Filenews 25 September 2025
By James Stavridis*
In "The Golden Finger" against James Bond, Ian Fleming wrote the following about the shots one receives: "The first time it is accidental, the second time it is a coincidence, the third, a hostile action." Russia has now sent military drones or manned aircraft across NATO's borders three times this month, into the airspace of Poland, Romania and Estonia. This is a hostile act, we cannot deny it.
The alliance has already held consultations under Article IV – which is triggered when a member state feels that its territorial integrity or political independence is threatened. Then could come a comprehensive crisis under Article V, which would require a military response according to NATO's founding principle "one attack on one is an attack on all".
What can the Alliance do to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin's reckless air force strikes? Who will lead the planning and operation for a potential air campaign?
During my four-year tenure as the supreme allied commander in NATO, we struggled to come up with the planning of an air war with Russia. While the alliance has a much larger air force overall, these are scattered across the Atlantic, with much of the firepower based in the continental US.
In addition, while we should be grateful that the alliance has added so many members, this also means that there are 32 different pairs of hands at the wheel. The differences are obvious: language, culture, geography and equipment. The common language of combat is English, and many nations use similar aircraft and communication equipment – but the lack of overall cohesion remains.
Russia, meanwhile, has a single language, a single command and control structure, and a comprehensive package of warplanes manufactured in Russian factories.
If I were a NATO commander today, I would be on the phone with the US Air Force general in charge of NATO's Allied Air Force Command (AIRCOM). Based at the massive Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany, AIRCOM is tasked with managing both the alliance's aviation and space power. It has sophisticated command and control, operates an extensive missile defense system, and conducts allied combat operations over Europe. AIRCOM has thousands of people on staff, four major locations, and a major intelligence and cyber warfare backbone.
Fortunately, the current military commander of the alliance is a very experienced combat pilot: General Alexus Grynkewich. He was a member of my team during my time in NATO and is unwavering, with several thousand hours of flying warplanes. It will know how to prepare for war action in response to further Russian aggression.
The key stance to counter any Russian air invasion already exists: NATO's air patrol operations, which daily monitor more than 30,000 "air movements" across the alliance's area of operations. Radar installations along NATO's borders can detect aircraft that do not use commercial transponders or are not in contact with civil aviation air traffic controllers. This includes, of course, Russian drones and military aircraft.
The rapid reaction fighter jets are ready to take off within minutes from one of NATO's two Combined Air Operations Centers (CAOCs), located in Uedem, Germany, and Torrejon, Spain. Invading aircraft are quickly and efficiently escorted out of NATO airspace, as happened over Estonia last week.
Putin seems to want three things with these incursions: to gain tactical insights into the alliance's reactions, to reduce the number of available aircraft and sensors that now protect Ukraine, and to create divisions in the alliance over how aggressively to react to Russian aircraft. It is time to stop it.
Many possible air reactions come to our minds and are probably being actively considered by NATO. First, the 24-hour coverage of the eastern wing by early warning aircraft, the American E-3 AWACS. NATO has an entire wing of these remarkable air control platforms. Combined with seamless coverage by ground-based radar, AWACS provides a "vast view" of the airborne battlefield from top to bottom and can detect drones flying low or fighters that may escape radar.
Second, NATO could add more fighters to the rapid reaction forces in Germany and Spain: at least a few dozen additional F-35 Lightning, the fifth-generation fighters used by allies, including Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and the United Kingdom. These are the most advanced fighter jets in the world and easily outperform anything that Russia is likely to send across the border.
Other good European fighters include the Swedish Gripens, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and various American-made aircraft, such as the F-15 Strike Eagle and F-18 Hornet. With more than 3,000 fighters at its disposal – about four times Russia's stockpile – the alliance could easily maintain an aerial combat patrol under the control of the AWACS, rather than relying on fighters attacking ground targets.
Third, the alliance should use the many lessons learned from the Ukrainians about Russian drones. These should include measures such as physical barriers, anti-drone drones, inexpensive ground-based directed energy weapons (DEWs) – and electronic interference from EA-18G Growlers and EC-37B Compass Calls. Offensive cyber warfare tools could also disrupt drone swarms.
Finally, and most importantly, the alliance should notify Russia that its rules of engagement are being tightened and that further violations will be met with more assertive responses – reserving the right to shoot down both drones and manned aircraft. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already warned Putin that Poland will shoot down any aircraft that crosses its borders.
Simply escorting Russian fighter jets to their homeland over and over again is not going to attract the Kremlin's attention. NATO's long-term plan should be a full no-fly zone over Ukraine, but for now a full military response to Russian air incursions – both unmanned and piloted – should begin.
*Stavridis is dean emeritus of Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He serves on the boards of directors of Aon, Fortinet and Ankura Consulting Group.
