Filenews 3 August 2025 - by Theodoros Zachariadis
Times are not favourable for supporters of the green transition. In several recent discussions, if someone touches on environmental issues, there are interlocutors who look condescendingly and start talking about energy costs, about Trump, about China not reducing its emissions, about the European Union that has been raped and so on.
Since these reports have started to become candy on the lips of many in Cyprus, I thought of writing some facts, with the certainty that it will not change the opinion of those who are practically indifferent to dealing with the climate crisis (even if they declare themselves "concerned" or "worried" in the Eurobarometer).
At least, however, I hope that those who vacillate will not be troubled.
Here are some myths
– "Only Europe reduces its emissions and this makes no difference worldwide"
Mistake. Many countries around the world are reducing their emissions, each at a different rate.
Ten years ago, the basic prediction of scientists was that we are heading towards global warming (relative to pre-industrial levels) by over 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. Today, the forecast has changed. Thanks to the measures taken by most countries and thanks to the reduction in the cost of many green technologies, today's forecast is that we are heading towards global warming of around 3 degrees Celsius.
Is it a little? No, it's too much – here we see what's going on in the world right now that we're at 1.5 degrees, so imagine what can happen with 3 degrees of warming.
But humanity has begun to change course. We need a lot more effort – but don't say that these things don't happen. If governments achieve what they have publicly pledged to, then we may reach 2.5 degrees Celsius. Such warming is still very high – but the story continues. And while governments may be wishful thinking and distrustful of their commitments, the business opportunities that arise from advances in green technologies often outweigh the hesitation of governments.
– "China is doing nothing"
China's energy needs are growing sharply. The country uses whatever energy resource serves it to meet these needs. But be careful: While on the one hand it continues to build coal plants, on the other hand it is a world champion in the installation of renewable energy sources.
In 2024, it installed more than the rest of the world combined. In 2024 alone, electricity production from renewables in China exceeded what the entire European Union has produced throughout its history. The result is that for the first time – with the exception of the pandemic period – China's greenhouse gas emissions have fallen over the past twelve months. Reaches; No. But something very important is changing.
– "Cyprus is too small and cannot bear the cost"
The main energy cost that afflicts the Cypriot economy is electricity. However, the high electricity prices are NOT due to renewable energy sources and I think the readers of this newspaper are well aware of this, with its very well-documented energy articles.
Also, Cyprus does not have that heavy industry that is most affected by the green transition. It has no chemical industry, steel industry, refineries or automobile industry. Can you find me one (1) job that is at risk from the green transition in Cyprus?
– "Europe is in a hurry with the green transition"
Whether we are in a hurry or delayed will not be told by any business or politician. Nature tells us so. The consequences of the climate crisis are coming faster and more intensely than climate scientists told us.
Until recently, estimates by scholars and international organizations indicated that the impact of the climate crisis on economic growth by the end of the 21st century would not be dramatic.
Studies on which the International Monetary Fund and the network of the world's Central Banks relied on the green transition estimated the economic impact of climate change in Cyprus by 2100 at 3-7% of the Gross Domestic Product. Similar were their predictions for the rest of the world.
Until 2024, however, when things changed. Recent economic analyses, each using different methods, result in much higher negative forecasts.
Two independent studies estimate an impact of 5-9% of GDP around 2050 or a little later, i.e. 30-35 years from now. Taking into account the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance for the Cypriot GDP, this impact corresponds to €2.5-5 billion in 2050, at current prices. Because the effect will be gradual, assuming that it will increase linearly from 2030, the cumulative costs could reach €15-30 billion in the period 2030-2050 at current prices.
Another study estimates even greater negative impacts, as it examines the impact of extreme weather events on economic activity, and predicts a reduction of more than 10% of GDP in the Middle East region even from an increase in the average temperature of 1 degree Celsius (which has already been exceeded in our region). These effects will be "permanent", i.e. they will not be a natural disaster that can be remedied within a short time, but will affect economic activity over many years or decades.
The cost of the climate crisis and our daily lives
There are reasons to consider the estimates of these studies conservative, i.e. underestimates, and other reasons to judge that some negative effects are overestimated by the studies.
However, in any case, the international organizations took them seriously and did not take long to change their forecasts. The European Central Bank, while considering losses of 5% of GDP in the EU from uncontrolled climate change in 2100, adopted the new forecasts last year and estimates 33% cumulative losses if there are no measures!
And if you say that 2100 is a long way off, central banks have also looked at the short-term effects, i.e. for the next five years. They published their results a few days ago: some extreme natural phenomena in Europe in the next two years (a combination of heatwaves, droughts and floods, what we have seen in recent years) and the negative impact can reach 5% of GDP. Even if such phenomena occur only outside Europe, in regions of Asia on which international trade depends, the negative impact on the Eurozone could still amount to 2% of its GDP before 2030.
And inflationary pressures are all around us: a bunch of extreme weather events of recent years around the globe have led to temporary or long-term large price increases in basic goods.
The price of olive oil soared by 50% due to drought in Southern Europe in 2022-23. Local heatwaves have increased vegetable prices in India and Korea by more than 70 percent and 80 percent in the southwestern U.S., rice prices in Japan by 48 percent, and international coffee prices from Brazil by 50 percent.
Floods of 2022 increased local vegetable prices by 50% in Pakistan and by 300% in Australia! These were not caused by ordinary bad weather that recurs periodically, but by extreme phenomena, which were completely unprecedented in the past.
* Professor at the Cyprus Institute
