Donald Trump's references to the possibility of other states joining the "Abraham Accords" are one of the most important and at the same time underestimated developments in the shadow of the Israel-Iran war.
While the Cassandras prophesied destabilization of the Middle East, the expansion of the Agreements could lead to a less 'radical' and more stable political environment, resulting in an increase in available energy resources worldwide. Such a change in the global balance of power may be welcome, as China and Russia realize that the United States is not kidding.
Iran supported Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 to derail the "Abraham Accords", and in particular to prevent Saudi Arabia from participating in them. The "Abraham Accords," the most important foreign policy achievements of Trump's first term, aimed to normalize Israel's relations with Middle Eastern states where the Muslim population is the majority. There was hope that interaction and economic ties could gradually resolve the "Gordian knot", i.e. the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, reducing tensions. Iran's disruption of this process was both ideological and strategic. Iran's hegemonic ambitions in the region and its strategy to "encircle" Israel and attack it through its proxies were threatened by Trump's initiative.
Whether one believes that a broken clock correctly tells the time twice a day, or believes that the result is due to strategic foresight, Trump seems to have achieved what he wanted in his "wonderful little war." Iran's nuclear and military capability has been reduced, its network of proxies has been crushed, the friendly Assad regime in Syria has been removed, and the quagmire that would result from regime change in Tehran has been avoided. The global economy avoided recession after Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz – possibly this is also due to China's. The U.S. position, both geopolitically and in the energy sector, strengthened after the strikes against Iran, with Brent prices hovering around $67. barrel, at the time these lines are written. The success of U.S. strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities may still be questioned and Tehran's "nuclear aims" may not be clear, but the consequences for Iran's neighbours and proxies are obvious.
The "Abraham Accords" are being expanded
The expansion of the "Abraham Accords" is the most likely direct result of Iran's humiliation and foreshadows the undermining of Iranian power. An obvious candidate to join the "Agreements", and in my opinion and according to the Israeli media, is Azerbaijan: a majority Shiite secular state that maintains excellent relations with Israel. On the other hand, with Iran. If Azerbaijan joins the Agreements, the European energy market will be the major direct beneficiary, since Azerbaijani energy resources could be channelled to the West without being an obstacle to Azerbaijan's existing cooperation with Israel.
Today, Iran, unable to confront Israel and the United States, chooses the battle against Azerbaijan, spreading fake news and unleashing threats of "retaliation" for Baku's alleged aid to Jerusalem during the "12-Day War." Azerbaijan's entry into the "Abraham Accords" will have a deterrent effect against any aggressive moves by Iran, clearly stating that it will not enter into a conflict with the Islamic Republic for control of the energy-rich region of the Caucasus.
There are other promising candidates to join the "Abraham Accords". Syria, if it finally participates in the "Agreements", will be an impressive example of a state's ability to abandon the "Axis of Evil" and embark on a path towards development. It would also be a way for Syrian President Ahmed al-Saara to prove that his claims that he has changed are not just words. Such a development would also pave the way for the country's economic development by tapping into its untapped energy resources. It should be noted that Azerbaijan played an active role in facilitating talks between Turkey and Israel regarding regime change in Syria.
Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which, like Azerbaijan, are largely secular Muslim countries and have good relations with Israel, could also be excellent additions to the "Abraham Accords." In general, they are energy-exporting countries and their revenues depend on commercial activity. Their inclusion in an emerging geoeconomic context under the auspices of the "Abraham Accords" could contribute economically to strengthening them against Russian and Chinese influence, while at the same time strengthening growth and ties with the West.
China's Turn and the "Abraham Accords"
At a time when Tehran found itself in a difficult position, its allies folded under American pressure. Russia, trapped in Ukraine, refused to act. Beijing could support Iran to defend their trade relationship. Instead, China chose to buy energy at low prices for fear that further escalation in the Middle East would hurt its economy. In the wake of Trump's victory, Beijing is facing difficult choices and opportunities.
The fact that China has abandoned Iran does not mean a rupture. This action may convince some that China is a "paper tiger," while for others, especially Iran's Arab adversaries, it is seen as a sign of prudence. China is much more dependent on the rest of the Arab states than on Iran. Moreover, Beijing's only hope of expanding its influence in the Middle East rests with the Arab states – and the Arab states, which are likely to join the "Abraham Accords", are the key to China's normalization of its contacts with the Middle East by circumventing Iranian hegemonic ambitions.
Among the candidates to join the agreements, China already has close relations with Central Asian states and has expressed interest in investing in Syria. China maintains a realistic, growing strategic relationship with Azerbaijan rooted in energy, infrastructure and regional connectivity. Thus, China may find it strategically useful to support the "Abraham Accords" not only for its goals in the Middle East, but also to defuse controversy over the repression of Muslim Uyghurs in China's Xinjiang region.
The "Abraham Accords" can evolve into a coalition of states with which the United States will deal credibly. In this context, Israel is a significant asset. Moreover, a Muslim country's ability to maintain harmonious relations with Israel is seen as indicative of its potential for constructive engagement with the United States. This strategic vision places the "Abraham Accords" as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, utilizing Israel's role in promoting a network of allied states, thereby strengthening U.S. influence and energy security globally. This strategic vision, however, is more recognized in Beijing and Tehran than in Washington.
