Filenews 9 October 2025
By Mark Temnycky
On Monday, a leaked document from the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed the Russian Federation's losses in Ukraine in 2025. The report gave detailed data on the deaths and injuries of Russians per unit operating in Ukraine.
The information, published by a non-governmental organization in Ukraine that helps members of the Russian armed forces safely surrender to Ukraine, revealed that the Russians have suffered over 280.000 casualties since January. According to an independent estimate by Meduza and the BBC Russian Service, the Russians have suffered about 219.000 casualties since the beginning of the year.
For about four years now, the Russian Federation has lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment and hardware in the war in Ukraine. 2/3 of the Russian tanks that existed before the invasion have been destroyed, while the Ukrainians have sunk or destroyed about 50% of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. It is estimated that Russia has lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to Western sanctions imposed on it.
Beyond these material and economic losses, the Russian invasion has significantly affected Russian soldiers. According to the "Guardian", the Russian Federation has over 1 million. losses (dead and wounded) since February 2022. (The British Ministry of Defense, the US State Department, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies have verified these figures.) According to the "Guardian" "Russian casualties are five times more than the total number of casualties in all Soviet and Russian wars since the end of World War II."
What is the impact on the Russian army? How has the invasion of Ukraine affected the demographics in the Russian Federation?
Losses of Russian soldiers and the Russian market after the invasion
During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers were called up to fight: from young adults and inexperienced soldiers to veterans and senior officers.
In addition, the Russian government has proceeded with the mobilization of Russian citizens. More than a million Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed, while significant losses are also recorded in the ranks of officers.
According to a study by Mediazona, in collaboration with Meduza and the BBC Russian Service, about 6,000 Russian officers have been killed in the war. Among them were 12 generals. According to the same study, those who have been most affected by the war are Russian men aged 30-39.
"The biggest victims on the Russian side are men in this age group," Andrew D'Anieri, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, told me in an interview. "These are men who would soon enter the age of earning the most money. Instead, volunteer soldiers, known as kontrakniki, opted for the large rewards offered by the government to fight and die in Ukraine."
Since the start of the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree offering Russian recruits a $4.970 registration bonus. Some recruits received additional bonuses in regions that had difficulty meeting recruitment quotas, such as Irkutsk, Omsk, Krasnoyarsk and Kemerovo. Bonuses have been used by the Russian government as a key incentive to recruit new volunteers.
In addition, Moscow has encouraged Russian men to join the military, offering them a monthly salary of $2,500. Joining the Russian armed forces "guarantees" work for young men. Finally, the families of the Russian soldiers killed receive a one-time compensation of $158,000.
Although joining the Russian army comes with many risks, the incentives provided by the Russian government have increased recruits, which shows that the tactic is paying off. Mainly because Russia is being tested by high inflation and economic uncertainty. The monthly salary in Russia averages $1,273. Russian soldiers at the front are paid twice the salary.
"But the effects will be a chain link," D'Anieri pointed out to me. "The Russian economy will have a less skilled and semi-skilled workforce to produce. In the long run, this treaty will put pressure on the Russian economy. And as long as the war continues, these problems will continue."
Some signs are already evident. According to a report published by Forbes in August, Russia is facing a shortage of labour in the private sector. And because of this, Russian industries are operating at 81% of their production capacity. Despite this, the Russian invasion continues.
The war in Ukraine and Russian migration
The demographic situation in Russia has also been affected by immigration. When Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, some Russians who were against the war decided to leave the country. They relocated to countries with large Russian and Russian-speaking populations, such as Georgia and Kazakhstan. Others chose more distant refuges: in states of the EU, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
As the war continues, the number of Russians choosing to leave the country is increasing. The phenomenon was most pronounced in September 2022 when the Russian government announced a partial mobilization of Russian citizens. Stanford University estimates that about a million Russians have emigrated since the start of the war. The Stanford report pointed out that these Russian immigrants were mostly young adults with a high level of education. It is believed that most of them belonged to Russia's middle class and workforce. This explains why there is a shortage of labor today in Russia.
"Putin's war against Ukraine is damaging Russia's future, with the needless deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers at the front and the emigration of some of the country's best and brightest minds," commented Dr. Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute at Syracuse University. "History will judge how he exercised his power."
Russian wartime demographics
In addition, the Russian population is declining as birth rates decline. According to a Carnegie Endowment report published in September, Russia is seeing birth rates decline, while the male mortality rate is increasing. Citizens over the age of 65 make up more than 18% of Russia's total population, a record performance for the country.
In short, Russia's aging population is growing at the expense of the younger generations. If this continues, as the Carnegie Endowment report notes, "it is very likely that the Russian social security system will collapse."
According to the same report, less than 1% of Russian GDP has been allocated to support households during the war. In, the Russian Federation has increased its defense spending. In 2025 alone, Russia spent 7.2% of its GDP on defense.
The "knife" in state funds to support Russian households, combined with the intensifying economic problems, discourages Russians from starting a family. And this factor is squeezing the population of Russia.
Thus, Russia faces a serious demographic problem. According to the 2021 census, its population amounted to 147 million. Since then, it has declined due to the death toll in the war, migration, but also domestic problems related to demographics. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the population of the Russian Federation has fallen to 144 million.
The UN predicts that this trend of population decline will continue. According to the Organization's estimates, if demographic issues, such as low fertility and birth rates, are not addressed, then in the worst-case scenario Russia's population could decline from 144 million. in 2025 to 57 million. by 2100. That is, Russia would lose more than 50% of its population within 75 years.
The Russian Federation is facing a serious demographic crisis. It remains to be seen how Moscow will deal with these issues and what mechanisms will be put in place to reverse the population decline.
