in-cyprus 22 October 2025
After half a century of deadlock, Cyprus may find itself at the centre of a new, dynamic effort for a solution under Donald Trump.
As a Washington Examiner analysis suggests, the election of a moderate leader in the occupied territories and the shift of the Republic of Cyprus towards the West create a rare opportunity to overcome the “frozen” deadlock. Trump, with his experience in regional agreements such as the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, could offer strategic incentives to Ankara, paving the way for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus.
The publication notes that for half a century, Cyprus has been Europe’s “forgotten” conflict. It has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded following a coup. Today, the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union, while the northern part of the island is under Turkish occupation and is recognised only by Ankara.
Every US president since Jimmy Carter has largely ignored Cyprus. The UN has hosted countless rounds of peace talks that have led nowhere. The division has solidified into a stalemate, with both sides becoming less enthusiastic about finding a solution. Previous attempts to reunify Cyprus have repeatedly collapsed. In 2004, a UN-backed proposal was approved by the Turkish Cypriots but overwhelmingly rejected by the Greek Cypriots, who feared security issues and Turkish influence. The last serious attempt was made in 2017 in Switzerland, where talks between Greece, Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus and the occupied areas collapsed due to the presence of Turkish troops and security guarantees. The same problems continue to obstruct an agreement today.
The “Hope” with Erhurman’s Election and T/C Concerns due to Settlers
However, the ground is changing. Last weekend, Tufan Erhurman, a moderate candidate, defeated the hardliner Ersin Tatar in the north’s elections. Erhurman campaigned for a solution with the government of Greek Cypriots, after years of deadlock and nationalist rhetoric. His victory marks a rare moment of optimism on the island. For Turkish Cypriots, who are weary of political isolation and concerned about the overpopulation of Turkish settlers, his victory is an opportunity to re-examine relations with the free areas.
Time is important. Earlier this year, US Air Force experts assessed the base in Paphos to see if it could support humanitarian operations in the region. The plan is to improve the infrastructure so the base can host a wider range of US aircraft during evacuations or regional crises. Washington has also considered using the British base at Akrotiri to respond to regional crises. As Henry Kissinger once described, Cyprus acts as an “incredible aircraft carrier,” positioned within striking distance of Lebanon, Israel, and the wider Middle East. This geography explains why Washington might find it worthwhile to invest in the island.
Change is happening not only in the occupied territories but also in the free areas. The report emphasises that under the President of the Republic, Nikos Christodoulides, the government is seeking closer ties with Washington and Brussels, a break from alignment with Russia, which for decades has been both a diplomatic partner and a funder. Nicosia has expressed a desire to join NATO, has fought illegal Russian funds in the country, and has pursued closer relations with Israel.
“Ankara sees the island as a security zone in the eastern Mediterranean”
As the Republic of Cyprus turns to the West, the occupied territories remain firmly under the control of Turkey. Approximately 40,000 Turkish soldiers are still there, and Turkey covers most of the region’s expenses, from civil servant salaries to energy and the construction of new buildings. Ankara sees the island as part of its security zone in the eastern Mediterranean and uses it for military purposes. In recent years, Turkey has built new bases and a drone base in the pseudo-state, strengthening its presence. The pseudo-state is highly dependent on Turkey for money and political support, meaning that no progress towards reunification can be made without Ankara’s approval.
This is why the peace process has failed. No one has ever offered Turkey anything worthwhile to abandon its military presence and power projection. The analysis underscores that President Donald Trump may be exactly what this “frozen” conflict needs. He managed to end decades of hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Cyprus could be next.
What Trump Could Offer Ankara
Trump could offer Ankara what the UN never could, such as increased cooperation on defence, or trade and energy deals with European support, in exchange for the withdrawal of Turkish troops and a renewed power-sharing plan on the island.
For decades, Cyprus has been the “graveyard” of diplomats, a conflict where a solution always seemed close but could never be achieved. If the Trump administration chooses to get involved, it could turn this deadlock into a rare foreign policy success and give new momentum to resolving one of Europe’s major divisions.
