Widespread Israeli attacks on targets inside Iran, Tehran's retaliation, internal cracks in the Islamic Republic's interior, and the shift in U.S. policy under Donald Trump are reshaping the entire Middle East.
The question that comes up again is whether we are in the antechamber of a generalized war or on the threshold of a regime overthrow process in Tehran.
Israel no longer hides that this is its goal. Benjamin Netanyahu's emphasis on his proclamations of fighting against the Iranian leadership and not against the Iranian people, his remark to Iranian citizens that "now is your chance" clearly state the pursuit.
But the U.S. probably wants to push things in that direction. As long as Ali Khamenei is in charge, there will hardly be a diplomatic solution.
The goal is to overthrow the regime from within: Operation Rising Lion, which began with the pounding of dozens of Iranian military and nuclear facilities, was unprecedented. Israel seeks not only to prevent Iran's nuclear development but also to weaken the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards.
The Israeli reach has shown that it can penetrate into the heart of Iranian territory.
Many analysts believe that this escalation may not be limited to halting the nuclear program, but is also indirectly aimed at creating conditions to destabilize the regime.
As Jonathan Pannikov of the Atlantic Council notes, if Israeli attacks extend to administrative centers and internal power mechanisms, then it should be seen that Israel is pursuing more than one tactical goal: a strategic shock that can cause internal collapse.
The tactics of the Americans
Donald Trump, in his second term, has reactivated the strategy of "maximum pressure". Negotiations on the nuclear program have not been successful, and even the use of U.S. military means to destroy underground nuclear facilities is being considered.
The Trump administration seems to view Tehran as weakened, both because of the economic collapse and because of the deepening demographic divide. New generations, especially Generation Z, demand the overthrow of the theocratic regime.
Many U.S. officials do not rule out the possibility that a well-coordinated external pressure (e.g., military aggression by Israel) will trigger an internal explosion — a "controlled collapse" scenario.
Iranian society is changing
The unrest that erupted after the murder of Mahsa Amini in 2022 opened a new chapter in Iran's internal history. Women, young people, workers — broader layers of society — are now expressing a generalized aversion to the regime, not only to repression and inequality, but to its own theocratic identity.
Generation Z — children of the 2000s — directly challenges any notion of religious authority, demands individual freedoms, unfettered internet access, and political participation.
The shift in social attitudes is profound: young people do not see Israel as an enemy, do not consider support for Hezbollah and the Houthis as a priority, and do not identify with the regime's anti-Western rhetoric. On the contrary, the majority of citizens seem to be looking for a rapprochement with the West and consider that economic growth passes through openness and normalization.
The protests, symbolic songs such as Baray, and the collapse of voter turnout (just 40% in 2024) show a society withdrawing its consent.
More and more Iranians — even from the regime's hardline core — are openly wondering what will happen when 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei dies. The inevitable succession threatens to open rifts not only at the base but also at the top of the system of power.
But what will follow?
The possibility of overthrowing the regime promises a lot of good things, but it is also accompanied by risks. As analysts warn, the collapse of theocracy does not guarantee democracy.
If the theocratic regime is overthrown, the most likely scenario in the first instance is the seizure of power by the Revolutionary Guards – the most hardline and militarized part of the regime. Such an eventuality could lead to an even more authoritarian regime, determined to regain control by force, both at home and abroad.
Washington is divided. On the one hand, there are strategists who believe that a targeted push — a combination of military pressure, economic sanctions, and strengthening domestic opposition — can accelerate the collapse.
On the other hand, there is strong concern that a disorderly transition could result in either bloodshed or a "Guard-occupied" state apparatus, with no guarantee of democratization, and with a high risk of a generalized war in the Middle East.
It's not Iraq or Libya, but...
Iran is not Iraq and it is not Libya. Its geopolitical position, its military power and its ideological networks throughout the region make any external intervention of multiple complexity and risk.
Moreover, a destabilized Tehran may accelerate its nuclear program at the expense of survival.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has never been so isolated, so weakened, and so contentious at home. Israeli attacks, economic collapse and popular anger are converging at a dangerous juncture. The regime may stand up for a while longer.
But history often changes overnight. And perhaps, in the end, the overthrow is not only a pursuit of the Iranian regime's opponents — but the only possible outcome of its own decay.
