautious optimism. Each of these economies is growing in real terms, yet domestic vulnerabilities reveal how fragile growth remains post-pandemic.
Increasingly uneven growth
The global economy, the analysis suggests, is entering a phase of increasingly uneven growth, with advanced economies such as the US maintaining moderate resilience through strong consumer spending, investments in Artificial Intelligence and green technologies.
Parts of Europe and East Asia are experiencing stagnation in growth due to low demand, an aging population and an industrial slowdown. At the same time, it notes that "emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa are poised for faster growth, fuelled by demographics, infrastructure investment and digital transformation, suggesting that in the future we will see slower overall growth, but a gradual shift in global economic influence towards newer, faster growing regions."
