Bloomberg and Reuters reveal that, behind the secret diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, a parallel debate with a strong business footprint is evolving. According to the information, the draft peace agreement includes "sweeteners" of economic cooperation that could renew US-Russian business relations.
Economic incentives in the peace plan
The proposals, formulated mainly by Russian investment fund chief Kirill Dmitriev and US envoy Steve Whitkov, envisage a long-term economic cooperation agreement for energy, rare earths and data centers. The plan also proposes the creation of a US-Russian investment fund, with the aim of acting as a disincentive for future conflicts.
Analysts say such elements in the plan are aimed at attracting the interest of President Donald Trump, who has previously linked foreign policy to business opportunities.
Business diplomacy approaches
History repeats itself, as Trump often links his peace initiatives to investment visions: from the "Middle Eastern Riviera" in Gaza to the "wonderful beaches" of North Korea that he described as investment assets.
The former head of the CIA for Central Eurasia, Rob Danenberg, believes that the Kremlin is trying to exploit this well-known dimension of Trump's presidential personality. "Putin is only interested in such agreements to the extent that he is interested in Trump," he notes.
Reactions and objections to the content of the plan
The financial part of the draft is already causing objections, particularly with regard to the proposal to use frozen Russian assets to finance the investment fund. European countries and Washington counter that these funds should be allocated to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The US side, citing statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, describes the draft as a "living and evolving document", avoiding further details.
The background and obstacles
Despite the new business narrative, the chances of a major thaw in US-Russia relations remain limited:
- Bilateral trade is at an all-time low ($4.4 billion in 2024).
- There is an accumulated decade of sanctions, which makes it difficult for Western companies to return to Russia.
- Congress has a decisive role and will hardly decide to relax the framework.
- Moscow has shown that it does not intend to uncritically welcome the return of Western companies.
At the same time, analysts compare the business side to the US-Iran nuclear deal in 2015, which failed to attract massive investment.
Potential Opportunities and Russian Aspirations
Despite the obstacles, Russia seems to be interested in including in the discussion areas such as:
- Arctic and energy resources
- Artificial intelligence
- Aeronautics, with Moscow having even approached Boeing for a possible return to the market
Analyst Thomas Graham emphasizes that these areas are critical to long-term Russian development and directly linked to American know-how.
No change in Russian positions on the war
So far, there are no indications that the prospect of business cooperation has altered Russian demands for an end to the war. However, Trump leaves open the possibility of economic trade-offs: "I think Putin wants to trade with us and make a lot of money for Russia — and I like that," he told CBS.
