in-cyprus 26 October 2025 - by Costas Venizelos
The Cyprus issue is set to undergo a stress test before the end of the year, with third parties believing that the facts have changed following the “election” of Tufan Erhürman to the leadership of the occupation regime, while an attempt is being made to introduce Turkey’s demands within the European Union into the equation.
It appears that a game is being played, where our partners, who favour rapprochement with Ankara, are working behind the scenes. The Cyprus issue is included within this general approach of various and differing interests and pursuits. It’s primarily being put on the agenda to prevent any potential “accidents” resulting from reactions by Nicosia or Athens, without this necessarily guaranteeing a result.
It is clear that the Cyprus issue will return to the foreground as it is pursued by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, who essentially has no other international arena in which to act. It is obvious that the United Nations plays a supporting role in the remaining and significant international issues.
Upcoming Diplomatic Moves
Evidently, much will be decided at the informal Five-Party Conference that the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, will convene at a time yet to be determined. However, the UN SG’s Personal Envoy, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, is expected in Cyprus in the first ten days of November to prepare the ground. It is recalled that a meeting of the Technical Youth Group is being organised by the UN from October 31 to November 3 in Amman, Jordan. María Ángela Holguín will be present at this seminar. The second planned move will take place in early December in Oslo, Norway, and will be an open discussion between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.
However, informed sources in New York and various capitals suggest that the basic work should be done before the end of the current year, as they estimate that mobility will be difficult during the Cypriot Presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2026. This is primarily because the Turkish side will react. Ankara appears to seek to avoid participation in EU summits during the Cypriot Presidency. It will limit itself to technocratic-level contacts. It will also not want discussions on the Cyprus issue itself, as Nicosia will be considered strengthened due to the Presidency.
The Erhürman “Opportunity”
It is clear that most third parties regard Erhürman’s selection to lead the occupation regime as an opportunity. They don’t just compare him to Tatar; they consider him a conciliatory figure who can change the facts on the Cyprus issue regarding the Turkish stance. However, this is not confirmed by the overall behaviour of Tufan Erhürman himself, who adopts a vague policy on the Cyprus issue, so that through constructive ambiguity, everyone interprets it as they wish. Having “good testimony from outside,” he moves between the official Turkish policy for two states and his own rhetoric for a federation, balancing through acrobatics with the aim of his political survival.
Moreover, without referring to “labels” that matter regarding the form of the solution, he confines himself to describing the model. He has described his goal, which is: “…two equal founding states, one of the Turkish Cypriots and the other of the Greek Cypriots, internationally recognised, will sovereignly exercise their powers, in a bilateral, bicommunal system, where the two communities will jointly make decisions on issues such as energy, maritime zones, trade routes, the island’s security, and other issues.”
It is clear from the conditions set by the new leader of the occupation regime that he is aligned with his predecessors. Specifically, the reference that in case of a deadlock, the status of the Turkish Cypriots must change. A series of questions arise regarding this idea, which is not new: Will there be a mechanism for the allocation of responsibilities and who will have this authority? And if the Turkish side is to blame, what will happen? If both are to blame? Furthermore, he raises the issue of setting a timetable, which is inextricably linked to arbitration.
Erhürman’s tactic suits him for survival and also suits Ankara, as it expresses a different facade, which changes style and tone, but nothing in substance. This is because, at the critical moment, the decision will be made by Turkey.
Nicosia’s Stance
The Republic of Cyprus is monitoring the moves of third parties and the Turkish side. What officials in Nicosia note is that everything will be judged at the informal Five-Party meeting. Everyone must take a position on the critical points in front of everyone. Without rhetorical outbursts, but substantially. At the same time, Nicosia knows that the occupation side’s tactic is to shift the responsibility for the failure of the new effort onto the Greek side. This, Ankara believes, will pave the way for the upgrade of the pseudo-state.
The Republic of Cyprus, however, is moving on various levels to inform third parties and to involve them, so that they contribute towards the correct direction of the United Nations’ efforts. The use of its geopolitical assets is always part of the equation.
The Annexation is Happening but not Announced
The statement by the leader of the Turkish far-right MHP party, Devlet Bahçeli, in which he called for the annexation of the occupied territories to Turkey in response to the result of the illegal “elections” in the pseudo-state, was not random. It wasn’t random because Bahçeli is not insignificant, but rather Erdoğan’s government partner, whom the Turkish President needs in the internal political game.
Annexation is not an easy undertaking, and they know this in Turkey. However, it is a real scenario, which was processed and shelved, yet available on demand.
It is recalled that Mustafa Akıncı, in an interview with the Turkish Cypriot newspaper Yeni Düzen in August 2021, stated that Turkey’s goal is the annexation of the occupied territories. He said there is a process of transforming occupied Cyprus into a Turkish province, “which is becoming increasingly apparent in the conditions of non-solution.” Furthermore, he pointed out that the dependence of occupied Cyprus on Turkey is increasing even more. Answering a question about whether the “TRNC” would be annexed to Turkey, Akıncı stated that “this is what is essentially desired, this is the goal in the back of their mind.”
But why would Turkey annex the occupied territories, provoking international reactions? The occupied territories are fully controlled. With the army it has and the control at all levels of the local community in the occupied areas, the region surpasses even Turkish provinces in terms of control. Furthermore, dependency projects, such as the water project, are vital for the occupied areas. These are survival projects. It is also obvious that the occupied areas cannot “breathe” without the remittance from Turkey, which, when it wants to appease some reactions or different “opinions,” shuts off the tap.
Consequently, annexation, or integration, is being set up gradually; it exists but is not being announced. And it is not announced because they know in Ankara the consequences it would have. Consequences that would affect the strategic pursuits of the occupation side, such as relations with the European Union.
The Arrogant Guest
The Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, appeared arrogant and demanding towards his counterparts in the European Union at the Luxembourg summit. Fidan was a guest, and a last-minute one at that, yet he behaved as if he were the superpower dictating the game. He developed a rationale suggesting that the European Union needs Turkey, not the other way around. He referred to Turkey’s role and highlighted the plan for the Black Sea. Ankara has strategic pursuits, excessive pursuits, but it also wants economic benefit. Hence the demands for visa liberalisation and the upgrade of the Customs Union. Foreign Minister Konstantinos Kombos, during the Luxembourg summit, responded to Fidan, raising issues concerning the principles governing the EU’s relations with member states.
