A good year for tax revenues is guaranteed by the course of receipts so far, with the result that the surplus in the period January-August 2025 amounts to €1.4 billion, which corresponds to 4% of GDP, according to the preliminary results published by the Statistical Service.
Last year the surplus stood at €1.3 billion, also at 4% of GDP.
The fiscal balance is expected to be positive in 2025 and will reach 3.7% of GDP from 4.3% of GDP in 2024 and in 2026 it is estimated at 3.6% of GDP.
The primary surplus is expected at 5% in 2025 and 4.9% of GDP (the primary surplus is the result of a state's revenues (taxes, contributions, etc.) minus its expenditures, excluding interest paid on public debt).
If we look in detail at the data announced by the Statistical Service, total revenues during the period January-August 2025 increased by €641.1 million (+6.8%) and amounted to €10,102.3 million compared to €9,461.2 mil in the corresponding period of 2024. Total expenses increased by €574.3 million (+7.1%) and amounted to €8,706.6 million compared to €8,132.3 mil in the corresponding period of 2024.
By category, income and wealth tax revenues increased by €178.3 million or 7.1%, reaching €2,696 million compared to €2,517.7 million in 2024. Social contributions amounted to €3,136.5 million, showing an increase of €243.8 million or 8.4% compared to €2,892.7 mil in the previous year.
Interest and dividends received increased by €57.4 million, amounting to €121.8 million compared to €64.4 mil in 2024. Total taxes on production and imports increased by €41.0 million. or 1.3%, reaching €3,148.2 mil compared to €3,107.2 mil in the previous year.
Net VAT revenue (after deduction of refunds) amounted to €2,117.8 million. recording an increase of €47.7 million or 2.3% compared to €2,070.1 mil in 2024. Revenues from the provision of services amounted to €651.6 million, showing an increase of €97.8 million or 17.7% compared to €553.8 mil last year. Capital transfers also increased by €45.8 million or 65.7%, reaching €115.5 million from €69.7 mil in 2024.
In relation to expenses, staff compensation, which includes imputed social contributions and pensions of civil servants, amounted to €2,544.0 million showing an increase of €149.3 mil or 6.2% compared to €2,394.7 mil of the previous year. Social benefits increased by €231.1 million. or 6.8%, reaching €3,622.8 million compared to €3,391.7 mil in 2024. Intermediate consumption increased by €84.6 million or 10.1%, amounting to €920.1 mil from €835.5 mil in the previous year.
Good prospects for '26 as well
The positive trend of revenues has also been carried over to the 2026 budget, where revenues from direct taxation are projected to amount to €4.05 billion showing an increase of 1.4% compared to €4 billion in 2025. This category includes personal income tax, corporate income tax, property taxes, and various contributions. Personal income tax is estimated to bring in approximately €1.55 billion, while corporate tax is expected to reach €2.1 billion. On the other hand, indirect taxes are estimated at €4.55 billion, compared to €4.35 billion in 2025, recording an increase of 4.5%.
