It was a matter of time. When two such big "I's" come together, conflict is inevitable. The Trump-Musk rift was therefore expected by many . What they didn't expect was that it would have such intensity, toxicity and such serious threats.
Elon Musk took things to the extreme, commenting that Trump would not have been elected without him and hinting at the US president's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Trump's response? He threatened to cancel government contracts and subsidies to the billionaire businessman's companies.
The controversy has already affected markets — with Tesla's stock plunging as much as 15 percent — and raises serious questions about the impact a potential rupture would have on the U.S. economy, defense and space policy.
According to data from FedScout and the New York Times, Musk's companies have received more than $38 billion from the federal government over the past 20 years, either through direct contracts or in the form of grants, loans and tax credits.
SpaceX is the main recipient of these partnerships:
- In 2024 alone, it received 3.8 billion euros. dollars in government contracts
- From 2008 to the present, the total value of its contracts with NASA, the Air Force and other services exceeds $20 billion. dollars
- The company is the only provider that can currently transport astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
- It has an exclusive contract to dismantle the ISS in 2030, a critical project to avoid an accident with the largest artificial object in orbit.
- In addition, SpaceX is involved in the design of the Artemis mission for the return of the U.S. to the Moon, having undertaken the design and construction of the lunar landing platform with the Starship system. Blue Origin also has a contract, but it is expected to be delayed by at least 7-10 years.
At the same time, SpaceX is also critical for the US Department of Defense, since:
- It undertakes the launch of national security cargoes, with its fleet of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.
- It provides the Starlink satellite system, while its military version (Starshield) has been adopted for exclusive use by the U.S. military.
- It undertakes the launch of national security cargoes, with its fleet of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.
- It provides the Starlink satellite system, while its military version (Starshield) has been adopted for exclusive use by the U.S. military.
Subsidies to Tesla
In contrast, Tesla is not so dependent on direct government contracts. From 2008 to 2024, it has received less than 42 million euros. in direct contracts.
However, the company benefits greatly from:
- Tax credits of up to $7,500 per electric vehicle for consumers.
- Subsidy for all leased vehicles through the commercial arm of the IRS.
- Subsidies for solar power installations and Powerwall.
- Selling emission credits to other car manufacturers, with support from California, the EU and, to a lesser extent, the federal government.
The consequences of a possible cancellation
The cancellation of the contracts with SpaceX would cause far-reaching consequences:
- The International Space Station would be in danger of being left without carrying crews and supplies, and it would be impossible to safely dismantle it in 2030.
- The Artemis mission would face severe delays, potentially leaving the field free for the Chinese space program.
- U.S. security in space would be affected, as the United Launch Alliance faces certification problems for its new rocket and is not ready to take on all the missions.
- Military communications via Starlink/Starshield would have to be replaced with alternative – and possibly more expensive or less reliable – networks.
- For Tesla, the main risk is not the loss of contracts but the tightening of the regulatory framework.
The government could:
- To freeze the approval of Full Self Driving and Autopilot systems through NHTSA.
- Delay the development of Starship and the expansion of SpaceX's facilities through the FAA.
- Limit or abolish tax credits for EVs, hurting demand.
Political and geopolitical costs
While Trump argues that cancelling the contracts will save "billions," the cost of such a decision is likely to outweigh the benefits. The services provided by SpaceX are faster, cheaper and more reliable than those offered by competitors or government agencies, which explains why the Biden administration had not made such moves, even though it was criticized by the Left.
Cutting off these partnerships would be a strategic mistake, experts warn, unless they are immediately replaced by corresponding solutions – something that does not seem realistic at the moment.
