Filenews 27 August 2025 - by Angelos Nicolaou
Cyprus has experienced three devastating incidents of forest fires in recent years, with extreme weather conditions as a common denominator: Solea in 2016, Arakapas in 2021 and, most recently, the devastating fire in Malia in July 2025. The comparative analysis of the data from the weather stations of the areas shows a clear escalation of the danger of the phenomena, with the factor "wind" proving to be a catalyst.
The fire in Solea, which broke out between 17–22 July 2016, found the area facing extremely dry and thermal conditions. According to the data of the nearest station in Kalopanayiotis, temperatures exceeding 35°C were recorded, with peaks close to 39°C. The relative humidity dropped below 20%-25% during the hot hours, while the winds blew with an average intensity of around 3 meters per second (about 11 km/h), with gusts reaching 8 m./sec. (30 km/h). Although the winds were not characterized as strong, the prolonged drought, combined with the inaccessible mountainous terrain, contributed to the rapid spread of the fire, which left behind huge destruction.
"The measurements clearly show the dangerous sequence of heat – drought – winds associated with the rapid spread of the fire in Solea," according to the Department of Meteorological Service.
Five years later, on July 3-5, 2021, the deadly fire in Arakapas occurred under even more extreme conditions. Data from the weather station in Eptagonia show temperatures of 32–35°C, with a relative humidity of only 12–20%. Winds were a decisive factor this time: gusts of up to 66 km/h (8 Beaufort) caused explosive behaviour of the fire, which spread uncontrollably within a few hours. This incident proved that the presence of strong gusts in a heatwave environment can turn an outbreak into a disaster.
The most alarming incident occurred on July 23-25, 2025 in the community of Malia. The fire started at noon on July 23 and the conditions prevailing at that time reach the definition of so-called explosive fire behaviour. According to the data of the weather station in Malia, at 2:30 p.m. Average wind intensity: 25.6 knots (6 Beaufort). Wind gust: 42.1 knots (~78 km/h, 9 Beaufort). Temperature: 40°C. Relative humidity: 20%.
These are extremely rare conditions. Statistical analysis of the data showed that gusts of this intensity have a probability of only 0.199% and this only in thunderstorms. The worrying element in Malia's case was that the phenomenon occurred in clear sky conditions, without the slightest storm, which makes the episode unprecedented.
Throughout the fire, the Malia weather station was a key monitoring tool, as its measurements were judged to be the most representative for the region. As the director of the Department of Meteorology, Philippos Tymvios, notes in a relevant memorandum to the Minister of Agriculture, the strong gusts not only act as a means of transporting the fire (spot fires), but dramatically enhance its intensity, unpredictably changing its direction.
Also noteworthy is the maximum temperature of 58.3 degrees Celsius recorded at the station at the Kourris dam on July 24 at 00:10 a.m., an indication of the thermal energy released by the fire and even affected neighbouring weather stations.
During the time period at the time of the start of the fire, the meteorological conditions recorded at all stations of the Department of Meteorology were characterized by high temperatures, low levels of relative humidity and moderate northwest winds, which were accompanied by strong gusts.
Wind gusts (instantaneous increases in wind intensity) are a particularly dangerous meteorological condition for the rapid spread of fires. Not only do they carry flammable fuel over long distances, causing new fronts (spot fires), but they amplify the intensity of the flame through increased oxygen supply, causing flare-ups. A particularly worrying factor for the forecast of the evolution of a fire is the fact that gusts often do not follow the average wind direction, resulting in sudden and unpredictable changes in the direction of the fire, which, in combination with the terrain and the particular conditions prevailing in the area, sharply increase the operational risk.
Comparison of pyrometeorological conditions for the three fires
The analysis of the three major fires reveals the escalation of the danger:
In 2016, Solea was hit by a prolonged drought, with high temperatures and low humidity supplying the fuel, with moderate winds, which, however, were sufficient for difficult extinguishment.
In 2021, Arakapas was hit by the combination of heat wave and stormy winds, which caused an unusually fast and deadly spread.
In 2025, in Malia, Cyprus was faced with an even rarer and more dangerous phenomenon, almost "explosive", temperature of 40°C, relative humidity of 20% and gusts of 42 knots.
During the fire in Solea (2016), temperatures reached up to 39°C, with relative humidity dropping to 15%. Despite the fact that the winds fluctuated at moderate levels (gusts up to 18 knots, 5 Beaufort), the prolonged dry heat combined with the mountainous terrain contributed to the rapid spread of the fire.
In Arakapas (2021), the episode occurred in heat wave conditions (maximum ~35°C) and very low humidity (12%). However, the determining factor was the strong wind gusts that amounted to 36 knots (8 Beaufort), leading to explosive behaviour of the fire and an extremely rapid spread.
In the case of Malia (2025), even more extreme conditions were observed, with a temperature of about 40°C, relative humidity at 20% and gusts that reached 42 knots (9 Beaufort). The combination of heat wave and almost stormy winds created conditions of maximum danger, characteristic of "explosive" fire behaviour.
The analysis shows that, while in all three incidents the common denominator was intense dry heat, the gradation of the intensity of the winds was the determining factor that differentiated the evolution and destructiveness of the fires.
This study is not only a documentation of the past, but a strong warning signal for the future. In a climate-changing environment, the monitoring and forecasting of pyrometeorological conditions becomes critical, not only for the prevention, but for the strategic management of disasters that threaten lives, property and natural wealth.
