in-cyprus 19 October 2025 - by Costas Venizelos
Occupying Turkey is spreading its tentacles everywhere, causing concern even among those who encourage it and utilise its “geopolitical footprint.” It is clear that Turkey’s attempt to present itself as a key geopolitical player in the wider region, to assume the role of a “guarantor” of peace and stability, is being closely monitored by various states concerned about Ankara’s expansionism.
Turkey has occupation troops in Cyprus, maintains forces in Syria, in Libya (as well as in other areas), and is now called upon to play a role in Gaza. With everything we are observing, it is evident that the Erdoğan regime, which has a strategic plan for controlling the region, is attempting to legalise this policy.
It is clear that by legitimising Turkish practices and ambitions, Turkey will acquire a significant advantage in relation to the region. It is noted that in the case of Gaza, due to its relations with Hamas, the Americans made Ankara part of the agreement. While Hamas may have had no choice but to accept the Trump proposal, what became apparent was that it was Erdoğan who convinced the Organisation to agree.
It is clear that the Turkish President wants to have a presence in Gaza, both as a guarantor (gaining a foothold in the area) and, at the same time, is seeking to secure construction contracts as part of the reconstruction effort. Ankara is investing in its participation in the reconstruction because there is a lot of money involved, however, many other countries are claiming this role, especially those that will cover the financing costs of the projects.
‘Guarantor’ – ‘Peacemaker’
Systematically and methodically, Ankara seeks to acquire a guarantor role in international problems. It pursued this in Ukraine and had secured Kyiv’s acceptance for this purpose. It was clear from the beginning that occupying Turkey wanted involvement in the Ukrainian issue: to be present by mediating, but primarily to have a role the day after the end of the war and the achievement of an agreement. It put forward the fact that it had good relations with both Russia and Ukraine and offered to mediate. It hosted meetings and was exempt from implementing sanctions imposed on Russia.
Ankara convinced the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to request Turkey’s participation in the guarantee system, and this happened.
Occupying Turkey found itself strengthening its geopolitical footprint in the region from the moment it was—seemingly at the last minute—included among the so-called “guarantor” countries for Gaza. The US, Egypt, and Qatar were the initial players; Turkey was added later. This is undoubtedly a success for the occupying side. However, Erdoğan’s impatience and clumsy moves to showcase his… hegemony are causing murmurs and reactions. Countries in the wider region are reportedly concerned about Ankara’s ambitions, as they know they are limitlessly expansionist.
They invoke Cyprus
In Turkey, analysts believe that the most effective formula for the protection of Gaza is a binding system of guarantees with military, political, and economic dimensions. In the analyses coming to light in Turkey, the “Cyprus model” is invoked—that is, the model of Turkish guarantees. They cite the case of Cyprus to prove (!) that the “guarantees” are effective, as “there have been no conflicts for over five decades.” They note that the example of Cyprus, where Turkey served as a… guarantor in the past, “could serve as a model for Gaza.” They claim that the system of guarantors established under the 1959 Zurich and London Agreements provided “a critical protective shield for the security of the Turkish Cypriots.” As they explain, a similar role in Gaza seems “compatible with Turkey’s historical and diplomatic capacity.”
In Turkey, in the case of Gaza, they avoid any mention of a possible military intervention. And they are limiting themselves, at this stage, to supporting political governance, training local security units, technical support for coastal surveillance, and transparent humanitarian aid procedures.
Nicosia’s reaction
It is clear that Turkey’s upgraded role, and especially that of a guarantor power, worries Nicosia. Firstly, because Ankara is omnipresent, and various third parties are investing in the occupying power and may support its claims. Secondly, Turkey’s presence as a guarantor offers it an alibi and creates a precedent. It will be able to claim that if the international community calls on it to guarantee the implementation of international agreements, why should this not apply to Cyprus in the event of a solution.
In light of all this, the Republic of Cyprus has undertaken efforts at the political and diplomatic level to inform third parties with the aim of limiting Turkey’s expansionism and its role. This is not only because it works against Cyprus and Greece but also against the countries of the region. Because, as noted, at some point, all of them will face Ankara’s upgraded role, and it will be uncontrolled by then.
However, it is puzzling why Israel has not yet reacted to Turkey’s presence. This may be due to the fact that Trump wants his… friend Erdoğan.
The potential of the Cyprus proposal for Gaza
Cyprus’s proposal for Gaza will be discussed in Brussels this week ahead of the European Council meeting. President Christodoulides will brief our partners, having already done so with those present at the summit in Egypt. The Cypriot proposal, which the President presented at the Sharm El Sheikh summit, will take a more comprehensive form based on the discussions Nicosia will have with the stakeholders. Already, EU institutions have expressed the view that the proposal could become a European one. It is noted that the President of the Republic has also briefed, among others, the former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, who, according to American plans, seems set to have a role in the day after in Gaza.
It is clear that there are many possibilities for the Republic of Cyprus to be present. Obviously, Cypriot companies will not undertake the reconstruction of Gaza. After all, the states that will fund the projects will have the first say in the selection of companies. However, there is potential for participation on the ground, as well as by utilising Cyprus’s ports and infrastructure. Among other things, a hospital could be built, and a state in the wider region has already raised this with the Cypriot side for cooperation. At the same time, materials and products sent through Cyprus to Gaza could be inspected.
It is recalled that Cypriot companies were utilised in the humanitarian aid transfer plan with the “Amalthea” initiative. Consequently, Cyprus can play a role as a transit hub. Or, for example, the rubble from Gaza could be transported to the island, and a processing centre could be set up with EU support.
Summit with Egypt, others to follow
It is noted that this week, before the European Council meeting, the European Union-Egypt Summit will take place. This summit is being convened following efforts by Nicosia. The goal is to achieve a strategic agreement between the European Union and Egypt. During the meeting, the Cyprus proposal for Gaza will also be discussed.
The President of the Republic, who is promoting EU meetings with Lebanon and Jordan, similar to the one with Egypt that will take place in Brussels, wants the Republic of Cyprus to have a role as a bridge between the European Union and the countries of the region. This is of interest to both the states in our geographical neighbourhood and our EU partners. Therefore, this is a plan that Nicosia wants to implement gradually.
It is clear that Nicosia wants to utilise its European Presidency term in the first half of 2026 to further develop relations between the region and the EU.
